The United Nations described the damage as ‘exceeding the combined effects of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami, the 2005 Pakistan earthquake and the 2010 Haiti earthquake.’

Punjab province is Pakistan’s breadbasket, but farmers in the region have lost their harvest, livestock and homes. Irrigation canals, bridges, power lines and roads have been severed, rendering them useless.

Although the Swat region in north-western Pakistan is a tourist destination noted for its scenic beauty, it is also the scene of fierce fighting for control between Islamic radicals and the Pakistani military. Local residents tried to avoid the fighting in the past, but because of the flooding they have now had to abandon their homes.

The US military has dispatched helicopters to the region to rescue isolated residents. However, it is permitting local residents to board the helicopters only after it subjects them to two body inspections in a search for weapons and explosives.

Pakistan’s foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, said: ‘If we are unable to respond adequately, there is the possibility of food riots. That would only play into their hands.’ By ‘they’, Qureshi was referring to Islamic radicals who would not hesitate to resort to terrorism.

I recently received an e-mail from Samina Ahmed, South Asia project director for the International Crisis Group, which specialises in conflict prevention. Ahmed said in the e-mail that emergency assistance from the international community should be distributed directly to those affected by the flooding in the form of cash through Islamabad and provincial governments to ‘negate militant propaganda.’

Before the flooding, there was a long dry spell. Mohenjo-daro, known for its ancient ruins, saw the mercury rise to nearly 54 degrees. Farmers in villages across Sindh province held demonstrations to demand more water. Those very same villages have borne the brunt of the heaviest damage from the recent flooding.

It is close to impossible to prove that any single natural phenomenon is directly related to global warming. In the case of floods, various factors such as overdevelopment and deforestation come into play in a complicated manner.

Qureshi described the latest flooding as a ‘perfect storm,’ created through the concurrence of unusually high rainfall in the north, monsoons and the melting of the Himalayan glaciers.

Further global warming will lead to climate irregularities and unusual weather. In South and East Asia, those trends could lead to a faster melting of the Himalayan glaciers that now cover the Tibetan plateau.

Pakistan will be unable to maintain its level of civilisation without the water from the Indus river and its tributaries. But the water from the Indus is used for agriculture, industry and daily living to an extent that leaves it all but dry near Karachi before the river can flow into the Arabian Sea.

In a report, the World Bank warned that ‘over the next 100 years, (Pakistan) could face the dangerous prospect of seeing the water levels of its rivers decrease by 30 to 40 percent.’ Major rivers such as the Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Chang, Yangtze and Amu Darya, all have their origins in the Himalayan glaciers.

Moreover, disputes over water are escalating among nations that lie along those rivers. In particular, India and Pakistan have constantly been in conflict over water.

Anti-Indian sentiment in Pakistan naturally heightened after the recent flooding because India released water from its dams up river because of fears the dams would collapse.

India is also locking horns with China over water rights. Although both nations are seeking to become the superpowers of the 21st century, their weak point is water.

Water is the ‘Achilles’ heel’ of the two nations, according to Steven Solomon, author of Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization.

China is strengthening its offensive in controlling Tibet not only because of sovereignty issues, but apparently also for control of water resources in Asia. Pakistan’s key geopolitical position will determine the future of Afghanistan. It also possesses nuclear weapons. Because of Pakistan’s long regional rivalry with India, there is the constant fear of conflict erupting.

One of the largest risks of climate change may be a possible conflict over the water from the melting of the Himalayan glaciers that feed the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, as well as Pakistan, which will be the fourth in the world in the future.

The Earth is often referred to as the water planet because 70 percent of its surface is covered by water. However, only 3 percent of that water is potable, and two-thirds of that fresh water is trapped within glaciers. Twenty percent of the world’s population do not have sustained access to safe drinking water and 40 percent do not ordinarily utilise appropriate sanitation facilities.

Palestinians and Israelis live next to each other and obtain their drinking water from the Jordan river. However, Palestinians only receive about one-fourth of the water that every Israeli receives.

Humans cannot live without water.

In that sense, everyone is equal. But, there is extreme inequality in the location of water, access to water and the quality and quantity of water that is available on a daily basis. There is also a growing gap between the haves and have-nots in terms of water.

Water is also closely tied to food, energy and climate change. In that sense, water is a key component of national security. If the 20th century witnessed the rise and fall of nations over oil, the 21st century could be one in which the rise and fall of nations is determined by water.

While oil ultimately can be replaced by other resources, the same is not true for water.

In 2004, the United Nations established the Advisory Board on Water and Sanitation. The current chairman is Prince Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands. Its main tasks are to promote reaching Millennium Development Goals for water and sanitation as well as to heighten public interest in water issues.

Because Japan also lies in the monsoon climate region, it is also a high-risk nation in terms of water, vulnerable to drought and flooding. For that very reason, Japan has polished its management skills in the comprehensive use of water resources, through unified control of water levels and water quality, efficient water usage, reuse of sewage-treated water and protection of the ecosystem.

Those skills have been so widely accepted that sabo, a Japanese term originally meant as measures to prevent landslides due to rain, has become widely accepted in English by international experts.

The dispatch of Ground Self-Defence Force helicopters to provide humanitarian assistance to the flooded regions of Pakistan has been welcomed by local communities. Japan should expand diplomatic relief support for major natural disasters abroad.

Once the situation in Pakistan becomes more settled, Japan should move toward cooperation in national security over water through such measures as comprehensive water resources management, early warning systems for natural disasters and construction of water infrastructure.

An effort should be made to seek out a water resources diplomacy that covers not only Pakistan, but neighbouring Afghanistan as well.

On August 31, the government of Prime Minister Naoto Kan held a meeting that brought together such experts as Tetsu Nakamura, who heads the nongovernmental organisation Peshawar-kai, to consider what assistance could be provided to Afghanistan.

At the meeting, Nakamura touched upon the importance of providing support for water usage and said, ‘To provide food assistance requires water. The key points are flood control, irrigation and water for agricultural use. Water is the lifeline of Afghanistan.’

Japan should share with the world its past efforts and the lessons learned in the course of its comprehensive management of water resources.

 

Yoichi Funabashi is editor in chief, Asahi Shimbun.

This article first appeared here in Asahi Shimbun.