Only days ago, Wen blew the trumpet call for political reform and democratisation again in front of CNN journalist Fareed Zakaria. ‘I believe’, he said, ‘and all the Chinese people have such a conviction, that China will make continuous progress and the people’s wishes for and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible.’

After his little reported speech at the UN on September 23, Wen reiterated China’s commitment to political reform and human rights. ‘We must respect and protect human rights and uphold social justice to realise equitable development and freedoms of individual human being. This is an important marker of democratic country and the rule of law and the fundamental guarantee to long-term stability and governance of a nation’.

What does Liu’s Nobel Prize mean for the prospect of democratisation in China and political fortune of Wen Jiabao?

The elevation of Liu to the pantheon of Nobel Laureates certainly puts Beijing in a defensive position. The Global Times reliably led the attack on the decision to award Liu the Nobel Peace Prize.  The decision was branded as ‘a contempt and challenge to Chinese justice system and yet another arrogant display of Western ideological bias’.

This followed thinly veiled rejection of Wen’s call for political reform by Qiu Shi, CCP’s principal ideological journal. Qiu Shi rejected the political path of Western liberal democracy for China and called for continuing loyalty to Socialist Democracy with Chinese characteristics.

Liu’s Nobel Peace Prize and the attendant international chorus for his release could merely strengthen the voice of hardliners in the party and make it harder and politically more dangerous for progressives to champion the cause of reform.  It will be interesting to see whether Wen continues to advocate for political reform openly in this changed environment.

Debate in the press about Wen’s call for political reform could be stifled; it is one thing to dissect and debate the speech of a ranking politburo member but a totally different game to talk about an imprisoned political opponent to the CCP wearing the halo of a Nobel laureate.

The award of Nobel Peace Prize to another of Beijing’s arch-enemies Dalai Lama did very little to advance the cause for Tibetan autonomy and self-determination in China domestically.  It simply keeps alive a largely lost cause on international stage.

There is little doubt that Liu Xiaobo is a worthy recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize and this decision would give encouragement and comfort to other activists in China.  However, if the aim of this decision is aid the cause of political reform in China and this might have been misguided.  The award of Nobel Peace Prize to one of China’s most well-known dissidents could only give conspiracy theorists within the CCP more ammunition to drum up the fear of a grand Western conspiracy against Red China. As illustrated by Global Times’ reference to award of Nobel Peace Prize to Soviet dissidents and the man who brought down the Soviet Empire, Mr, Gorbachev.

One can only speculate what would happen to the dynamism of debate on democratisation in China if the Nobel Peace Prize would go to Wen Jiabao for his daring call for political reform in China. This idea might not seem to be that radical in light of last year’s decision to award President Obama the coveted prize for his potential to contribute to the peace cause in the Middle East.

Justin Li is principal in the Institute of Chinese Economics and an associate of EAF.