More broadly, we expect an immediate and short-term lockdown in North Korea with restrictions on travel and communications as authorities move to stabilise the situation in preparation for mourning. While some pundits rushed to proclaim the likelihood of instability and provocations, it is more likely that North Korean elites will try to present images of a united front in the short-term despite any backroom manoeuvrings.
We should also watch to see whether Kim Jong-un undertakes a trip to China at some point after the mourning period. Given that China is North Korea’s most important partner, who leads and who goes on this trip will say a lot about North Korea’s political order. A trip by North Korea’s next leader will also indicate that the internal situation has stabilised, and that the leader is confident a coup will not take place in his absence.
The changing political landscape will provide new opportunities to explore innovative policy options. The hope is that policy makers will also react to this situation not just defensively, but proactively, identifying opportunities in the medium term to encourage sensible and outward-looking economic policies in North Korea. In the longer run, this will support the livelihoods and aspirations of the 30 million North Koreans who want better living standards and greater interaction with the outside world.
This opportunity will manifest itself in the medium term after an initial period in which political manoeuvring and concerns with stability drive a tightening of security measures. While Kim Jong-un is young, the team around him includes plenty of old-regime hands and that will ensure some continuity in policies. And while most pundits believe that Kim Jong-un has not had enough time to prepare his leadership credentials, so far it appears that a protocol is in place with Korean Central News Agency rapidly identifying Kim Jong-il’s youngest son as the nation’s rallying point during its announcements. But for others wishing to take up a senior position in the transition, factional jockeying — largely happening behind the scenes — could discourage bold moves. Consequently, expectations in the coming year need to be tempered. In fact, it may even prove harder to reach an agreement with the reclusive state — especially one that is adhered to — while the internal situation is in flux, regardless of whether North Korea’s leadership tries to reach out or not.
As we move further into the future, there is room to experiment with innovative approaches to North Korea as the old guard continues to be phased out. This transitional phase is the critical juncture in which governments around the world should actively reach out to a younger generation of North Koreans to let them know an open door exists for their country to engage with countries such as Australia, Canada and the US. Instead of predicting what kind of leader Kim Jong-un will be, we should focus on identifying how to encourage a new generation of leaders to be proactive in ensuring the population’s human security.
There is much to learn from Switzerland here, which has for many years sponsored capacity building programs that include economics and business training for North Koreans. These programs not only provide skills that aid economic transition, they also reinforce the message that the world is ready to accept North Koreans when the latter are ready to reach out. They equally help us understand what the next generation of North Koreans is thinking. In our workshops on economic policy, North Koreans have shared their hopes for the future, and their opinions on Obama’s ‘strategic patience’ approach, change and foreign cultural influence.
Let us hope that politics does not come in the way of innovative approaches, especially when an opportunity has presented itself. It is important for countries to reach out early and actively with a variety of programs and opportunities to offer a new generation of leaders in North Korea an ‘open path’ to positive change.
Geoffrey K. See is a Founder and Managing Director at Choson Exchange.