Author: Shiro Armstrong

Ryan Manuel (China specialist in the MPhil program in Oxford) writes to me in response to my Japan-China op ed I referred to earlier :

. . . you are arguing that economic incentives are driving political reconciliation. However, what makes this argument relevant in the piece is that you are arguing that there is a chronological element to this. I think this chronological window of opportunity may be worth calling out early in the piece? The short-term expediency (Olympics, Fukuda, LTTA and BIT anniversary) is meeting some long-term shifts that are increasing economic incentives (namely, climate change and trade desires) with the possibility of allowing the hot economic relations to thaw the cold political ties.

The reason I am trying to spell this out is that I think it may also be worth pointing out the importance of this for Australia. Our repositioning as a regional (if not global) player in climate change, and historic contribution to trade negotiations within the region, would make any agreement between Japan and China highly advantageous for Australia and a great boon for Rudd.

. . . you talk about the incentive for Japan to improve environmental measures (the yellow fog over Kyushu). . . there is large incentive politically in improving the environment for China as well. The large number of protests and growing environmental movements altering politics at provincial and county levels (see Shanghai railway, Yuxi coal mine etc) also make environmental protection highly advantageous domestically. So in this way economic and political incentives to protect the environment coalesce fortuitously for both of them.

As usual, he’s on the money.

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1. Can China lift Japan out of recession?
2. Improving Japan-China relations and the global trading system
3. Japan’s China policy: No re-adjustment towards Beijing
4. China: Japan’s Rising Power Conundrum

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