It is likely that the Japanese public will be united in their resistance toward nuclear power. Such resistance was galvanised in the US, which stopped building nuclear plants after the 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear disaster. In the wake of Japan’s disaster, there are also signs of a growing rift between European states over the use of nuclear energy.

The kneejerk reaction of governments is to turn to other methods of energy production that are deemed to be safer. After all, even highly developed industrialised states like Japan and the US could not prevent nuclear accidents from happening. Therefore, in order for states to reduce their carbon emissions (or at least be seen to be paying lip service to achieving this objective) they must utilise other more climate change friendly options such as building wind farms and encouraging the use of hybrid or electric vehicles. Such a development is highly plausible as governments attempt to advertise their green credentials to their nuclear-wary electorates. But an unintended side effect of this is that it will increase the global demand for rare metals.

Rare metals play an instrumental role in many green technologies. For instance, terbrium, dysprosium and neodymium are required in the manufacturing of high-strength, lightweight magnets found in the motors of hybrid automobiles such as the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight, and are also used in the production of motors for wind turbines.

As such, even prior to Japan’s nuclear crisis, the US Department of Energy (DoE) was already devoting significant attention toward developing a strategic plan for rare metals and related research and development. As evidence of its commitment to developing green cars, the DoE, through its Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Incentive Program, provided US$25 billion in direct loans as a catalyst to increase development of clean-car technology in the US in 2008. In announcing the development of its first strategic plan for rare metals in 2010, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Policy and International Affairs, David Sandalow noted a desire to ‘create jobs, cut costs and reduce pollution’ for ‘a clean energy future,’ and an objective of better understanding ways of using rare metals more efficiently and developing substitutes to minimise the likelihood of the US facing a potential shortage of rare metals in the future.

The US is hardly alone in paying more attention to rare metals. Since China temporarily suspended its rare metals exports to Japan in September 2010 (due to a maritime dispute near the contested Senkaku Islands), Japan and South Korea have started stockpiling these natural resources in order to better withstand disruptions to the China-dominated supply chain. Likewise, China, which currently produces more than 90 per cent of the global supply of rare metals, has also implemented a similar policy. In effect, these stockpiling strategies only serve to heighten demand; and this at a time when consumption levels of rare metals is going up due to the increased popularity of green technologies.

Heightened demand will not pose a serious problem if states are able to freely procure rare metals on the free market. The issue lies in the Chinese government’s tight rare metals trade regulation policy, and its simultaneous reducing of export quotas and export permits in recent years. China’s objective is to strengthen its dominance over this increasingly important industry. Although Wen Jiabao claims that China is not planning to use rare metals for political leverage, it still remains to be seen if such a stance will persist into the future.

In the short-term, although demand for rare metals is increasing, it is unlikely to lead to an outright conflict. Still, taking a long-term perspective, it is important to pay attention to this issue as it represents a new front in the competition for resources, and yet another source of tension in international relations that could well become a tipping point in years to come.

Ming Hwa Ting is an Associate Lecturer at the Centre for Asian Studies, University of Adelaide. He is also the inaugural Bill Cowan-Barr Smith Library Fellow and a member of the Pacific Forum-CSIS Young Leaders program.