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Japan and forging global solidarity at Copenhagen

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In Brief

On Monday 7 September, 2009 at the Asahi World Environment Forum, the new Japanese Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, announced that the government would reduce Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions by 25 per cent from 1990 levels, by the year 2020 – this is equivalent to one-third from current levels in just 11 years.

The pledge is in contrast to his predecessor, former PM Taro Aso, who proposed a target of only an 8 per cent reduction from 1990 levels. Mr. Aso argued that while this target may seem low, it will be achieved through purely domestic emissions reductions (and not from carbon credit offsets, or simply buying carbon credits from reductions made overseas), and is based on what is technologically and politically feasible in the given time frame.

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The new target of Mr. Hatoyama is in-line with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts, which estimates a reduction of emission between 25-40 per cent of 1990 levels between 2012 and 2020 by developed nations combined would reduce the risk of Earth’s average temperature rising more than 2 degrees this century.

Japan’s target is also slightly higher than that of the EU’s ‘20/20/20’ target. That is a 20 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, compared with 1990 levels, a 20 per cent increase in use of renewable energy by 2020 and a 20 per cent cut in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency by 2020. However, the EU also agreed to raise the target to 30 per cent if an international commitment was reached by other developed countries and more advanced developing nations to reduce emissions by a comparable amount.

Responses have been mixed. In general, international commentators have been positive. Danish Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard and Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have both praised the target. NGO groups like the WWF Global Climate Initiative and Greenpeace International also applauded the new target. But, positive sentiments have generally been tempered with caution, especially since no details have been provided on how the new target would be reached. Commentators have warned that while the announcement was a good first and symbolic step, Japan needs to show how it can realise this. Most believe that Japan will not be able to achieve the target through domestic reductions alone.

At an Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S) and University of Tokyo symposium on ‘Pathway to Low Carbon Society after Kyoto Protocol’ (28 October, 2009), Mr. Gijs Berends, the First Secretary of the Delegation of the European Commission to Japan, echoed this sentiment saying that the target would require a mix of both domestic emissions reductions and offsets through purchases of carbon credits from other countries. Japan has already made steps to purchase carbon credits from developing countries. More recently, it has signed deals with Latvia to buy the rights to emit 1.5 million tons of CO2 (October, 2009) and 20 million carbon credits from the Czech Republic (September, 2009).

In a critical opinion piece Professor Roger A. Pielke, Jr. argued that ‘Setting unattainable emissions targets is not a policy — it’s an act of wishful thinking.’ Japan is the fifth-largest emitter of total global greenhouse gases in the world, but is also one of the most energy-efficient. Pileke argues that ‘meeting these goals will be enormously difficult, especially because Japan has for decades been at the forefront of improving energy efficiency and has already plucked much low hanging fruit. Consequently, if Japan’s proposals are to be criticized, perhaps it should be because they are too ambitious rather than too weak.’

So, how will the goal be achieved? Details are still unclear. The new government has not explained which sectors will have to make the emissions reductions. It announced it would promote green industries, establish a domestic carbon trading market, introduce a global warming measure tax, increase renewable energy by 10 per cent by 2020 through the introduction of a fixed-price feed-in tariff policy, and subsidise photovoltaics for households, environmentally-friendly automobiles, and energy-efficient household appliances.

Professor Tetsuo Yuhara, presented what he considered were the required steps to reaching this target at the recent IR3S and University of Tokyo symposium. Reaching the target would require sectoral reductions as follows: industry: 29 per cent, transport: 34 per cent, commercial: 41 per cent, residential: around 50 per cent, energy conversion: 41 per cent.

Solar power generation must increase by 55 per cent from current levels requiring photovoltaic cells to be installed in all new houses and some existing houses (600,000 annually). 15 new nuclear power plants must be built and operated with 90 per cent capacity utilisation rate, far above the current rate of 60 per cent. Increased thermal power from both gas power plants and bio-mass mixed combustion would be needed. 90 per cent of sales of new vehicles must be of next generation vehicles. All new houses and existing houses must have heat insulation installed, and mandatory energy conservation standards must be implemented. The price of one ton of CO2 would be 82,000 yen under the new target, compared to 15,000 yen for the previous target of an 8 per cent reduction, or the current price of around 7000 yen.

Not surprisingly, there has been domestic criticism of the new target, largely by business groups who argue that stringent regulations may encourage more businesses to shift overseas.

Overall, the pledge by the new government shows decisiveness and willingness to take a leadership role in creating the global solidarity needed to come to an agreement in Copenhagen to move towards what science says must be done. As expressed by the Danish Climate and Energy Minister, the big step taken by Japan with its ambitious targets will very likely influence other countries to follow. If the developed countries can come up with commitments in the range of 20-30 per cent emission reductions, it would be easy for emerging major economies such as China and India to come up with commitments that could lead to a comprehensive global agreement on emission reduction. This last window of opportunity to arrive at an all-inclusive global agreement on emission reduction to follow the Kyoto Protocol must be seized by all means.

Agreement on mitigation is not the only concern at Copenhagen. It is equally important to address support for adaptation. Developing countries, who made the least contributions to increased green house gas concentrations in the atmosphere, are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Agriculture and water are two critical sectors that could be adversely affected by climate change and are the major concerns of many of the developing countries. Our modelling studies show that although the countries in the tropics will initially benefit from CO2 fertilization, increasing temperatures would cause yield reductions of 10 per cent or more. Changing rainfall, both in timing and in intensities, would exacerbate these conditions. While there is a great deal of discussion on funding adaptation, there is very little focus on how to develop and implement adaptation strategies in a sustainable manner. Climate is very much conditioned on the geographical, bio-physical and socio-economic characteristics of a particular location. Hence, adaptation strategies must evolve locally incorporating the diverse and complex interactions of all affected stakeholders as well as the local ecology and environmental processes. For adaptation strategies to evolve locally, local human resources and technical capacities should be developed, particularly in the most vulnerable regions of the world.

This can be achieved through postgraduate education, where the necessary research can be conducted in partnership with implementing agencies and local communities. We need to discuss ‘adaptation’ in terms of ‘development with climate resilience’ and support for this is needed not only in terms of financing, but also through comprehensive capacity development programs, so that the necessary technology and knowledge is transferred in a sustainable manner to enable affected countries to plan and implement adaptation programs that suits their development plans best. United Nations University has already embarked on this process through the creation of a University Network for Climate and Ecosystems Change where leading universities in Asia as well as Africa can share resources and knowledge in creating educational and research programs to meet these challenges effectively.

The whole world has come together as never before to tackle the climate change challenge. It provides us with a golden opportunity to design development strategies not only for reducing adverse climate change impacts, but to go beyond adaptation, towards a truly sustainable global future.

Kazuhiko Takeuchi is Vice Rector and Director of the Institute for Sustainability and Peace at the United Nations University.

One response to “Japan and forging global solidarity at Copenhagen”

  1. What is Japan’s target of emissions reductions under teh Kyoto protocol?
    If the statement that the Japanese “government would reduce Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions by 25 per cent from 1990 levels, by the year 2020 – this is equivalent to one-third from current levels in just 11 years” is true, then it implies that Japan’s current level of emissions is about 8 per cent above its 1990 level.
    What does that mean?
    It means Japan is not achieving its Kyoto reduction target.

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