I have a new piece over at Foreign Policy that makes this argument. Basically, four trends are fueling a more competitive US-China economic relationship: (1) US and Chinese firms are increasingly competing head to head; (2) supportive political/business coalitions are fracturing in both countries; (3) both governments’ tolerance for trade conflict is rising; and (4) even as US firms cry foul on market access in China, Beijing is increasingly insistent on reciprocal market access in the United States.

But precisely because both governments’ tolerance for trade conflict is rising, decision-makers on both sides appear to have concluded that such disputes can be managed without undermining the entire US-China relationship. In short, trade conflict is here to stay, but it is fast becoming a ‘new normal’ in US-China relations. There are some risks—and I go into these a little bit in the piece. But the most disruptive risks, I think, lie in geopolitics and in Chinese domestic politics. I’m not losing as much sleep over antidumping suits as I am over colliding security interests, the future of the Chinese navy, and disruptive political events.

Evan A. Feigenbaum is head of the Asia practice group at the Eurasia Group and adjunct senior fellow for Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

This article was first posted here by the Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Unbound blog.