Comments on: Who’s afraid of the conservatives in Japan? http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2009/07/15/whos-afraid-of-the-conservatives-in-japan/ Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific Fri, 19 Mar 2010 22:12:37 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Lincoln Fung http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2009/07/15/whos-afraid-of-the-conservatives-in-japan/comment-page-1/#comment-42084 Lincoln Fung Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:35:25 +0000 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/?p=5708#comment-42084 While North Korea's nuclear program poses a threat to every country in the East Asia region, why does it improve Japan's security by having US nuclear weapons in Japan, given that Japan has been under the US nuclear umbrella? It should be noted that the 1960 secret agreement was made during the cold war era, obviously. It reminds people of the Cuba missiles crisis in 1962, not too long after 1960. If it were not a secret agreement, the Cuba missiles crisis may have had been different. How did the US take the missiles in Cuba then? Why didn't it allow them to stay there? What are the implications of having US nuclear weapons in Japan for other countries in the region? How China and Russia will react, given that the way the US reacted to the Cuba missiles? Will it be a stabilising or destabilising to the regional security? While it is important to prevent nuclear proliferation, to have US nuclear weapons in Japan would hardly contribute to that cause. It would be a much more serious regional security issue than just that of a reaction to the North Korea’s nuclear program and would have much wider implications. If that happens, it would have the potential to shift the focus away from North Korea to a whole new issue. While North Korea’s nuclear program poses a threat to every country in the East Asia region, why does it improve Japan’s security by having US nuclear weapons in Japan, given that Japan has been under the US nuclear umbrella?

It should be noted that the 1960 secret agreement was made during the cold war era, obviously. It reminds people of the Cuba missiles crisis in 1962, not too long after 1960. If it were not a secret agreement, the Cuba missiles crisis may have had been different.

How did the US take the missiles in Cuba then? Why didn’t it allow them to stay there? What are the implications of having US nuclear weapons in Japan for other countries in the region? How China and Russia will react, given that the way the US reacted to the Cuba missiles? Will it be a stabilising or destabilising to the regional security?

While it is important to prevent nuclear proliferation, to have US nuclear weapons in Japan would hardly contribute to that cause.

It would be a much more serious regional security issue than just that of a reaction to the North Korea’s nuclear program and would have much wider implications. If that happens, it would have the potential to shift the focus away from North Korea to a whole new issue.

]]> By: Aurelia George Mulgan http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2009/07/15/whos-afraid-of-the-conservatives-in-japan/comment-page-1/#comment-41729 Aurelia George Mulgan Wed, 15 Jul 2009 06:34:29 +0000 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/?p=5708#comment-41729 I agree with Tobias that there's a tendency to overestimate the strength of the right-wing nationalists in Japan. They don't represent the mainstream of the Japanese public (as Abe found out to his cost), although they are closer to the mainstream of the LDP, whose death Tobias may have prematurely forecast. The right-wingers constantly pop up with this or that pronouncement or treatise. They make sure that they are in the forefront of the media on a regular basis. In other words, they are good at keeping the cause alive, with periodic help from the North Koreans and sometimes China. I wonder how Tobias read the results of the Tokyo election last Sunday? It seemed to me that the DPJ was good, but not good enough (10 seats short of a majority). Could this be repeated in the general election? Good, but not good enough? Hatoyama is still a bit shaky on 'dead persons' donations'. We should not forget either that he has strongly supported constitutional revision in the past - although I would agree with Tobias' assessment that a DPJ government is going to have its hands full without opening this particular Pandora's box. Whatever level of defence spending is finally agreed under a possible DPJ government (which will be spraying money over the entire electorate), you can be sure that the campaign to obtain the F-22s from the United States will not go away. From a Japanese perspective, it is vital that that maintain military superiority over China in key areas of their defence. I agree with Tobias that there’s a tendency to overestimate the strength of the right-wing nationalists in Japan. They don’t represent the mainstream of the Japanese public (as Abe found out to his cost), although they are closer to the mainstream of the LDP, whose death Tobias may have prematurely forecast. The right-wingers constantly pop up with this or that pronouncement or treatise. They make sure that they are in the forefront of the media on a regular basis. In other words, they are good at keeping the cause alive, with periodic help from the North Koreans and sometimes China.

I wonder how Tobias read the results of the Tokyo election last Sunday? It seemed to me that the DPJ was good, but not good enough (10 seats short of a majority). Could this be repeated in the general election? Good, but not good enough? Hatoyama is still a bit shaky on ‘dead persons’ donations’. We should not forget either that he has strongly supported constitutional revision in the past – although I would agree with Tobias’ assessment that a DPJ government is going to have its hands full without opening this particular Pandora’s box. Whatever level of defence spending is finally agreed under a possible DPJ government (which will be spraying money over the entire electorate), you can be sure that the campaign to obtain the F-22s from the United States will not go away. From a Japanese perspective, it is vital that that maintain military superiority over China in key areas of their defence.

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