Author: Yoichi Funabashi

Amid the global economic crisis, Prime Minister Taro Aso is engaging in top diplomacy at full throttle.

After flying to London to attend the Group of 20 summit, Aso traveled to Pattaya, Thailand, for the abbreviated East Asia Summit.

He hosted an international conference in Tokyo of nations providing assistance to Pakistan.

And today, Aso flies to China, and then Europe, before he welcomes Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin after the Golden Week holidays in May.

However, regardless of how high and far Aso flies, the concept and message of Japanese diplomacy is not being conveyed forcefully because the instability of the domestic economy and political sector has left that diplomacy in a feeble state.

Six months after the financial crisis was triggered in the United States, a vague realization is emerging that economic growth in Asia, especially in China and India, will be the key to revitalizing the global economy once the crisis is over.

Pushing Asia on the road toward full economic growth will also help Japan reinvigorate its own economy.

For that reason, a new Asian diplomacy will be needed that incorporates Asia into Japan’s strategy for resuscitation.

Of utmost importance will be cooperation between Japan and China.

On a recent visit to Japan, Li Changchun, a standing committee member of the Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party, often brought up the idea of a ‘Japan-Chinese partnership’ during talks with Japanese officials.

‘Both China and Japan are different from the United States and Europe,’ he said. ‘Both nations have strong manufacturing bases. Their financial systems are firm. Savings rates are high. They are the first and second nations in terms of foreign currency reserves, and the second and third largest economic superpowers. China and Japan should work cohesively to advance the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century.’

Japanese government officials, however, are more cautious about such an idea.

A high-ranking Finance Ministry official questioned the ‘Japan-China partnership idea’ proposed by China, wondering, ‘Is it a different guise for a China leadership theory in which Japan will be called on to discuss with China before undertaking assistance programs toward Asia?’

A high-ranking Foreign Ministry official also cast doubt on the partnership idea, saying, ‘China’s true aim is probably to establish a bipolar Sino-American structure in the Asia-Pacific region.’

On the other hand, moves are already under way toward a partnership between the United States and China.

During a meeting in London with Chinese President Hu Jintao, U.S. President Barack Obama said, ‘The United States-China relationship is the most important bilateral trading relationship in the world.’

Chan Heng Chee, Singapore’s ambassador to the United States, said, ‘The Obama administration is the first American administration that has recognized China as a peer partner.’

She added, ‘While the United States will not likely institutionalize the arrangement, it is a virtual move toward a Group of 2, made up of the United States and China.’

The current economic crisis will likely accelerate the weakening of the United States and the emergence of China. The world is now in a transitory stage that shows the first stirrings toward a new order.

Efforts will likely be made to establish various partnerships in a number of different forums, from the G-20, to talks between the United States and China, discussions among Japan, the United States and China as well as talks among nations of the Asia-Pacific region.

The Japan-U.S. alliance remains Japan’s largest diplomatic asset. The alliance has provided for stability in Asia.

However, Japan must now show that by itself the nation is also a force for stability in Asia and the world.

That can only be done by recovering economic vitality and by creating deeper ties between the Japanese economy and the economies of Asia.

Japan must also undertake a stronger Asian diplomacy.

In seeking to establish strategic, mutually beneficial relations with China, Japan must make wholehearted efforts in the economic sphere, including in finance and foreign exchange policy, environmental and energy measures and trade and investment.

While Aso’s proposal of doubling the Asian economy by providing assistance to expand domestic demand in all of Asia is a novel idea, it cannot be accomplished without a partnership between Japan and China.

In his meetings with Chinese leaders, Aso should seek to establish a path toward Japan-China cooperation on Asia.

Any discussion of a force for stability should include a far-reaching concept that includes the creation of international public assets needed for a new order in the world and Asia.

In this aspect, the environment could very likely become Japan’s largest diplomatic card.

Japan will also have to play a major role in resolving the other major global crisis that is now unfolding in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

There are signs of a ‘Talibanization’ of Pakistan, following in the footsteps of Afghanistan.

There is the danger of both nations becoming failed states. That would increase the fear of a proliferation of terrorist activity and nuclear weapons.

This issue cannot be resolved through military might alone. There is an urgent need for infrastructure construction and a recovery of law and order. There is also a need to train technocrats and police officers.

This is an excellent opportunity for the government to exercise the strengths of its official development assistance program.

In that endeavor, it will be important to clarify the objectives and effects of the assistance provided. In this arena as well, cooperation will be needed between Japan and the United States, between Japan and China as well as with nations neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The two global crises underline the importance of and urgent need for arms reduction, which should be pursued in a time of economic recession.

Based on the argument that it is the only superpower without an aircraft carrier, Beijing is moving toward the construction of such a vessel. That makes unclear the future course of China’s naval strategy.

Japan must undertake a disarmament diplomacy to ensure that this region does not become a stage for an arms race in the 21st century.

We were heartened when Obama unveiled a new nuclear arms reduction proposal when he said in a speech in Prague, ‘We will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy.’

Now is the time to seek out new possibilities in nuclear arms reduction and nonproliferation efforts that go beyond removing the threat of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles.

While the areas of the environment, economic development and disarmament were diplomatic resources that Japan fostered after World War II, those areas were pushed to the side during the time of then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and then U.S. President George W. Bush.

With the world now facing two crises, there are growing expectations for Japan’s role in these areas. Those areas will also help in strengthening Japan’s ties with the United States, China and the rest of Asia.

However, Japan did not have adequate opportunities to actively engage in those areas.

At the Davos forum in January, Victor Chu, chairman of the First Eastern Investment Group, hosted a breakfast meeting where one participant said: ‘China is not yet fully prepared to create stability and order in the world and the Asian region. While Japan is prepared, there is no telling what direction it is headed because of domestic political confusion. Under such circumstances, the Asian century will not arrive.’

The government has been passive about establishing medium-term objectives for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. This lack of political leadership will not create any momentum for green diplomacy.

Tokyo also failed to serve as the next host for the G-20 meeting.

Bureaucrats of the foreign and finance ministries urged Aso to propose holding the next G-20 summit in Tokyo. However, Aso decided not to bring up the proposal at the London meeting.

He twice said the same thing: ‘It will be very favorable if the next meeting was held in the United States. We will host the meeting if it is to be held in Asia.’

That is nothing more than another example of a feeble diplomacy. (IHT/Asahi: April 29,2009)