Author: Mahani Zainal Abidin, ISIS

After taking office in April 2009, Prime Minister Najib Razak consolidated his position in 2010 as he introduced plans to transform the economy and the public sector.

Najib’s popularity was further bolstered by Malaysia’s robust economic performance and a foreign policy that saw relations with key countries improve rapidly. Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

As Asia rings in 2011, will it ring in a new economic order too? For two generations, with India a conspicuous exception, much of Asia relied on global demand to power its growth. But as the world economy claws its way back from crisis, others are looking to Asia to step up and lead.

With the glaring exception of Japan, Asian economies are recovering earlier and stronger than nearly all others. And from Bangalore to Beijing, Asians have become a force on the global canvas — trading, building, investing, and innovating. Read more…

Author: Andrew MacIntyre, ANU

Australia continues to enjoy markedly better economic performance than most other wealthy countries. But problems are accumulating.

The 2010 federal election yielded a hamstrung, minority government. Neither of the major parties shows any real appetite for large-scale policy reform. Read more…

Sunny Tanuwidjaja, CSIS, Jakarta

At the centre of the current debate on reforming Indonesia’s electoral system is how to reduce the number of parties. Despite the broad agreement on its necessity, such a change will be difficult to achieve given the current political structure.

One of the most contentious issues in improving Indonesia’s electoral system is how the new electoral law can reduce the number of parties. Since the beginning of Reformasi, Indonesia has been dealing with a fragmented parliament and party system. Read more…

Author: Aaron Batten, Ministry of Finance, Malawi

Optimism continues to run high about PNG’s development prospects.

The last eight years have seen sustained growth across the PNG economy – the first time since independence. It is also the first time that real per capita incomes have begun to increase after a 30 year period of stagnation. Formal sector employment across all industries is now at record levels. Read more…

Author: Andrew Low, RedBridge Grant Samuel

It has now become conventional wisdom in Australia to observe that the growth of China and, to a lesser extent, other countries in Asia rescued our economy from a likely recession after the global financial crisis. While a sound banking system and proactive fiscal and monetary response were also important, Australia was fortunate to be the most proximate and efficient quarry for commodity-hungry capital investment in the region.

There is, however, a danger that Australia’s good fortune in having good customers and terms of trade might lead it to overlook the other fundamental changes going on in the region. Read more…

Author: Nicholas Farrelly, ANU

In Thailand’s traditional style of kick-boxing, the bout begins with ornate and time-consuming preambles. Offerings are made. Respect is shown. Brutal bursts of punches, high kicks, knees and elbows follow. It is fast and furious combat that rewards total commitment once the fight begins.

As a public spectacle of martial prowess, Thai kick-boxing offers some insight into the formidable capacity for violence which can lurk in the corner of the easy-going Thai smile. Read more…

Author: Jiahua Pan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing

Although many external observers remain sceptical, China has in fact made substantial and successful efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Still, to ensure concerted, forward-moving action there is a need to understand the dilemma from a Chinese perspective. And what must be recognised is the need for low-carbon transformation to be adapted to suit China’s development and its status as a developing country.

To begin, it is important to realise why Beijing chose not to accept a 50 per cent emission reduction by 2050 at Copenhagen in December 2009. Read more…

Author: Gary Hawke, NZIER

At home, New Zealand marked time in 2010. Public commentary remained dominated by apprehension about the international economy. The Governor of the Reserve Bank published a memoir about the very reasonable worries over what could have happened but didn’t. The financial crisis in Europe and North America, which triggered a trade crisis in Asia, ultimately had only a moderate impact in New Zealand, which was also true for much of Asia. New Zealand’s insecurity is due to investment exceeding national saving and that is domestically driven.

After 24 years of sound government accounts, government expenditure has been allowed to exceed revenue and this is expected to continue for some time. This is partly attributable to the government’s response to the global financial crisis but more much to decay of the effective expenditure control, which was one of the least-heralded but most important of New Zealand’s economic reforms in the eighties. Read more…

Author: Peter Drysdale, ANU

In 2010, East Asia Forum’s most widely read essay was Yiping Huang’s Five Predictions for the Chinese Economy in 2010. For some, China’s ability to achieve strong growth amid global recession was the biggest surprise of 2009.

For him, it was not. The Chinese government’s abilities in mobilising resources strengthened, not weakened, significantly over the past decade, he argued. If the government really believed that 8 per cent growth was critical for social stability, then they had the ability to deliver.

We begin the weekly essay series for 2011 with another of Huang’s thoughtful pieces on the risks to China’s economic growth in 2011. Read more…

Author: Yiping Huang, Peking University and the ANU

A year ago, I made five predictions for the Chinese economy in 2010 in an article prepared for this Forum: 1) the renminbi will probably begin to appreciate against the dollar; 2) job market pressures may rise again even as the economy recovers; 3) housing prices would probably begin to weaken; 4) structural imbalances were likely to deteriorate further; and 5) the government would likely introduce another stimulus package.

Now that the year 2010 has retreated into the rear vision mirror, we can confirm that predictions (1), (3) and (4) actually occurred, but prediction (2) didn’t materialize. Read more…

Author: Josef T. Yap, PIDS

After two years of slow growth — owing primarily to the repercussions of the 2008 global financial and economic crisis — the Philippine economy expanded by 7.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2010. The growth rate in 2010 is nearly equal to that of 2007 which is not surprising since economic activity in both years was boosted by election spending. The new administration has therefore benefited from favourable economic conditions. The challenge is to sustain the momentum and make economic growth more inclusive and balanced.

In the short-term, the Philippines, like many other emerging market economies, has to deal with the surge in foreign capital inflows. The peso appreciated by 5.6 per cent in the first 11 months of the year. Read more…