Thanks for you post on the possible political effects of the current global recession for Japan. I agree with your assessment that the Japanese political elite has failed to come up with effective policy to end the long stagnation of the Japanese economy. Particularly, the last three Prime Ministers have been unable to address the problems facing Japan in the last few years. Hopefully the global recession will break the LDP’s hold on power and reinvigorate the political system. Although there does not appear to be a viable alternative to the LDP in the DJP, couldn’t a major election loss split the LDP? I think the most effective way to change the political system would be such a split in the LDP, separating the more conservative faction from the reformist factions. This would introduce a real competition of ideas into the Japanese political system. In order to reach a competitive system, the DJP may have to win several elections to induce change in the LDP’s staid party structure. The past 8 years with Koizumi’s reforms, a succession of three different Prime Ministers, and the current economic crisis all point to a likely crisis of legitimacy for the LDP. Do you see that as a likely outcome or do you think that Japanese politics will muddle along as usual?

While I found your article extremely engaging, I have one point of minor contention. You state that Taro Aso “leaves behind a country tottering on the brink of ruin.” Don’t you think that is a bit of an exaggeration? It is precisely because Japanese people have suffered relatively little from the last 20 years of varying degrees of political ineptness that the system continues the muddle along. In fact compared to the EURO zone and the U.S., Japan’s recession seems that it will be relatively minor. In fact, given Japan’s relatively healthy banking system it seems to possess a unique advantage in an international financial meltdown. As a recent article on Bloomberg.com stated, “Japan’s got a fairly straightforward problem: it’s experiencing an export-driven recession…it’s nasty, but not particularly complicated. The rest of the world has a financial system disaster on its hands.”What is your opinion on this line of thought? Thanks again, and I look forward to reading your future posts.

Cole