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Yoshihiko Noda, Japan’s not-so-ordinary prime minister

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In Brief

Yoshihiko Noda’s victory in the race for the DPJ leadership this week greatly surprised the pundits and even many in the DPJ itself.

There was an audible gasp from the assembled DPJ Diet members when Noda’s high vote tally was read out after the first round of balloting.

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Many outside observers thought that DPJ Diet members had taken leave of their senses. To pass over someone like Seiji Maehara, with the highest public popularity rating of any politician in Japan, for someone like Noda, who barely registered on the popularity scale, seemed to fly in the face of good political judgment, particularly at a time when the DPJ’s stocks are so low.

But Noda in many ways represents a new, younger generation of politicians in Japan, and (despite an extreme right-wing position on Japan’s convicted war criminals) belongs to the progressive urban wing of the DPJ. In that respect, he exemplifies the DPJ’s true character as a predominantly urban-based reform party. And like many urban-based DPJ politicians, Noda is anti-bureaucracy and anti-vested interests.

Noda is a professional politician by training, and could not be more different from the old (LDP) politics model of hereditary, rural-based, special-interest-bound politicians. Noda is, as he describes himself, ‘an ordinary man’, and in one respect looks like a typical urban ‘salaryman’. He has no links to special interests, no moneyed connections and relies on his oratory skills to convince constituents to vote for him. His almost daily public speeches in his electorate were the making of him as a politician. These oratory skills came in handy when persuading fellow DPJ Diet members to vote for him this week; an added flourish was his self-deprecating humour, which only served to underline his sincerity.

A collection of ‘sayings’ posted on his website showcases his ability for original rhetorical flourishes as well as the exercise of ‘soft’ power. Noda calls for reform of Japan’s vested interest system, including the ‘iron triangle of politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen’, which was so entrenched under the LDP. He also describes himself as an advocate of deregulation and a free-market economy, arguing the LDP had to be ousted because ‘You can’t do drastic reforms [under the LDP-led administration]’. More recently, Noda is on record as supporting Japan’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, signalling that he is open to the prospect of greater Japanese trade liberalisation.

Looking at Noda’s Diet career, which began in 1993 as a member of the reform-oriented Japan New Party, his particular strengths are in financial and fiscal affairs, and in the management of the party’s legislative program in the Diet. These are two key areas of expertise that will come in handy in the political and policy environment he finds himself in at present. Moreover, his record as shadow minister of finance in the DPJ’s ‘Next Cabinet’, deputy minister of finance and minister of finance are a mark of his own expertise in this policy area, giving the lie to critics who wrote him off in the election this week as merely the Ministry of Finance’s candidate.

In a broader sense, it does not matter who Japan’s prime minister is. Not only does Japan have a parliamentary cabinet system, which provides for collective responsibility for government policies, but any prime minister’s capacity for exercising leadership is also severely constricted by a range of factors. These include extremely high levels of public debt, constraining government spending, and, not least, powerful vested interests that block change, in particular the institutionalised interests of vertically-divided ministries and politically-entrenched local, sectional and clientelistic interests. No matter what reforms ever make it on to the public policy agenda, they immediately become a signal to special interests to mobilise, with the result that policies for change end up being blocked, emasculated or shelved. Noda will doubtless be stymied by vested interests at every turn.

On top of these obstacles, the new prime minister must contend with two other extreme difficulties in managing his government: an inability to get legislation passed without concessions to opposition parties and a party split down the middle into pro- and anti-Ozawa camps. Healing this rift is likely beyond Noda and anyone else in his shoes. As a new breed of politician, Noda in his outlook and modus operandi could not be more different from Ozawa. However, a key indicator of how he is dealing with this issue comes in his appointment of an Ozawa ally, Azuma Koshiishi, as DPJ secretary-general. This was undoubtedly a conciliatory gesture for the sake of party unity, but it will effectively put the party into Ozawa’s hands in terms of electoral endorsements and funding, signalling that Noda has already capitulated to the Ozawa side on party matters. The same may not be true of the policy side with Maehara appointed as chairman of the DPJ’s Policy Affairs Research Council. Maehara will likely resist Ozawa’s interference in the party’s policy affairs.

In the wake of the most recent disasters, the Japanese public’s faith and trust in government is at a new, all-time low. As the former head of the DPJ secretariat, Atsuo Ito, said: Japan has moved from ‘the politics of distrust’ to ‘the politics of despair’.

Whether Noda can rescue his country from this deep low remains to be seen. New prime ministers have come and gone in the past: they briefly energise the political scene, only to sink quickly into the political mire.

Aurelia George Mulgan is Professor at the University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.

One response to “Yoshihiko Noda, Japan’s not-so-ordinary prime minister”

  1. Another interesting aspect of Mr. Noda’s career is his involvement with the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management (松下政経塾) which he shared with his principle competitor, Seiji Maehara. This is one version of his anti-political dynasty and hereditary politicians perspective

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