16th ASEAN summit – Families are messy but important

Author: Ernest Z Bower, CSIS

ASEAN is like a big family and it has issues.  When you set a table for eleven, in this case the ten leaders of the ASEAN countries Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam plus the ASEAN Secretary General, you are bound to have some drama.  That was certainly the case in the most recent ASEAN summit held in Hanoi.

The key message from the summit in Hanoi is that no one can forget that ASEAN is made up of 10 countries and each one of them has its own problems.  But the group is vitally important to its members and to international partners.

Although Vietnam, one of the most forthright advocates for a strong ASEAN, did a remarkable job in organising the summit in terms of logistics, the gathering was characteristically messy.  Thailand’s Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva didn’t show up – he has thousands or protesters in the streets of Bangkok urging him to dissolve his government and seek a new electoral mandate; the Philippines lame-duck President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo almost went home early but then changed her mind and decided to stay; Burma’s Thein Sein was the primary object of the ‘family’s’ attention, receiving very strong encouragement to create real political space in upcoming elections.  These examples are the tip of the proverbial iceberg.  Cambodia’s leader Hun Sen has publicly criticised the Thai Secretary General for not being able to represent the collective membership – no surprise given Thai-Cambodian tensions.  The dynamic is, well, dynamic.

So the question is whether this family delivers any real value to its collective members and to the global community.  The answer is overwhelmingly yes.  Many analysts criticise ASEAN on its effectiveness. Indeed Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong pilloried the organisation for not acting decisively enough, but the truth is ASEAN is a family that means something to its members and to the world’s major powers.

While Burma and Thai protests predictably stole headlines in Hanoi, ASEAN quietly is making real progress on integrating its ten countries, 592 million denizens and US$1.5 trillion economy.   The blueprint for integration is the ASEAN Charter which lays out goals for economic, socio-cultural and security/political integration by 2015.  The ASEAN Summit quietly marked some real progress toward these goals and a superficial understanding of those trends is inimical to good policy in regard to Southeast Asia.

On the economic and financial front, ASEAN has effectively established its ASEAN Free Trade Area.  Over 95 percent of goods move between ASEAN countries without tariffs.  Intra ASEAN trade as moved from secondary to become the largest market for the regions members in the last decade.  Finance ministers of ASEAN and the +3 nations – China, Japan and Korea have initiated the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilaterialisation (CMIM) which creates a useful $120 billion currency swap and crisis management facility for regional economies.  Customs harmonisation and financial services liberalisation are also making serious gains.

The ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) will take place in May in Vietnam.  What had been a quiet meeting of military chiefs of staff has now been elevated to the ministerial level.  The ADMM will consider whether to invite ‘+ X’ countries to join their discussions regarding regional security – the US and big East Asian nations to the north are clearly interested in being invited, as are Australia and New Zealand.

An ASEAN dispute resolution mechanism and human rights body have also been established and while these are nascent institutions, they are significant early steps in the right direction.

The US would be unwise to join cynical voices criticising their effectiveness.  The harder but effective policy course is to get engaged and invest in strengthening these institutions, participate at senior levels in ASEAN integration efforts and follow through on significant American national interests in Southeast Asia.  The American stake in the region is notoriously under reported.  These include investment three times as large as in China, to a pair of treaty allies (Philippines and Thailand), to some of the world’s most important shipping lanes and naval rights of way, to key partners in counter-terror efforts ,  to vital links to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief and mitigating the impacts of climate change.

ASEAN is a family – and a messy one but it is vitally important to its members and its neighbors.  It is a likely to play a central role in any Asian regional architecture from trade and economic to security and defence.   Having a strong foundation in ASEAN is key to long term management of relations with major global partners; China and India.  ASEAN’s path won’t be linear.  It will be colored by headline-grabbing drama that will test even the most well-grounded strategy, but the US has keen interests in close relations with ASEAN.  America is a friend of this family and helping it be strong is an investment in our national interest.

Ernest Z Bower is a senior adviser and director of the South East Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C.

This article was first published here by CSIS.

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