Author: Tobias Harris, Observing Japan

With Fukuda Yasuo’s resignation, there is little question that the frontrunner to replace him (perhaps the only candidate to replace him) is Aso Taro.

Mr. Aso may regret it.

Taking the helm with the LDP in even greater shambles than it was when he ran against Mr. Fukuda in September 2007 to succeed Abe Shinzo, a Prime Minister Aso would have to rush to sort out a new cabinet lineup (or would he keep Mr. Fukuda’s second?) and sort out his agenda. Provided that he can wave off demands for a general election, the autumn extraordinary session will now be starting closer to the end of September, leaving the government even less time to push its stimulus package and an extension of the MSDF mission through the Diet. The latter looks increasingly unlikely, no matter how resolutely Mr. Aso asserts that it must be done. Moreover, it is unlikely that Mr. Aso would have any more control over Komeito than Mr. Fukuda, Mr. Aso’s supposed “pipeline” to Komeito notwithstanding.

In these circumstances, the pressure for a general election immediately may prove irresistible.

But Mr. Aso has finally climbed to the top of the greasy pole.

For a look at how he went from defeated party presidential candidate to prohibitive favorite to succeed Mr. Fukuda, see this post, this article at the website of the Far Eastern Economic Review, and this post on Mori Yoshiro’s endorsement of Mr. Aso.

There will be lots of talk in the coming days about Mr. Aso’s conservatism. While undoubtedly true, it is not the most important factor in understanding how the coming months will play out. Mr. Aso’s popularity is undeniable. The voting public may be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and certainly won’t hold his conservatism against him should he find the right way to deliver the message that under his leadership the government will be more responsive to people’s hardships than under his predecessors or the DPJ. It’s possible that enough voters will buy that message and return the LDP with a slim majority. While a slim majority will not “untwist” the Diet, Mr. Aso would use his popular appeal to claim it as a mandate and appeal directly to the public over the heads of “opposition forces” in the LDP and the opposition camp, a la Koizumi Junichiro.

Whether he has the deftness to pull off such a feat is one question; whether the circumstances will permit it is another. I’m dubious about the possibility of the LDP’s riding out the chaos under the leadership of Mr. Aso. I think the LDP has exhausted its line of credit with the public, and will find itself cut off at election time. The public may be ready to resolve the divided Diet by delivering the lower house to the DPJ.

Expect that the first task for Mr. Aso will be buying time, trying to make the case that an election does not need to be held immediately — perhaps an argument like the government cannot afford to be distracted by an election when the economy is faltering and when urgent action is needed to address the insecurities of the people.

Related articles:

1. Japan: Nakagawa Shoichi and the end of an era
2. Japan: Has Aso made up his mind about an election?

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008 at 1:56 am and is filed under Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.