Pyongyang also continued to decline the request from South Korea and the US to stop uranium enrichment before resuming the Six-Party Talks, a major stumbling block to the process. But the South Korean news agency Yonhap reported on 16 December that North Korea finally agreed to suspend enrichment activities. It was around that time that the US government indicated its decision to provide North Korea with nutritional assistance. These contacts and exchanges seemed to mark the end of acute tension between the two Koreas and between the US and North Korea.
Yet this small progress was overwhelmed a few days later by Kim Jong-il’s sudden death. The news shook the world and attracted great international attention, particularly regarding North Korea’s future under its new leader, Kim Jong-un. Unlike his father, Kim Jong-un — believed to be in his late twenties — received only two years of training before he inherited power.
The world may have to wait at least a year to ascertain the likely future stability of Kim Jong-un’s regime. There may be some short-term stability in a crucial period of power transition like this, but nobody knows whether Kim Jong-un will be able to build his own charisma and solidify his power base by successfully handling the many challenges which face North Korea. These issues include poor economic performance, international isolation, food shortages and changing perceptions of ordinary residents due to an ever-increasing inflow of information from the outside world. Both South Korea and the US delivered a carefully prepared message of condolence to North Korea in the hope of establishing more constructive relations following Kim Jong-il’s death. Predictably, China was the first country to express strong political support for the new leader.
The year 2011 was also an important period of change in domestic politics. South Korean voters sent a strong message of dissatisfaction to politicians from both the ruling and the opposition parties. Though South Korea’s economy performed relatively well compared to other countries in the West, many middle- and lower-class Koreans began to feel the negative impact of widening economic polarisation, convinced that the successful economic performance of big businesses had nothing to do with their own lives. Voters became frustrated by the government’s inability to handle problems such as youth unemployment due to jobless growth, an increasingly poor welfare system for low-income groups and the weakening of small- and medium-size enterprises — not to mention the opposition’s inability to offer viable alternatives.
A political backlash against the Lee government’s pursuit of neo-liberal economic policies could clearly be felt in the recent mayoral election in Seoul, held on 26 October. For the first time in history, a civic activist, Park Won-soon, defeated the ruling-party candidate and was elected as mayor.
Another political surprise for most Koreans in 2011 was the sudden appearance of a medical doctor-turned-software businessman, Ahn Chul-soo, as a very popular political figure. His influence was so substantial that the announcement of his support for Park Won-soon boosted Park’s popularity greatly and helped bring him the election victory. Nobody knows yet whether Ahn, currently a dean at Seoul National University, will run for presidency in 2012. But the phenomenon indicates how much Korean voters are dissatisfied with the political establishment.
Despite the political backlash, South Korea does not seem to have an alternative strategy to the utilisation of economic globalisation to underwrite domestic growth. For example, after a few years of delay and heated political debate in both countries, the US Congress finally ratified the Korea–US FTA in October, with the South Korean National Assembly following suit in November. Conclusion of this FTA has significant implications — not only economically, but also politically. This may be why the Chinese government, too, has been eager to conclude an FTA with South Korea in recent years.
In conclusion, the year 2011 marked an important watershed in inter-Korean relations, domestic Korean politics and Korea’s external economic strategy, but many risks and surprises still appear on the horizon.
Yoon Young-kwan is Director at the Center for International Studies, Seoul National University, and served as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade for the Republic of Korea from 2003–04.
This article is part of a special feature: 2011 in review and the year ahead.