Following the excitement at the close of 2010 — with elections and Aung San Suu Kyi’s release — 2011 began in a more sombre way, with emphasis on the nitty-gritty of ‘discipline-flourishing democracy’. Parliament was formed and began sitting; the final government officials left Rangoon for the new capital of Naypyidaw; and Aung San Suu Kyi met with President Thein Sein and tested the limits of her new freedom by travelling outside Rangoon.

Later in the year, the suspension of the Myitsone Dam in Kachin State heated up the political atmosphere, injecting considerable optimism about the new government’s commitment to change. Responding to Aung San Suu Kyi and public opinion for the first time, the government suspended the dam’s construction and challenged Chinese patronage.

This action suggests the government is no longer preoccupied with the ‘threat’ of Aung San Suu Kyi and is, instead of dwelling on the past, forging a path forward. But the most vulnerable time for an historically oppressive and military-dominated government is often during the transition to democracy.

While Thein Sein is currently in charge, his control is yet to be truly tested. Following the suspension of the dam at Myitsone, can he withstand Chinese pressure to resume construction? Is he entrenched enough to resist a coup led by military hardliners opposed to his progressive tendencies? Or will he triumph over the very real threat presented, not only by Aung San Suu Kyi, but by the plethora of newly formed political forces rising in the tentatively liberalised political sphere?

In 2012 there is a chance the country will see a schism within the military, and a coup overthrowing Thein Sein. But unless Thein Sein loses favour with (retired) Senior General Than Shwe — who is rumoured to still wield control over the military from the back room — this is unlikely.

The most likely scenario — and we can only hope for Burma’s sake the one that plays out — will be the continuation and further entrenchment of ‘discipline-flourishing democracy’. While seemingly a contradiction of terms — and despite its countless detractors in the international community — a democratic system tempered by a constitutional requirement for military prominence is perhaps the most favourable outcome for the country’s short-term future.

Perhaps the deciding issue in 2012 will be the border conflicts. The Kachin Independence Army has demonstrated the military’s impotence when faced with a highly motivated guerrilla opponent. The Burmese population and international community — and the larger United Wa State Army further south — have undoubtedly noticed the difficulties which these combatants have presented to government troops.

Instead of viewing the resumed violence as undermining and contradictory to the new government’s progress, it can be seen as simply another way the military-aligned government is consolidating its control over Burma. Strengthening their popular support like never before through moves to placate the population and Aung San Suu Kyi — with the dam suspension and parliament formation — while crushing dissent from competing armies, shows the military is trying to get smarter. It remains to be seen whether this new style of ‘democratic’ dictatorship has longevity.

Jacqueline Menager is a PhD candidate at the College of Asia and the Pacific, the Australian National University.

This is part of a special feature: 2011 in review and the year ahead.