In experiments that have belated attracted the interest of policy-makers, social psychologists asked questions like: “which is more likely, (a) natural disasters causing fatalities, or (b) earthquakes causing fatalities?”. Many answered (b), even though logically (a) encompasses (b) as well other natural disasters (like floods) that can cause further fatalities. More concrete events or bits of information (earthquakes, rather than natural disasters generally) tend to stick in our minds. This “availability” heuristic or bias is one of many “irrational” shortcuts we often take when making decisions. Could it be affecting me, leading to an over-emphasis on sightings of Chinese tour groups and diverse Western tourists here in Kyoto?

Probably not. Kyoto City Hall kindly provided some data. On the one hand, there were some increases in foreign students in Kyoto particularly between 2000 (2900 students) and 2003 (4314); but there were similar increases nation-wide (53640 students in 2000, 98135 in 2003), and numbers have leveled off subsequently. (Most of the 4513 students in Kyoto this year are recorded as from China, then Korea, but some of those or their parents may have been born in Japan.)

On the other hand, tourists from abroad who overnighted in Kyoto increased 15.5% in 2007, a new record of 926,000 for the fourth year running (but out of almost 50 million tourists, who collectively spent over A$10 billion!) City Hall attributes this to setting up information centres in Taiwan and the US, with earlier publicity drives also aimed at Australia, Korea and China. Kyoto City also highlights efforts to link into the government’s “Visit Japan Campaign”, coordinating for example with Hokkaido to attract visitors (skiers!) from Australia. There is also now a Kyoto Winter Special and an official Kyoto Travel Guide website. (The Australian Network for Japanese Law also plays a small but innovative role by bringing together law students from Australia and the Asia-Pacific, with students mainly from Ritsumeikan Law School, for the Kyoto Seminar in Japanese Law every February.)

But these rises should be kept in the context of nation-wide increases in foreign visitor numbers over recent years. According to the Japan National Tourist Organization, there were 4.3 million arrivals over January-June this year, including 3.1 million tourists (a 13.7% increase); 5.9 million over 2007 (18.3% growth); and 4.9 million over 2006. So the country seems to have been doing well despite the thoughtless public comments of Transport Minister Nariaki Nakayama, forced to resign a few months ago. Even if Taro Aso delivers his own further gaffe about foreigners or international relations, as was his wont before becoming Prime Minister, tourists will probably still wish to visit Japan. Yet economic realities are likely to remain important, and tourist arrivals dropped in August and especially September. That surely reflects the sudden (and quite bizarre) rapid appreciation of the yen, along with the global financial crisis undermining consumer confidence world-wide.

Anyway, it seems that it wasn’t just me, but perhaps it wasn’t just Kyoto.