What we know so far is that investigators determined that the ship’s sinking was caused by a ‘non-contact underwater explosion’ most likely from a torpedo. Also, the rumor has it that traces of gun powder in the wreckage of the ship were identified confirming that it was in fact a torpedo. If this turns out to be true, this finding will further back the suspicion that the Cheonan did not sink because of an accident. All in all many point at North Korea as the prime suspect saying ‘no other country would have done it.’ The domestic political atmosphere in South Korea increasingly regards North Korea as the perpetrator of the incident.
While South Korea is still looking for ‘the smoking gun,’ this incident has cast more clouds over Kim Jong Il’s dramatic visit to China, the only major power that North Korea can possibly count on. The picture of the sliced Cheonan is now eclipsed by the long motorcade of the North Korean delegation in downtown Beijing. But no matter how serious and sincere Pyongyang is in terms of its bid for the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, the international community is now waiting for the final result of the ongoing investigation. If it is somehow proven that North Korea is indeed the perpetrator, Pyongyang’s already delinquent international credibility and image as a rogue state will be solidified to the point that it cannot be changed.
With the sinking of the Cheonan, regional politics around the Korean peninsula has become even more complicated. And it will have a profound effect on the Six Party Talks, the only multilateral cooperative platform for resolving North Korea’s nuclear venture. South Korea and the United States have made it clear that the resolution of the Cheonan incident would be linked to prospects for reopening the Six Party Talks. This means that they will investigate the involvement of North Korea and according to the results formulate an appropriate response. Although the United States may want to speed up the Six Party Talks process, it may not be able to take a different policy position from Seoul. Thus, the proliferation issue will face a more uncertain future for the time being.
South Korea’s Lee Myung-bak government will become more committed to its already hard-line policy toward the North. The current South Korean administration cannot sacrifice the integrity of the investigation into the Cheonan incident over what may be perceived as uncertain progress in the Six Party Talks.
We will have to wait to see for longer than expected for any general thaw in the inter-Korean relations. Conclusive investigation results will have serious ramifications as North Korea’s will be perceived as a regime capable of provoking actual attacks on South Korea. The Cheonan incident will present, as it has already, an unexpected dilemma for Beijing. Seoul and Washington will demand Beijing accept the results of the investigation, which will soon point out North Korea as the actual cause, and play its role accordingly. China will have to choose between Seoul, a strategic partner which has become its number one trade partner, and Pyongyang, its delinquent but life-time blood ally. At the end of the day, Beijing’s course of action in this matter will be constrained. And, the prospects for the Six Party Talks are still very uncertain.
The time ahead will present a set of great challenges to the key regional actors for securing peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. The enduring peace in Northeast Asia may perhaps face the critical juncture. While the descending spirals of the post-Cheonan incident may complicate the region, perhaps this is the juncture clearly demanding the key regional actors’ prudence and coolness rather than short-sighted reactive gestures for the domestic political consumption.
Jong Kun Choi is Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science & International Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul.
This article is part of a special feature on the aftermath of the Cheonan sinking.