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A change in Egypt’s political weather filters through to China

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In Brief

There are so many levels of fascination in what is happening in the Arab world today. Expectations of revolution, fear of instability, the survival of secular governance over theocracy, the future of democracy, the power of Facebook and Twitter  — the list is long. Media reports have been excitable and it is too early to digest all the implications of the historic event.

One aspect of the reports deserves attention: These noted that China's media kept its reporting of the events in Cairo low-key and that the word 'Egypt' was kept off the internet. Ever since the middle of last month, when the Tunisian president fell, the Western media has noted what the Chinese press has failed to report.

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In China, the stress has been on concerns for stability. The range of emotions on display in Cairo’s Tahrir — or ‘Liberation’ — Square was largely downplayed. Not surprisingly, words such as freedom, democracy and revolution were not to be found in Chinese reports.

However, in anticipation of President Hosni Mubarak’s departure, Chinese blogs did compare Liberation Square with Tiananmen. The consensus was that China was different from Egypt but that there were lessons to be learnt.

At one extreme, as one might expect, there were voices calling on the Chinese people to see what the Egyptian people had achieved and thus not be afraid. At the other, there were sober assessments of the damage done to Egypt’s economy.

Among the many comments in between were reminders that the income inequality in China had become more obvious, that efforts to limit widespread corruption were superficial, and that political reform had not been pursued as promised. Others chose to emphasise the need for China’s economy to grow further.

Wherever possible, people were finding reasons to say why China was different from Egypt, although much remained to be done in China. Underlying all the commentary was the idea that change was normal and always to be expected. Nothing can remain the same for long.

That belief comes from the classic of change, the Yijing , and is an idea that the Chinese people have lived with and believed in since their civilisation emerged over 3,000 years ago.

But the popular word for change is not yi but bian , now a powerful word employed in many contexts. One of its recent uses is captured in the term biantian, a changed sky or heaven.

This is derived from innocent references to sudden changes in the weather. Especially in our era of global warming and climate change, it is a term appropriate for describing the sudden snowfalls and unseasonable floods and droughts that have been reported everywhere.

But biantian has also been used in the language of politics, notably for regime change. The term is notoriously imprecise. It was first applied to the overthrow of reactionary rulers. Mao Zedong approved its use for the fall of the Manchu ‘bureaucratic state’ as well as of the inept and corrupt Kuomintang regime, but the word did not become popular.

Probably in retaliation, Taiwanese politicians popularised a variation of the term, bianse, using change to refer to changes of colour — for example, from blue to red, a reference to when the ‘red’ communists won on the mainland in 1949, overthrowing the ‘blue’ Kuomintang.

Recently, the word has also been used in Taiwan to describe dramatic changes via the ballot box — as in blue to green when Mr Chen Shui-bian won the Taiwanese presidency in 2000, and back from green to blue when Mr Ma Ying-jeou won eight years later.

For such changes, no matter how dramatic, words such as revolution and liberation do not apply. Biantian can represent change without violence and bloodshed. Thus the word has even been applied to the election of Mr Barack Obama as President of the United States, a dramatic and once unthinkable event that put an African-American in the White House.

This term has since been used to describe what has happened in Tunisia and Egypt. The blogs using the word reflect the hope that peaceful biantian can occur in China in ways that will not threaten stability.

By implication, this suggests that the Chinese leadership need not fear instability when it responds more tangibly to the people’s wishes for justice and respect.

But will the usage of the word in this context be accepted in China? The Chinese language is wonderfully plastic.

Biantian once had astrological connotations, alluding to the victory of the yang of light over the yin of darkness that led to the creation of all things.

In modern times, it came to refer to dramatic weather changes but also, following Mao, to the act of replacing a reactionary system with a progressive one. Today, it still captures the idea of regime change for the better.

In the word tian, heaven or sky, many Chinese would also think of change that receives Heaven’s blessing and is thus a righteous cause. And as major Chinese philosophers since Confucius and Mencius have all proclaimed: The mandate to rule comes from seeing the people’s wellbeing as the source of social harmony.

China is not Egypt, and biantian — making changes to meet Heaven’s wishes — is not something that any Chinese should fear.

Wang Gungwu is chairman of the East Asia Institute, National University of Singapore.

This article originally appeared here in the Straits Times, 16 February 2011. Source: The Straits Times © Singapore Press Holdings Limited. Reprinted with permission

2 responses to “A change in Egypt’s political weather filters through to China”

  1. The Tian An Men event on the June Fourth 1989 came before the fall of Berlin Wall, and the collapse of the former USSR.
    After the collapse of the former USSR and the east Europe communist bloc (some before the fall and some after, but they were but they were after all the Tian An Men event), Deng adopted the so called “dao guang yang hui” strategy, so China kept a very low international profile and was largely focused on its internal economic growth.
    Now the events in the middle east and north Africa are still unfolding and the eventual outcomes remain uncertain.
    How the Chinese communist government and leaders will view and learn from these events and what strategies they will adopt in the future are anyone’s guess at the moment.
    Wang’s ‘bian tian’ has very different meanings to different Chinese. And I am sure he understands that very well, though in the post he has put it in the best light possible for outsiders to see his logic.
    Will the communist government allow ‘bian tian’ to take place?

  2. I think a regime change is unlikely in the near feature when the authoritarian Party-state still reigns in the dragon country. But one thing we should keep in mind is that China ‘s development prospect is unlike that of Japan, Korea or other East Asia tigers. The complexities of China make its future more unpredictable . We have seen increasinly more fractiousness and tensions in Chinese society. Whether such ‘internal conflicts within people’ (‘Renmin neibu maodun’ in Chinese diction ) will eventually become a wide-spread challenge legitamacy of the Party state is another question? Bian tian then may be imminent. But we can hardly see any such signs yet .

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