Authors: Peter Drysdale and Shiro Armstrong, ANU

Yang Yao, Deputy Dean of the National School of Development and the Director of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, argues in the upcoming issue of Foreign Affairs that a radical shift in gear on China’s political reform is now necessary to maintaining growth with social harmony.

‘Beijing’s ongoing efforts to promote GDP growth’, he argues, ‘will inevitably result in infringements on people’s economic and political rights. For example, arbitrary land acquisitions are still prevalent in some cities, the government closely monitors the Internet, labour unions are suppressed, and workers have to endure long hours and unsafe conditions. Chinese citizens will not remain silent in the face of these infringements, and their discontent will inevitably lead to periodic resistance. Before long, some form of explicit political transition that allows ordinary citizens to take part in the political process will be necessary.’

The reforms carried out over the last 30 years have mostly been in response to  crises. ’Popular resistance and economic imbalances are now moving China toward another major crisis. Strong and privileged interest groups and commercialized local governments are blocking the equal distribution of the benefits of economic growth throughout society, thereby rendering futile the CCP’s strategy of trading economic growth for people’s consent to its absolute rule.

‘An open and inclusive political process has generally checked the power of interest groups in advanced democracies such as the United States. Indeed, this is precisely the mandate of a disinterested government — to balance the demands of different social groups. A more open Chinese government could still remain disinterested if the right democratic institutions were put in place to keep the most powerful groups at bay. But ultimately, there is no alternative to greater democratization if the CCP wishes to encourage economic growth and maintain social stability.’

This is an argument that has been gathering strength in influential circles over the last few years, and Yao Yang’s piece in Foreign Affairs brings it right out of the closet.

Peter Drysdale and Shiro Armstrong are the editors of the East Asia Forum.

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