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The return of Japan’s shadow shogun Ichiro Ozawa?

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In Brief

Diet politicians in Japan’s ruling party are reverting to form: they are consumed with the politics of power and position rather than with policy.

The last thing Japan needs at this time is more jockeying for political advantage among a group of would-be prime ministers. But that is what is occurring as the process of replacing Prime Minister Kan reaches its expected climax on the 29th of this month.

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A tug-of-war over policies is disguising what is, in reality, a struggle for power. While the job-seekers in line for the prime ministership pay lip service to a set of policy convictions, with some hopefuls issuing policy statements or publicising their ‘visions’ for the future, their main ambition is not to implement a set of policies (let alone carry out much-needed political reforms) but simply to gain the highest office in the land as an end in itself. Not only are they driven by a desire for the status and prestige, but also by a sense of entitlement — that it is their ‘turn’.

At the centre of all this politicking is, once again, Ichiro Ozawa. No doubt, he will live up to his reputation as a ‘shadow shogun’ (yamishogun), ‘wire-puller’ (kagemusha) and ‘puppet master pulling the strings from behind the scenes’ (kuromaku). The sort of influence that Ozawa wields is ‘the power of numbers’, a lesson he learnt from his old boss and mentor, former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka. The number he can muster for the leadership ballot is said to be about 120, which makes it the biggest group in the DPJ. This means it will have the casting vote in the selection of the next DPJ leader and prime minister and, at the very least, will offer crucial support for the victor.

Moreover, Ozawa has recently been working overtime to strengthen the solidarity of his group to ensure they vote as a reliable bloc after signs of disunity in the wake of the failed no-confidence vote in the Kan government in June. Ozawa recently said on NHK News 7, ‘What is important is that we unite and this time we’ll be able to win’. Ozawa has also been meeting with former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama with a view to cooperating in order to hold sway as the largest bloc of votes within the DPJ.

Clearly the would-be prime ministers beating a path to Ozawa’s door think that his support is indispensable. Current Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda (who put his name forward in the very early stages of the hunt for a Kan replacement) met with a close associate of Ozawa’s back in June, just after Kan announced he would resign at an unspecified date in the future. Superficially, Ozawa and Noda do not have much in common when it comes to their declared policy positions. Ozawa is opposed to a rise in the consumption tax, but Noda in his ‘Visions for an Administration’ published in Bungei Shunju, on 10 August, expressed a strong determination to hike the consumption tax to 10 per cent by the mid-2010s. More immediately, Noda has advocated tax increases to raise revenue for post-quake reconstruction as well as an early decision on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to which the Ozawa group is opposed.

Others seeking to get Ozawa on side are former Transport Minister Sumio Mabuchi, former Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa and current Agriculture Minister Michihiko Kano. When the Environment Minister met with Ozawa, he expressed his desire to receive Ozawa’s ‘instructions’. Mabuchi met Ozawa twice as well as a group of his young supporters, and is making the right noises by opposing the consumption tax and Kan’s confrontationist attitude towards Ozawa. Kano was an early prospect for support from the Ozawa group but will reserve his final decision on whether to run after talking to Ozawa this week. A late entrant is METI Minister Banri Kaieda who has met with both Ozawa and Hatoyama, asking for their assistance. Even Seiji Maehara, who has just announced his decision to run, is said to have curried favour with a key Ozawa ally earlier this year. Some members of the Ozawa group have also expressed support for him as offering the best prospect to revive the DPJ’s fortunes.

But Ozawa’s support will come at a price (one which Kan found too heavy to pay). The selection process for party leader is tailor-made for Ozawa to ride back to power. His influence is already being reflected in the requests of several prime ministerial contenders for a reinstatement of Ozawa’s membership in the DPJ (currently under suspension).

In exchange for delivering what is effectively the prime ministership, Ozawa will exercise veto power over key appointments in the new administration and over key policies. This is exactly what he did with the Hatoyama administration and others before it such as the Kaifu administration of 1989–91 and the Hosokawa administration of 1993–94. The recently-published memoirs of both Kaifu and Hosokawa are replete with the difficulties they had in dealing with Ozawa.

The contenders who are approaching Ozawa seem to be willing to pay the price. Kan, for all his faults, would not compromise on his principle of keeping Ozawa firmly at arms length. He established an Ozawa-free government but he also paid a price of sorts. He had to contend with endless sabotage of his administration by Ozawa and his group who acted as Ozawa proxies both in the Diet and in the party.

What the DPJ needs now is a leader who can unify the DPJ and eliminate the axis of confrontation — Ozawa vs. anti-Ozawa — whilst not allowing a dual structure of power to develop. If the behaviour of the aspirants beating a path to Ozawa’s door is any indication, this looks unlikely.

Aurelia George Mulgan is Professor of Politics at the University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.

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