Xanana Gusmão’s party, the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction or CNRT, is likely to form government with one or two coalition partners. Of the 21 parties that contested the poll, 17 now appear to have missed the cut-off threshold of 3 per cent, leaving four parties represented in the parliament.
The main surprise from the elections is that the governing party, the CNRT, has increased its 2007 vote from 24 to over 36.6 per cent. CNRT’s 36.6 per cent will translate into 30 seats in the 65-seat parliament. The closely aligned Frenti-Mudança party won two seats, so between them they form a majority or come very close to forming one. The Democratic Party was also expected to reach an agreement with the CNRT, with its further eight seats providing a strong and stable coalition.
The former governing party, Fretilin, will take 25 seats, most likely forming the opposition, After losing half its vote in the 2007 elections and showing no effective gains five years later, the real question for Fretilin is whether it will now reflect on its underwhelming electoral results.
Fretilin members are tight-knit and defensive, but it is now possible that Fretilin Secretary General Mari Alkatiri will reconsider his wishes to remain as party leader. Some Fretilin members may also be considering a future for the party without Alkatiri.
The July 2012 elections were run by Timor-Leste’s Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE), overseen by the National Electoral Commission (CNE), with limited support from the UN. The elections were organised smoothly, if not flawlessly, and the conduct of the elections was marred only by minor technical issues.
The polls were well attended. Preliminary data indicates that 73 per cent of registered voters visited a polling station last Saturday, though estimates that take into account anomalies in the registration system indicate that the real voter turn-out rate exceeded 80 per cent.
As they have done in the past, voters began queuing outside the country’s 850 polling stations before dawn, started voting at 7 am and had largely completed the process by 11 am. The voting count, too, was largely quick and untroubled.
Reports from Timor-Leste’s 2012 parliamentary elections suggest that voters have again calibrated their political allegiances in ways that reflect a clear consideration of political interest. The last five years have seen the resolution of a number of Timor-Leste’s immediate problems along with growth in health care and education, and some significant steps toward infrastructure development. These developments appear to have been well received by voters.
As the excitement and surprise at the results of the election begin to settle, decisions will be made about the formation of the next government and the appointment of ministers. The new CNRT government will also need to tackle a series of significant problems that were left unresolved by the outgoing government.
Corruption is the first of these issues, which has become more acute in recent years, especially in relation to non-transparent letting of major government contracts. The fact that four ministers are currently under investigation illustrates the extent of the problem.
The next major issue is the sustainable use of Timor-Leste’s US$11 billion petroleum fund, the interest from which runs the government and, by extension, most of the economy. The CNRT has been using capital from the petroleum fund saying it urgently needs to build infrastructure, but at the current rate of depletion Timor-Leste will be out of money in a little over a decade.
The country’s natural resources will continue to play an important role in domestic politics, as the incoming government will need to resolve its outstanding dispute with Woodside Petroleum over the development of the Greater Sunrise natural gas field in the Timor Sea. Once an agreement is signed, the project will pump several billion dollars more into the petroleum fund. So far, both parties’ intransigence over the location of a liquefied natural gas processing plant has stopped the project proceeding, auguring poorly for its future.
Finally, while there has been much development in Timor-Leste since independence, particularly in the past five years, little has changed for many people outside Dili. Increasing rural development is critical if the majority of Timor-Leste’s people are to be lifted out of grinding poverty.
The incoming government has a clear set of tasks to accomplish in the next five years. Without addressing issues of corruption, natural resources and poverty, the current stability that Timor-Leste has begun to enjoy may not last. A corrupt government that does not look after the needs of its people is a recipe for disaster.
Professor Damien Kingsbury is Director at the Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights, Deakin University.