Many had already been made by his predecessor. For instance, he called for united efforts to deal with the ongoing economic crisis. But Bush had already introduced huge and unprecedented economic rescue plans. He talked about withdrawing from Iraq. But Bush had already started the process and it is not clear how Obama can quicken it. On the international front, he promised to strengthen alliances and work with other countries. But Bush had also been doing this for a number of years.

For good reasons, change is even less likely to come about in US policy towards China. Following an ill-conceived attempt to highlight the conflicts of the relationship, the Bush Administration later embraced a more pragmatic policy towards China and relations were stable and constructive by the time he left office. Judging by what has been said, Obama and his people appear to see little need to make any significant change to it.

Yes, Obama is determined to reverse Bush’s policy on climate change. He promised that the US would take the lead on this issue again. Against a background of economic crisis and falling oil prices, he may not have the necessary leeway to realize it.

At the end of the day, people may find ‘continuity’, rather than ‘change’, may be a better word to describe Obama’s foreign policy. Obama is more likely to continue the more prudent, the more pragmatic, and indeed the more multilateralist policy of the second phase of the Bush Administration.

Against this background, China has good reason to be optimistic about Sino-US relations in the days to come.

Three issues may still create problems. One is the RMB exchange rate. Obama raised it as a major cause of US trade imbalance with China during the presidential campaign. Under normal circumstances, it is not a serious problem. After all, RMB has already appreciated by about 20 per cent during the past two years and it is likely to edge more in that direction in the future. Moreover, it is generally believed that rapid RMB appreciation may not be in the best interests of the US nor for China. If the current economic crisis worsens, Obama may feel pressured to push this issue to divert people’s attention from domestic woes.

Another issue is human rights and Tibet. 2009 will see quite a number of anniversaries including the fiftieth anniversary of the Tibetan rebellion/liberation and twentieth anniversary of the Tiananmen incident. Many in the world would like to make a big issue out of them. And Hillary Clinton is known to be a good personal friend of the Dalai Lama. The two countries are likely to find each other bickering over how to interpret these events.

Finally, there is the issue of excessive expectations on China on the part of the US. As China’s influence in the world grows, there is an increasing expectation that China should do more to address world problems. Some want China to help deal with the economic crisis. Some want China to get involved in the Iranian issue. Some want China to take a lead in climate change. Some want China to ensure progress with the six party talks over the Korean nuclear issue.

Given China’s limited capacity, resources and willingness to address these issues, many are likely to be disappointed with China’s behaviour and some are likely to attack China for dragging the chain. It is not clear whether Obama’s team can successfully lower such expectations and minimize their negative repercussions on the relationship.

As the Obama Administration gets into office, China-US relations are more important than ever. The complex nature of the relationship requires sensitivity, wisdom and skill to manage constructively. It is the hope of many in China that when time comes the Obama Administration will make choices appropriate to ensure a stable, cooperative and constructive relationship between the two countries.

Jia Qingguo is Professor in the School of International Studies at Peking University.