Since Aso, who is now LDP General Secretary, is widely seen as positioning himself for taking the Prime Ministership after Fukuda, not going to Yasukuni is a sign of the underlying importance of the Sino-Japan relationship for Japan and Aso’s recognition of this.

Aso’s base is from the right. He is a revisionist, and he is widely regarded as unfriendly towards China. In 2006, as Foreign Minister, he said it was desirable for the Emperor should visit the shrine. Fukushima, the Social Democratic Party (DSP) leader said Aso:

…ignored the constitutional principle of separation of politics and religion, as well as the severe consequences caused by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visits to the Yasukuni Shrine.

Aso’s response?

The more China voices [opposition], the more one feels like going there. It’s just like when you’re told ‘Don’t smoke cigarettes,’ it actually makes you want to smoke. It’s best [for China] to keep quiet.

In the past a visit by Aso to Yasukuni might have seemed on the cards but there are now too many business and strategic interests that favour avoiding a freeze in the relationship like that which occurred when Koizumi visited Yasukuni between 2001 and 2006.

The political instinct in Japan is that cold political relations with China are damaging to the economic relationship on which Japan is increasingly dependent and a Prime Ministerial aspirant Aso now seems to agree.