The latter won 152 seats out of a possible 300, while the DUP secured 127 seats and the United Progressive Party (UPP) won 13. The Saenuri Party’s victory came despite the current conservative administration, led by Lee Myung-bak, having a very low approval rating (at around 30 per cent) and the tactical alignment between the DUP and the UPP.

Several factors made the conservative party’s victory possible. First, the Saenuri Party undertook a massive makeover under the leadership of Park Geun-hye, who is the most likely presidential candidate from the conservative party and the daughter of General Park Chung-hee (ruler of South Korea between 1961 and 1979). She proved to be extremely successful in mobilising conservative voters. Second, even at the risk of diluting its conservative identity, the Saenuri Party not only distanced itself from the Lee administration, but also shifted its policy focus to issues such as social welfare. This strategy appears to have worked and attracted some swing voters who would otherwise have voted for the DUP or the UPP. And the last — and perhaps most important — factor was the opposition parties’ inability and failure to meet the expectations of their own supporters and dissatisfied swing voters. The opposition centred its campaign strategy on criticising the Lee administration, but failed to offer its own vision for the future with a clear set of policies.

The April elections showed continuity as well as change in South Korean politics. Voters continued to desire new faces in the national assembly, as in the past several elections around 30 per cent of representatives in the national assembly were first-time representatives, and the trend continued this year. Some notable new faces include Cho Myung-chul (a North Korean defector), Jasmine Lee (a naturalised Korean citizen) and Jun Soon-oak (the sister of a deceased civil rights activist). Social media also continued to be an important means by which to spread political messages and garner support, as a podcast-based broadcasting program, Nakkomsu, illustrates. Social media has become indispensable for all parties and candidates in South Korea.

Weakening regionalism and the increased political significance of young voters both emerged as important new trends. The liberal parties collectively received 35 per cent of the vote in the traditionally conservative Pusan-Kyungnam region. Lee Jung-hyun, a conservative candidate, received 40 per cent of the vote in a strongly pro-liberal Gwangju area, while a liberal candidate, Kim Bu-gyum, also received 40 per cent of the vote in a strongly pro-conservative Daegu district. Although neither of these two candidates won a seat, the results showed weakening regionalism in South Korean politics, an encouraging trend that increases the pool of independent voters. In addition, younger generations have become a greater political force in South Korean politics. The DUP even allocated a specific quota of its party list representatives for candidates in their 20s and 30s, two of whom made it into the national assembly. Overall, five candidates in their 20s and 30s were elected.

But despite this latest victory, the conservative party has much to worry about in the upcoming presidential election. Although it took a majority of seats in the national assembly, its share of the actual vote was less than the combined share of the two opposition parties. If the DUP and the UPP put forward a united candidate in the presidential election, the conservatives will face an uphill battle. So while Park Geun-hye can mobilise conservative voters, she may not be able to surpass the threshold required to be elected. The final outcome will depend on how the key political actors position themselves, as well as the parties’ performance between now and December.

So what do the results of the April 2012 national assembly elections mean for South Korea? In short, not much. This election was more about getting seats than substantive policies or issues. We will see more clear policy differences and debates during the presidential election campaign.

As for inter-Korean relations, much of what is currently going on is driven by North Korean domestic politics, which is beyond the control of great powers, let alone South Korea. If there is a political turnover in December and a liberal candidate wins the presidency, the South Korean government might show a more conciliatory attitude toward the North, with an emphasis on dialogue. But it is doubtful whether such an outcome would result in meaningful progress on inter-Korean relations, especially given new North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun’s need to continue to consolidate his power.

Yongwook Ryu is a research fellow at the Department of International Relations, the Australian National University.