Japanese election – Weekly editorial
August 24th, 2009Author: Peter Drysdale
Unless the pundits are all wrong, next weekend will see the DPJ in Japan win an historic election victory. Except for a brief period under the Hosokawa Cabinet in 1993, and the short lived Socialist Katayama government in the 1940s, the Liberal Democratic Party has effectively held government for over six decades. Yoichi Funabashi’s lead this week asks what this might mean for Japan’s democracy, and whether Japan will at last be transformed into a mature two-party democracy. Readers of this site have benefited from Tobias Harris’s analysis of developments in the lead-up to the election over the last year. However decisive the victory of the DPJ, there is sure to be a period of uncertainty and confusion as the new government takes rein. For one thing, the DPJ plans a big shake up of the relationship between politics and the bureaucracy. This will take some time to sort itself out. There are also contradictions in DPJ policy strategies, and there will be a jostling for power and influence as the new government takes over. But the overwhelming feeling within the Japanese electorate, including the normally pro-LDP farmers and business community, is that this is time for a change. There is a widespread willingness to take a risk on new political leadership. Funabashi reminds us that this may or may not mean a fundamental change in the character of Japanese politics. He cites the prescience of my old friend, Masamichi Inoki, who questioned whether an effective two-party political system was in the making in 1955. Whether times have changed, we shall have to wait and see. Whatever the case, a change of government in Japan is likely to boost confidence, and, despite Funabashi’s justifiable worries about its impact on Japan’s longer term growth prospects, give a boost to the Japanese economy in the short term. And if it does what Funabashi hopes for, and strengthens the base of robust political argument in Japan, that will be a real bonus for Japan’s performance in the long term.
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Dr Funabashi outlines a number of potential difficulties and questions in the wake of a widely-anticipated Election win by the DPJ in the 30 August 2009 Poll. Essentially, he argues that Japan does not need two conservatively-oriented major political parties vying for the support of the same power base. The LDP, in desperation, has copied or modified a number of DPJ policies, hoping that voters (who want such policies) will turn to it, rather than the DPJ. Such political plagiarism will not benefit the LDP greatly as voters know that the DPJ is the true author of such popular measures and will vote accordingly. It must be remembered, though, that Japan is, at heart, a conservative polity that does not welcome sweeping or disruptive change. Understanding this factor, the DPJ is offering incremental change at an assimilable pace, thus not frightening voters who are totally disillusioned with the LDP. The DPJ may, therefore, win up to 320 seats.