Nationally, SBY gets about 60 per cent of the votes, followed by Megawati with about 27 per cent, and Jusuf Kalla reaping the remaining 13 per cent. To win, there is also the requirement to have more than 20 per cent of the votes in 50 per cent of the 33 provinces (or 17 provinces). In all but one province (South Sulawesi, Jusuf Kalla’s stronghold), SBY has gained more than 40 per cent of the popular votes, and the simple average of the votes for him in those 32 provinces is about 59.4 per cent. His support in Aceh is as high as 94 per cent. This is a strong mandate for SBY to run the country for a second (and last) term. His campaign slogan — Lanjutkan! (Continue!) — appears to have worked. Is it because the people acknowledge his achievements? Or is it essentially his personality? Or are other factors at play: political machinery, skillful campaigns? It may well be a combination of all those.

A close observation of SBY’s style of running the country over the past 56 months suggests that he must have had the determination from the start to run the country for the maximum 10 years allowed by the Constitution. Hence his cautious stance on most issues that borders on timidity as he wants to please everyone and avoid “rocking the boat” unlike his predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid who destroyed himself in the process. SBY was accused of engaging himself mostly in a strategy of tebar pesona, namely of spreading enchantment. But his ‘politik santun’ (well mannered politics) has been praised. He has kept his good, and correct, appearance in public. These all have paid off well for him.

It is what will come next that is more important now for SBY and for the country. He should realize that he has won his re-election on his own and does not owe any political party in his formal (and nominal) coalition anything. Of course he should be thankful to several of his ministers, in particular the technocrats, who have served him well. He should also acknowledge that his Vice President, Jusuf Kalla, did a lot for him. The lesson for him is that he can count on the professionals to help him run the country but that they will have to be given full political backing. To some extent that was what Jusuf Kalla did when his was not forthcoming. Now SBY himself has to step forward to provide that political backing.

At an informal breakfast of six, including the author, the day after the G20 Summit in Washington, D.C. in November 2008, the President clearly said that if re-elected he would be more decisive. He spoke about why he had taken a cautious posture as he thought that he needed to avoid a confrontation with the parliament as it could end in a situation as experienced before by Abdurrahman Wahid. With the mandate he receives now he can exert stronger leadership. He could appeal to the people that have elected him directly in case the parliament blocks him. Some thought he should have done that before given that he also got over 60 percent support in the 2004 election. But it is important that he continuously communicates with and educate the people on key policy issues, not only during political campaigning. In addition, in his second term he could be less risk averse as he has much less to loose, except for a good legacy that will indeed be lost if he cannot demonstrate leadership.

Despite the strong mandate, SBY must uphold good governance and strengthen the democratic process. Indonesia’s democratic process has come a long way. The 2009 legislative and presidential elections attest to this. It was unfortunate that the Election Commission is so incompetent, but fortunately this could be overcome at the eleventh hour with the decision by the Constitutional Court to allow voters to use their ID in the presidential election if they encountered problems with the registration. This critical decision was greatly facilitated by the attitude of SBY’s competitors, Jusuf Kalla in particular. In fact, by having the confidence to participate in the presidential competition, Megawati and Jusuf Kalla had saved the democratic process. From the beginning of the year polls have indicated that SBY is likely going to win with a very large margin. But both Megawati and Jusuf Kalla believed in the system and were willing to give it a try. They were also serious in participating in the three rounds of debate amongst the presidential candidates. These all bode well for Indonesia’s democratic consolidation.

A lot of resources were spent for the campaigns by all three candidates. It may be wasteful but is cannot be done without. It is an interesting subject for in-depth studies whether the campaigns have made and can make a big difference. Casual observation suggests that this has not been the case. There was nothing new the public can learn from the campaigns, but the fun of it should be seen as an integral part of the process. People’s opinion, it seems, is gradually formed over a longer time period. Therefore, the incumbent has an advantage, but it depends on whether that advantage can be capitalized on. SBY had done well on this score. An important task for him now is to create an enabling environment to grooming a new generation of political leaders that will take over the leadership from him in 2014.