At the LDP National Convention last month, Sadakazu Tanigaki, the party’s president, criticised Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) for their handling of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, and labelled the proposed increase in Japan’s consumption tax rate ‘an empty cheat’. In order to return the LDP to power, Tanigaki has also vowed to pressure Noda to dissolve the lower house and call a snap election.

This uncompromising stance is largely in line with the obstructionist attitude adopted by the LDP when Noda’s predecessor, Naoto Kan, was in power, and is likely to continue throughout Noda’s term. Given that the government lacks an upper-house majority, the LDP can effectively block any of the government’s bills, but there are several reasons why this strategy is unlikely to pay strong electoral dividends in the long run.

First, Noda’s major policy agenda is ambitious in scope. He has proposed bills to raise the consumption tax rate from 5 per cent to 10 per cent by 2015, reform independent administrative institutions, reduce the salaries of government employees and advance Japan’s position in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Regardless of whether it can be achieved, Noda’s vow to break with ‘the politics that can’t decide’ and push forward with reform clearly puts the LDP on the defensive. Tanigaki has repeatedly warned that ‘Japan could experience an irreversible national crisis’ in pursuing Noda’s policies. But his party’s unwillingness to reach a compromise with the government exposes the LDP to criticisms of not acting in the national interest. If the prospect of a national crisis does not spur the LDP to enter negotiations with the government over the consumption tax, then what will?

Second, a number of Noda’s policies were either previously supported by the LDP, or overlap with the party’s traditional support base. Tanigaki has rejected talks with the ruling party on the grounds that there is no mention of the proposed consumption tax increase in the DPJ’s 2009 manifesto, but the LDP strongly pushed for the very same proposal in the 2010 House of Councillors election. Further, the DPJ’s support for Japan’s entry into the TPP negotiations, comprehensive reform of the social security system and the reduction of government employees’ wages leaves little room for the LDP to carve out a viable policy alternative. If the DPJ now represents the party of fiscal austerity, trade liberalisation and administrative reform, where exactly does the LDP fit into Japan’s party system, and how can it distinguish itself from the ruling party?

Third, despite declining electoral support for Noda’s cabinet, the LDP has failed to make the most of recent political events and increase its own standing. According to a recent Yomiuri Shimbun poll, support for the DPJ has risen from 22 per cent to 25 per cent, while the LDP’s popularity fell from 19 per cent to 17 per cent. Although one would expect the opposition to benefit in light of the planned austerity measures, this has not been the case; however unpopular a tax increase might be, 73 per cent of respondents still agree that the LDP-Komeito coalition should participate in policy deliberations with the government. It might seem obvious, but opposition for opposition’s sake is unlikely to return the LDP to power.

But with Tanigaki at the helm, the LDP’s current strategy of obstruction may be the best the party can hope for. Tanigaki’s term as LDP president expires in September (while Noda can delay calling an election until August next year). So failure to force an early election may seriously undermine Tanigaki’s prospects for re-election as party president, particularly as the current LDP secretary-general, Nobuteru Ishihara, has expressed interest in replacing Tanigaki.

Failure to match Noda’s policy agenda with sensible counter-proposals, added to the LDP’s refusal to debate the government’s key initiatives, may only further weaken the LDP’s electoral position at a time when smaller opposition parties are merging and forging new cooperative strategies in order to court the conservative vote. The People’s New Party and Stand Up Japan! have agreed to launch a new political party in March with Tokyo’s governor, Shintaro Ishihara. And Your Party, a centre-right party made up of former LDP members, also announced that it will be cooperating with Osaka’s increasingly popular mayor, Toru Hashimoto, and his party (Osaka Restoration Association) in the next election.

Still, a much larger problem is that for the LDP to only engage in policy-based discussions once in power belies the opposition’s role in a parliamentary system. It also offers little hope for the majority of Japan’s independent voters that the current LDP would govern any differently from the LDP that lost in the general election of 2009.

Kevin Placek is a recent graduate of the University of Melbourne, where he completed a Master of International Relations specialising in Japanese prime-ministerial politics.