Whatever the policy implications of the DPJ’s shift, it makes good political sense for the DPJ to stress continuity in foreign policy. The LDP, naturally, will try to use foreign policy as a way to discredit the DPJ, to paint it as dangerously radical and untrustworthy. (Aso Taro took precisely this line of attack on foreign policy yesterday.) The less daylight between the parties on foreign policy, the less traction the LDP gets from talking about it. The public cares about issues that are at the center of the DPJ’s policy program, health, welfare, and social security. The LDP has performed notoriously poorly in the past four years on these issues. Shifting to the center on foreign policy means it becomes a non-issue. Which is just as well for the DPJ, because it is highly unlikely that the party will do more than what’s promised in the manifesto should it take power next month.
Preserving the status quo on foreign policy, however, should free the party to devote its energy to critical matters like administrative reform. In other words, the shift to the status quo not only disarms the LDP during the campaign, but should the DPJ the LDP will have little choice but to attack from the right if it wants to make an issue of foreign policy, which will do little to draw support away from a DPJ government.
The LDP might be disarmed on foreign policy issues (the DPJ not wanting to frighten the frighten the horses), but that still leaves plenty of options, particularly on the issue of how the DPJ is going to fund its very generous hand-outs to a whole range of recipients. What is more, the LDP is now ‘covering’ the DPJ in this area with its main policy pledge to increase the average disposable household income by more than ¥1 million by 2020 (so far off, this seems a rather ‘fictional’ promise I grant you). Nevertheless, it’s the big headlines that count in policy manifestoes, and the particular areas selected for ‘boosting’ are very similar to those in the DPJ manifesto – i.e. child education, those with young families, the elderly, plus various other economic stimulus measures. We can only wait and see how the LDP is proposing to fund such proposals – perhaps this will make them vulnerable to the same counterattack from the DPJ – ‘where’s the money coming from’?