After this ‘victory’ the red-shirted protestors immediately moved back to Bangkok where they embarked on another day and night of scarcely believable provocation. Armoured Personnel Carriers and other vehicles were commandeered, along with weapons from the security forces. The Interior Ministry was targeted. One of the red shirt leaders has called for direct attacks on the Prime Minister and his deputy. Events are rapidly spiralling out of control. A state of emergency has been declared for Bangkok and five surrounding provinces. There are reports of bloody pitched battles between protestors and the Army at one strategic intersection. The big news of Songkran 2009 is that Thailand has, once again, descended into an unpredictable and divisive street fight.

As a protest tactic, the storming of the East Asia Summit venue ranks alongside last year’s week-long siege at Suvarnabhumi Airport for its audacity. On that occasion it was the yellow-shirted protestors aligned to Prime Minister Abhisit’s royalist, establishment forces that prevailed. They are now on the back foot and Thaksin’s red-shirts are causing chaos across the capital. They are channelling years of frustration with the September 2006 coup and its backers against a Prime Minister they perceive as illegitimate and weak. Thaksin has seized the moment and is making flamboyant and increasingly confrontational ‘phone-ins’ from abroad, goading the inexperienced government into over-reacting.

Thaksin seeks revenge against those who toppled him in September 2006. He is apparently prepared to provoke a violent confrontation on the streets of Bangkok to achieve his aims. Many of his red-shirted supporters have seen the street-fighting success of the yellow-shirts and now want to try a similarly opportunistic play.

Will they succeed in bringing down the Abhisit government?

To begin answering that question we should not forget that during Songkran 2009 another colour-coded team is just coming into view. The green-shirted soldiers under the command of Army chief General Anupong Paochinda have yet to show their full intentions. After the security debacle at the East Asia Summit, Thailand looks pitiful and we must ask why its police were so under-prepared. Moreover, an already stumbling economy is about to take another huge hit as tourist numbers plummet, again. It is hard to see how the Army can tolerate Thaksin and his red-shirted brigades holding the country to ransom like this. The Army has announced its intention to clear the protestors, with force if necessary. Shots have already been fired. Dozens of injured red-shirt protestors have been ferried to hospital.

With this violence, Songkran events in Bangkok have been cancelled. And in other parts of the country it is inevitable that the joyousness usually associated with the holiday is now overshadowed by the bloodshed. Exactly how the Abhisit government plans to re-take control is unclear. It may be days before the situation is any calmer. And, particularly if more protestors are hurt, an even wider ranging revolt has become a distinct possibility. The government is facing emboldened red-shirts who sense that Abhisit is more impotent than they had anticipated.

During Songkran 2009 the political fault line running through Thai society has become a yawning chasm. This year it is not just the tragic annual holiday road toll that should worry us. In this Songkran crisis the potential for a catastrophic showdown between the Army and the red-shirts looms ominously over the traditional start of Thailand’s New Year.

Nicholas Farrelly works in the ANU’s Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies. He is the co-founder of New Mandala, a blog on mainland Southeast Asian affairs.