In Australia the government has commissioned a White Paper which promises a major and comprehensive review of economic and strategic change in Asia and its implications and the opportunities it opens up for Australia. This interest, and the need to think about how best to manage the Asian century, is not unique to Australia.

The shifts in the structure of global economic power that are under way are bigger shifts in the locus of global output than those recorded after the industrial revolution, and they are taking place in much shorter timeframes. These are changes of type not just of degree.

When announcing the Australian White Paper, Australia’s Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, observed that ‘On the eve of Australia’s long run of economic growth, before our two decades of reform-driven prosperity, [Australia’s] and China’s were economies of roughly comparable size in market exchange rate terms. Now, remember Australia’s been growing for twenty years since and yet on the same basis China’s economy is today close to four and half times bigger than ours. In twenty years, China and India have grown so fast they’ve almost tripled their share of the global economy — and increased their absolute economic size almost nine-fold. Just two countries, which have grown from less than a tenth of the global economy to almost a fifth, in just two decades — and which, over the next two decades, are projected to grow from a fifth to a third. This incredible economic growth in our region is driving economic and strategic change in our world too’.

Comprehending the scale and importance of what is going on in Asia, both economically and politically, and its already palpable impact on our region and on the structure of world economic and political power is no easy task.

Over the coming months around forty distinguished Asian and Australian analysts will comment through East Asia Forum on different dimensions of the challenge of the Asian century. This series provides a chance to engage leading regional thinkers in the assessment of the issues we face. It will be helpful to Australia as it tries to understand the impact of these changes on its future and hopefully it will be helpful also to our partners in the region.

We begin the series this week with Hugh White’s reflections on the implications of Asia’s rising economic power for the political-security environment. White has catalysed thinking on this question over the past few years, arguing that America and its friends and allies in Asia confront a new strategic choice. Will America, he has asked, agree to negotiate a new order with China that gives Beijing a bigger role and allows it to exercise more influence than it has for a long time? Or will it refuse to negotiate, and insist on preserving the old US-led order unchanged? In Washington last week, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, appeared to accept America’s role in Asia so long as America accepts China’s role. The implications of how this choice is made will shape Asian political and security affairs for decades.

‘We need to recognise and acknowledge that the economic shift to Asia does indeed have profound implications for the balance of strategic power as well’ White argues. ‘China is now strong enough to contest America’s leadership in Asia, and is plainly doing so. That means that the old days of uncontested American primacy, and the Asian order that has been built on this foundation, are already history. Our choices are about what kind of order we would like to see in its place’.

The commencement of our Asia century series is also the occasion on which to announce the first three inaugural East Asia Forum Fellows: Professor Yiping Huang, of Peking, the ANU and Barclays, Hong Kong; Mr Sourabh Gupta, of Samuels International Associates Inc., Washington; and Professor Hugh White, of the Australian National University, Canberra.

EAF Fellows are honoured for their distinguished contribution to the discussion of Asian affairs. Professor Huang has been a leader in the discussion of developments in the Chinese economy and economic policy and his analysis on EAF and elsewhere is widely acknowledged to be at the cutting edge of commentary on Chinese economic affairs. Mr Gupta has been an insightful contributor to discussion of Indian, South Asian affairs as well as contributions on Asia Pacific affairs, and the implications of India’s economic rise and its strategic situation in Asia. Professor White has been at the forefront of thinking about the impact of the rise of Chinese and Asian economic power on political and security relations with the United States and the political and security order in Asia and the Pacific. His controversial but path-breaking analysis, including on EAF over the past few years to which he adds in this week’s feature, has stimulated global debate about strategies for managing the political changes taking place in Asia and the Pacific. Mr Gupta and Professor Huang will also contribute to the Asia century series in coming weeks.

Peter Drysdale is Editor of the East Asia Forum.