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China's defence posture and Australian interests

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In Brief

We frequently question China’s military build-up without paying regard to China’s own circumstances. Their nuclear armoury, for example, is not much larger than Israel’s and probably on par with Britain and France.

So far it has only been a deterrent force in fixed silos. But for such a deterrent force to be effective it would need to be housed in submarines whose location cannot be easily found.

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In Australia the press seems quite hostile to China in ways I believe are misleading and damaging. A more reasoned consideration of China’s defence posture is called for.

China has on its borders some of the world’s most unsettled and dangerous countries.

North Korea is unpredictable. Further afield, the outcome in Iraq is problematic. In Afghanistan there is little sign of real military progress. Then there is Pakistan. Here, an overwhelming number of Pakistanis believe the US has required Pakistan, in the name of the war against terror, to do things contrary to Pakistan’s own interests. India and Pakistan, dangerous rivals capable of starting a nuclear war, are right on China’s borders.

These unsettled borders give China a strong external rationale for reinvigorating her armed forces. But China’s military development is miniscule compared to the 60 per cent of world expenditure on arms which derives from the US alone. Even Japan’s military forces are far more formidable than many believe.

The United States attempts under the Bush administration to persuade Japan, India and Australia to participate in an anti-ballistic missile shield could only be regarded as inimical to Chinas interests. And it was foolish of Australia and of Japan to consider participating in such arrangements.

In recent years successive governments have believed they best served Australia’s interests by doing whatever the US wanted. Such attitudes do not strengthen the alliance but weaken it because most Australians believe we have Australian interests which do not always coincide with those of the US. Blind submission on the part of government undermines public support for the alliance. Participation in the Iraq War was a classic example. ANZUS was invoked, but ANZUS is a treaty strictly limited by geography. Iraq and Afghanistan are far beyond its bounds.

It was not only a question of going to war at America’s behest. We also accepted, unlike the UK, that the US had the right to imprison Australians in Guantanamo Bay and subject them to torture. There was no protest from the Australian Government. Instead, there was connivance in a trial that would have been regarded as illegal in Australia or in Britain

America now moves in a different direction but the legacy of debt and over-extended commitments created in the Bush era have left President Obama with intractable and extraordinarily difficult problems.

What happens at the end of President Obama’s first term is enormously important not only to America but to the world. Whatever the criticisms might be from time to time, America has done so much for the world and American leadership remains the best hope for peace and cooperation.

Australia has always had a sense of dependence. We had no defence or foreign policy up to the time of the second war — we relied on Britain. When British help proved unavailable we immediately turned to the US, where for too many people it has remained ever since. That has infected the relationship, especially in recent years.

Too few people know that when the Chinese were shelling the Quemoy and Matsu offshore islands in the Taiwan Straits in the middle 1950s, at a time when President Eisenhower moved the Pacific Fleet in or close to those Straits, Prime Minister Menzies quietly told the President that if there were a war with China over Taiwan that was their affair and not Australia’s. Contrast that attitude with attitudes expressed by recent governments.

The last Defence White Paper was arguably the worst White Paper published in over 40 years. It has been the most damaging, the most destructive, the most extravagant and arguably the most foolish statement of Austrlain interests.

The US alliance is important but it does not mean we should do exactly what America wants. We must have a mind of our own and carefully judge Australia’s interests. We have not done that in recent times.

We have not all fully accepted that we are part of one world and being one world does not just imply financial deregulation and freedom of trade. It implies, in all respects, policies that are free of racism and discrimination on any grounds whatsoever.

The debates that continue in our Federal Parliament do us great damage and demean Australia. In my view, they do not represent the best of Australia which would support quite different policies if given the lead.

These may be sobering thoughts but they are ones that Australians need to consider if we wish, as we should, to play a constructive role in Asian and world affairs. We have done good things in the post war years. We need to build on them and put aside the negatives. With other middle-ranking powers we could do much to create a more secure world, and especially a securer Asia.

The Rt Hon. Malcolm Fraser AC CH was the Prime Minister of Australia from November 1975 until March 1983. This is a digest of a speech he presented at ANU Asia Pacific Week 2011. 

5 responses to “China’s defence posture and Australian interests”

  1. Mr Fraser writes:

    “China has on its borders some of the world’s most unsettled and dangerous countries.

    North Korea is unpredictable. The outcome in Iraq is problematic.”

    Both statements are true. But what atlas is he using? Since when is Iraq anywhere near China’s borders?

    Next, he’ll be telling us the South China Sea belongs to China….

  2. It is wrong to Justify Chinese military build up and Chinese possession of nuclear arsenal by pointing to the troubled neighbors. Two of the most dangerous countries namely Pakistan and N- Korea are in fact the client states of China and China had acted hypocritically when world community formulated policies on these countries.

  3. I wonder how many people realise Australia (RBA) are still avid US Treasury Bonds buyers, bonds that enjoy virtually junk status; regarded as one of the riskiest investments one can make.
    Q: I wonder how many we’d be buying if it was the politicians own money that was buying them ?
    A: NONE
    You brought up about us being in partnership with the USA & us being the subserviant one, a point a wholly agree with.
    When John Howard was in power it was embarassing the way he crawled to Bush on behalf of Australia, how could anybody respect someone in a partnership that was so subserviant to them. Many other Aust Prime Ministers haven’t been much better but Howard’s grovelling won was exceptional.
    I am definitely NOT anti USA, I’ve met many great Americans; found most of them akin to us in just wanting a fair go with a growing distrust of their politicians; their own objectives. The USA is our most important ally; but for them we in Australia would be speaking Japanese, we do owe them, we should appreciate their great effort; always remember however this should NOT extend to total obsience to whatever, any pertnership is only as strong as the respect that exists between the participants.
    This is similar to the way many people give a certain political party their lifelong devotion no matter how badly they perform.
    This does NOT help the future of Australia, as both main political parties are virtually the same, they have become self-serving and duplicitous and purpetuate the two party system knowing that one or the other will be elected. If we want real political reform in this country; we must break this totally illogical way we make a committment to one political party, we MUST turn away from the two main parties; elect true independants or minority parties, only then will we see real political reform. We now have very poor standard of politician now because we have let them get away with anything with little to no responsibility for their actions. They enjoy perks that most people dream of with many of them not having a hope in hell in obtaining a similar position in the private sector. I remember a time when politicians were well respected people in the community but now most are looked upon as not much better than criminals, something that now STOPS many decent people who could make a great contribution to Australia from running for office for fear of inheriting the same lack of respect; Australia will suffer greatly from this unless we get our act together soon.
    Not many countries have had the head start we did with just about every element in abundance yet our overseas debt is soon to hit the trillion dollar mark.
    Change won’t happen through those at the trough now; they have it far too good SO the only way it will happen apart from a revolution is to NOT vote for either of the two main parties until they themselves have changed; are once again worthy of our vote not just hand it to them routinely every election day.
    It’s really not that much to ask, for the future of our country.

  4. Developing a Nuclear Arsenal is a defensive undertaking.
    China built it to counter USSR after the Sino-Soviet split.
    India built it to counter China.
    Pakistan to counter India.
    and so on..

    It is a weapon of the weak to reach equilibrium or near it.

    Australia i feel could very well be a cause of future conflict, not only because of its resources but because of its demographic and its location.

    The people there need to understand they are in Asian-sphere and continually siding with the US and West unconditionally,
    at times to the determent of the Asian region will not be tolerated forever,
    certainly not in 50-60 years when the region is much more wealthy and influential on World stage.

    Choose your friends carefully.

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