His landslide election victory two years ago indicated the weight of public expectation on Yudhoyono — which he has so far failed to live up to. In fact, many have characterised his second term as no different from the first: Yudhoyono is seen as more rhetoric than substance, and prone to indecisiveness and weak leadership. These characteristics are most clearly visible in the context of three fundamental issues facing Indonesia today: widespread corruption, stalling bureaucratic reform and the need for greater religious freedom. Yudhoyono often prefers the ‘middle way’ in order to avoid conflict, even if this means making no decision. In light of this demeanour, it is not surprising that his approval rating has plummeted from as high as 90 per cent to as low as 40 per cent.

When approval ratings are low, a cabinet reshuffle can be an effective tool to improve public standing. In his first term, Yudhoyono reshuffled the cabinet twice when his approval rating was low, each time resulting in increased public approval. Still, the public’s renewed hope cannot last if this latest reshuffle is not followed by significant changes to the government’s day-to-day activity.

The sheer length of the reshuffle process is seen by critics as emphasising the president’s inability to deal with political pressure. But the problem lies not only in the conduct and the outcome of the reshuffle, but in the reshuffle itself. Of Yudhoyono’s 19 deputy ministers, 13 are new in their posts, and 12 of his 34 ministries will also see new leadership. This significantly changes the cabinet — and shows Yudhoyono’s lack of anticipation, his failure to consider the outcome of possible scenarios, and his inability to put the right people into the right jobs. This is even clearer considering he had already replaced Sri Mulyani Indrawati due to political pressure.

When a president establishes his cabinet for a five-year term, he should expect the cabinet to hold for this entire period. Five years is not a long time to implement reforms in a country as big and as problematic as Indonesia. Such reform requires massive effort, planning and coordination, so a major reshuffle is something any president should avoid. In reality, the working period of any ministry is four rather than five years, as in a competitive political atmosphere there are many distractions as election time approaches. Or in other words: establishing a strong, highly qualified cabinet in order to avoid major changes in the future is crucial to the success of any government.

When Yudhoyono formed his initial cabinet in 2009, the political environment was such that he was forced to negotiate with other parties to fill these positions. But he only negotiated the number of ministries and posts to cede: each party then provided Yudhoyono with its preferred names — and he did not reject them. In light of this questionable backdrop, it is not surprising that the cabinet failed to satisfy both Yudhoyono and the public who gave him such a strong mandate.

Each of the new ministers will now have to deal with at least five challenges: political interests which persistently attempt to penetrate government resources; the political and ineffective nature of the current bureaucracy; the coordination problem across ministries; time limitations; and structural factors, such as a lack of public confidence, intense public scrutiny and high public expectations. Not to mention the uncertainty of the current global economic situation.

Under these conditions, and considering Yudhoyono’s weak leadership style, one can only sympathise with the new ministers — and look forward to minor, if any, breakthroughs in the next 2-3 years.

Sunny Tanuwidjaja is a Research Fellow at the Department of Politics and Social Change at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.