Author: James J Fox, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, ANU

Although polls for Indonesia’s parliamentary elections only closed late last night, quick count results indicate that Indonesia’s three large parties – President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party, Megawati Sukarnoputri’s PDI-Perjuangan Party and Jusuf Kalla’s Golkar Party – have done better than expected. Together they may have garnered over 60 per cent, and possibly even 70 per cent, of the national vote. Earlier predictions were for only around 50 per cent of the vote.

This would leave a much smaller portion of the vote to be divided among a plethora of 35 other parties, most of whom will not obtain the 2.5 per cent minimum necessary to gain parliamentary election. Only seven or eight other parties are likely to obtain sufficient support and none are likely to poll over 8 per cent.

This will be a particular disappointment for the Islamic PKS party, whose spectacular rise in the previous 2004 election, led to the prediction of major gains in 2009.  Several other Islamic-oriented Parties, PKB, PAN and PPP seem not to have done as well as PKS.  Similarly the two new parties led by former generals, the Wiranto-led Hanura Party and the Prabowo Subianto-led Gerindra Party, will not achieve the success they had hoped for.

These results will lead to an interesting period of horse-trading as the party winners jockey for positions to choose combination tickets for the first-round of Presidential elections. Of the three large parties, SBY’s Democrat Party has emerged as the clear winner and will hold a strong position in the future politics of Indonesia.

SBY will have considerable scope in selecting his running-mate.  He could possibly continue with his current Vice-President, Jusuf Kalla, but inter-party rivalry may make this difficult.  On the other hand, even a nominal Democrat-Golkar alliance would constitute a decisive block in Parliament.

SBY could also choose Hidayat Nur Wahid, a charismatic figure from the Prosperous Justice Party. Although PKS is likely to have the largest vote among Islamic parties, it has not done as well as had been expected and may not offer sufficient benefit for the future. Or SBY could choose, with reasonable confidence, someone who is as yet unidentified but could be groomed to lead the Democrat Party forward at the next election.