As China prepares to host the 2008 Olympics and display the results of its great economic progress to the world, the study by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the East Asia Institute of South Korea (EAI) finds that in the estimation of most Americans and many Asians, China still has a way to go to claim the world’s full recognition as a multifaceted power. In terms of soft power in Asia—the ability to wield influence by indirect, non-military means, whether by persuasion or attraction—China ranks well below the United States in the estimation of most of the Asians surveyed. In addition, the survey results show a worry-some disconnect between American and Chinese opinions of each other’s countries. American feelings toward China have deteriorated over a four-year period, as measured through the Chicago Council’s 2004 and 2006 Global Views surveys. Chinese feelings toward the United States have remained largely positive compared to the results of the 2006 study.
Clearly, China is recognized by its neighbours as the future leader of Asia, but its rise does not mean
U.S. influence is waning.
The issue is how resilient is American projection and dominance of soft power in the region. Maybe it is a temporary phenomenon – even if temporary means a decade or two. Maybe it’s not temporary but a longer term structural phenomenon. Certainly it has much to do with America’s openness and democracy and America’s ability, to quote a senior Chinese cadre anonymously, ‘to get rid of bad leaders when they make mistakes’. It also has to do with the strength and openness of higher education in America and the intellectual creativity of American society.
If China is to knock the United States off the top slot, a key to winning gold will be transition to democratic politics and an open intellectual environment. And corollary pay-off might be reversal of the disconnect between American and Chinese opinions of each other’s countries.
Soft power surely lags hard power though. It is rare that you have a country which has soft power before it has considerable economic and military power (France?).
One could argue that if China is to knock the US off the top slot for soft power, they should just concentrate on knocking them off the top spot in economic and military power and then the rest will come naturally.
Which way, up or down? The argument is that America’s Middle Eastern adventures — successful through the application of pre-eminent, if overstretched, hard power — have seen the corrosion of America’s soft power.
The evidence is not there yet. And the question is whether this is just a lag on the way down or a structural phenomenon.
In an era of ultimate hard power it is not so clear a priori what the relationship between soft and hard power is (witness Japan).
Yes, you could argue that hard power conquers all, as did the Soviet leadership in persuading itself that there were no internal contradictions in that strategy not so long ago!