http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2009/04/02/japans-security-kabuki/ Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific Sun, 12 Feb 2012 22:50:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2009/04/02/japans-security-kabuki/comment-page-1/#comment-18323 Aurelia George Mulgan Fri, 03 Apr 2009 08:02:23 +0000 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/?p=3235#comment-18323 I would have thought that hitting rocket debris with missile defence weapons (using either the SM-3 or PAC-3 system) will just create more debris. I can't help feeling that the defence drum beat that you hear coming from the Japanese government carries a domestic political objective as well as a defence one. On NHK it's been the lead item on the news each day for about the last week, and the public has been fed with stirring film of the deployments of both the Aegis destroyers and the PAC-3 systems (all grist to the government's mill). What the North Koreans are learning/testing is a) just how much the United States and the rest of the world are prepared to do to assist Japan on this one (practically nothing); and b) just how ineffective Japan's counter-strategies are - same old, same old - apart from actually testing out its MD system. As Tobias says, this is a high-risk strategy, because using it and having it fail will be politically costly. On the other hand, this wouldn't be the first time that either the US or the joint Japan-US MD system has failed. But as a missile expert said recently (I think on EAF), the NK missile/rocket launch is ideal for actually testing out Japan's missile defence (in which it has invested such vast sums). Let's hope it's not 'back to the drawing board' again. I would have thought that hitting rocket debris with missile defence weapons (using either the SM-3 or PAC-3 system) will just create more debris. I can’t help feeling that the defence drum beat that you hear coming from the Japanese government carries a domestic political objective as well as a defence one. On NHK it’s been the lead item on the news each day for about the last week, and the public has been fed with stirring film of the deployments of both the Aegis destroyers and the PAC-3 systems (all grist to the government’s mill). What the North Koreans are learning/testing is a) just how much the United States and the rest of the world are prepared to do to assist Japan on this one (practically nothing); and b) just how ineffective Japan’s counter-strategies are – same old, same old – apart from actually testing out its MD system. As Tobias says, this is a high-risk strategy, because using it and having it fail will be politically costly. On the other hand, this wouldn’t be the first time that either the US or the joint Japan-US MD system has failed. But as a missile expert said recently (I think on EAF), the NK missile/rocket launch is ideal for actually testing out Japan’s missile defence (in which it has invested such vast sums). Let’s hope it’s not ‘back to the drawing board’ again.

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