Author: Frank Jotzo

“Crisis may cut greenhouse emissions”, AAP says after asking me about it. Well up to a point – and quite possibly the opposite in the longer term.

Recession in the US slows energy demand, think of people travelling less, demand for manufactured goods dropping and housing construction on ice. A similar story will play out elsewhere depending on how strong the effect of financial market turmoil is on the real economy. But it is likely to be a short-term dip in growth rates, with levels of annual emissions not changing much.

The bigger effect could be in the medium to longer term, driving up emissions if the financial crisis delays private investment in clean technology and diverts political attention away from climate change. Already the crisis is being used as an argument against ambitious action on climate change. Including in Europe, which claims global leadership on climate change. Policy needs backbone now, not to let upheaval in financial markets undermine long-term policy objectives including climate change mitigation.

A decisive factor for the globe is China, which is poised to dominate global emissions in a business-as-usual scenario. Will China’s economic growth, and therefore energy and emissions growth, be cut by much for long? Probably not. Will China delay investment in low-carbon technology and policies to curb greenhouse gas emissions? That would be the bad news.