First, you have argued that because there was no significant violent episode following the 2004 elections, that post-election violence is not a possibility in the Philippines.

In my view there is a body of evidence from around the world as well as in the Philippines to suggest the potential for violence is a real risk when an electoral outcome is uncertain, or where citizens feel they have been politically disenfranchised. Indeed following the 1986 elections, the potential for violence in the Philippines was extreme. Tanks and marines dispatched to Camp Crame were blocked by masses of courageous but unarmed civilians in what is now known as the “miracle at EDSA”. The real miracle was that it did not turn into a massacre.

But that the Philippines has so far managed to avoid a violent post-election episode is not evidence that it will never happen. And a brief exploration of the experience of some of the Philippines Southeast Asian neighbours would provide insight into some of the alternative outcomes (Thailand and Burma both immediately come to mind).

To your specific example of 2004, I believe one of the key reasons we did not see a greater backlash against GMA was that of democratic reform fatigue. A former teacher of mine once made the point that every “EDSA” stalls the Philippine economy and social progress for a good ten years. With the removal of Erap in a similar “people power” movement in 2001, it would be very hard to mobilise the same critical mass of inspired civilians to effect a change in this way (and the potential for violence that comes with it). I spoke to a lot of Filipino college students during 2007 on why there had not been a greater backlash against GMA and the general consensus was that it was better to simply wait her out than risk the fallout of another great upheaval.

Moving now to your second point, allow me to say it has been extremely pleasing to see the latest elections unfold with relatively little election day violence and that it appears the will of the people is being reflected in the ballot to a greater extent than in past elections.

This said, my article does not call for perfection, but only seeks to analyse some of the uncertainties an automated might raise and some of the challenges these uncertaintaines could create for the electoral system. There are two points I would make though in light of your comments.

1. That because a cleaner result appears to have been delivered this year, it does not guarantee all future results will be as clean. Indeed, it would be advantageous for anyone planning to manipulate an automated system to have it first deliver a credible outcome.

2. As the first case of automated voting, politicians are unlikely to be sufficiently familiar with the new process to work around it. I would liken it to a concept from my business that we broadly refer to as the “experience curve”. The concept describes the way a corporation can become increasingly adept and competitive in a market as its product/market experience or familiarity grows. Similarly for politicians looking to manipulate electoral results, new knowledge and networks will need to be acquired before they are as successful as in previous years.

In short, the risk of doubtful electoral outcomes will remain so long as systemic access points still exist within the automated process. Preventing these latent risks from actualising will require the ongoing vigilance of Filipino electors and civil society.

To your last point, that at least some attempt in understanding Philippine political culture should be done before drawing any conclusions as I have:

I think it demonstrates a degree of close-mindedness to presume that because you do not agree with my analysis that I am necessarily uniformed. On the the contrary, I have spent an entire year living and studying in the Philippines and my knowledge of the country and its politics, culture, history and language is somewhat more than that of a passing tourist as you imply.

Noong 2007, nakatira ako sa Maynila bilang mag-aaral. Nakapagaral ako sa University of Asia and the Pacific ng mga kurso tungkol sa pulitika at kultura ng Pilipinas at wikang Filipino. Kapag tumitira ako sa Maynila, nanood ko ang mga peristiwa ng Senadorial Eleksyon na binigyan ko ang kaalaman tungkol sa elektoral na systema, tsaka malasakit sa pulitikang Pilipinas.

It is a topic I’ve been following ever since.

I also argue with your conclusion. There is widespread belief that the automated elections have been successful. The shift to automated elections was a massive shift after all. Perfection should have not been expected. This is the first time in fact, that candidates for the presidency have conceded that they lost where before they would argue that they were cheated.

All those who would like to analyze the Philippines are welcome to visit us. I just hope that before such conclusions are made, at least some attempt in understanding Philippine political culture should be done.