Author: Sheila A Smith, CFR

The Kan cabinet is facing a defining moment in Japan’s postwar nuclear debate.

With the bulk of nuclear reactors now offline, the country is holding its breath over how Prime Minister Naoto Kan will proceed. Read more…

Author: Paul Dibb, ANU

The debate in Australia about the rise of China’s military power continues to rage. It is as if China is already knocking on our door and about to pose a direct threat to us.

But the reality is quite different. Read more…

Author: Pisit Leeahtam, Chiang Mai University

Since the 2006 coup, which ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, there have been two general elections in Thailand.

Both these elections — in 2007 and 2011 — saw successor parties allied with Thaksin win more seats than any other party, all while Thaksin himself was in exile. Read more…

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, EAF

Rather than restoring confidence in the United States’ setting a course for sustainable recovery from the financial (and policy) failures that precipitated the global financial crisis, the debt-ceiling deal last week has significantly elevated the probability of a double dip American recession and put on display for all to see the contemporary flaws in the American political system.

The antics of the Congressional leadership and the cynical, half-baked nature of the deal that they put in place, has downgraded US economic and political assets around the world. Read more…

Author: Barry Eichengreen, UC Berkeley

How serious is the risk of a double dip recession in the US and Europe? Why did global stock markets fall so dramatically last week? How worried should Asia be? The answers, I submit, are: we don’t know, we don’t know, and very.

Start with the stock market. Read more…

Author: Michael Cucek, MIT

On 27 July, the race to replace Naoto Kan as president of the Democratic Party of Japan, and consequently as prime minister, officially began.

First out of the blocks was former Minister of the Environment Sakihito Ozawa, who recently released a policy statement and a declaration of his candidacy for the presidency of the DPJ. Second among the potential candidates to semi-declare was Sumio Mabuchi, the former minister of transport. Read more…

Authors: Uwe Kaufmann, Di Yuan, Altaf Alam and Faqin Lin, University of Adelaide

Fair trade and ‘Fairtrade’ products have become a topic of great interest in Australia and some of its trading partners.

The Pacific Forum Island countries (PICs) are enjoying free market access to Australia and New Zealand under the non-reciprocal South Pacific Regional Trade and Economic Cooperation Agreement (SPARTECA). Read more…

Author: Lena Ren, Yale University

From a country that was isolated from the rest of the world a mere three decades ago, China has transformed into the world’s second largest economy with average growth rates of more than 10 per cent over the past thirty years.

But now as China pushes forward into a new decade, the unprecedented speed of its economic growth has given rise to many issues that threaten to destabilise its economy and social stability. Read more…

Author: Philippa Dee, ANU

Nurul Islam makes some interesting observations about whether outside policy advice is likely to affect policy outcomes.

Based on his experience, he argues that advice to politicians should be offered only when it is solicited, and it is more likely to be solicited when politicians are out of office. Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

China has unsettled its neighbours with naval displays and diplomatic spats.

But could erstwhile Asian strategic rivals end up as big winners from China’s economic success? Read more…

Author: Ming Hwa Ting, The University of Adelaide

A recent publication in Nature Geoscience, announcing the detection of significant deposits of rare earth elements in the seabeds of the Eastern and Southern Pacific Ocean, has resulted in media outlets reporting the deposits are ‘readily extractable’, the BBC reporting the deposits could be as large as 100 billion tons.

Such optimism is unwarranted, and the veracity of these media reports cannot be established, at least from the actual July paper which in fact avoided such bold claims. Read more…

Author: Quansheng Zhao, American University

A new pattern of leadership has emerged in Asia Pacific international relations.

In the economic arena, China has gradually gained the upper hand and begun to play a leading role in certain dimensions, but in terms of military, security and political influence, the United States maintains a hegemonic position far ahead of other major powers. Read more…

Author: Bob Birrell, Monash University

The Australian Government is caught between two contending pressures regarding its population policy. The first is concern over the impact of rapid metropolitan population growth on urban quality of life, including in congestion, urban amenities and rising house prices.

The second is a business-advocated argument that a high population rate is necessary to sustain high aggregate economic growth, and ensure the continued vitality of the resources sector. Read more…

Author: Daljit Singh, ISEAS

The outcome of discussions on the South China Sea issue at the 18^th ARF meeting in Bali on 23 July and the preceding officials’ meetings was positive.

Importantly, ASEAN and China agreed on guidelines to implement the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct (DoC) of Parties in the South China Sea. Read more…

Author: Yuhan Zhang, Columbia University

While many Chinese pundits and scholars are applauding for China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) as a milestone for China’s green revolution, the country’s march to low energy consumption and low carbon economy is not going to be a smooth or straight one.

China’s five-year plans, albeit strategically sound, are not likely to change the short- and medium-term energy and climate landscapes. Challenges will remain. Read more…