For farmers and the agricultural cooperative organisation (JA), the TPP is the key issue. JA has made opposition to the TPP a condition of its backing candidates and parties in the election. The National Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives (JA-Zenchu) has said that it will ‘support candidates and parties that have made clear their opposition to the TPP negotiations’.

Prime Minister Noda stands at the opposite end of the spectrum. He originally stipulated that Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) endorsement was conditional on candidates following the party line on the TPP and consumption tax. Prospective DPJ candidates were required to sign an application for endorsement that contained a pledge to support party policies, although the application did not actually mention the TPP.

According to JA, Noda capitulated to pressure from Japan’s business community and the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo), the DPJ’s biggest support group. Rengo will not recommend candidates who oppose the TPP.

The DPJ’s formal position on the TPP, which was finally revealed in its election manifesto, however, does not clearly announce a policy of participating in the TPP negotiations, instead stating that the party will simultaneously advance the TPP, the Japan–China–South Korea FTA and the ASEAN-based Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. But, in a major concession to the ‘cautious faction’ of the party, this commitment is qualified by the addition of the words ‘and the government will decide’. This means that any DPJ administration will reserve the right to make a political decision at the time — in short, a continuation of the status quo. Given the divisions in the party and the current cabinet, there were concerns that the party would be thrown into turmoil if it clearly set forth a policy of participating in the TPP negotiations.

The party predicted to lead the next administration — the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) — is opposed to joining the TPP negotiations as long as they are premised on tariff abolition without exceptions. However, LDP leader Shinzo Abe has confidently claimed that the ‘LDP has sufficient negotiating power to break through tariff abolition without exceptions’, hinting at the possibility of participating in the negotiations once he comes to power. The LDP has also set other conditions for participating in the TPP negotiations.

In fact, the LDP is as divided on the TPP as the DPJ. Some LDP members are strong TPP advocates, while agriculture-affiliated Diet members are firmly opposed. The LDP laid down tough conditions for participating because the anti-TPP group worked together with non-committal members to raise the various problems associated with the TPP.

The LDP’s position on the TPP shows that it has not changed its long-standing agricultural trade policy. It wants FTAs with exceptions for agriculture. This is exactly the same as the DPJ’s position (in negotiations with Australia on an FTA, for example). In short, there is little light between the DPJ’s and LDP’s policies. If either of these parties leads a post-election coalition government, no immediate change can be expected in Japan’s position on the TPP — that of a cautious bystander.

An overview of all parties’ positions on the TPP reveals the full spectrum of views. While a small minority is in favour, most are opposed:

DPJ	Will promote the TPP with the government making the final decision
LDP	Opposed to abolishing all tariffs without exceptions
People’s Life First	Opposed because it harms the national interest
Kōmeitō	Firmly against making a rash decision to participate in the negotiations
Your Party	Participate in the TPP negotiations and aggressively open up the country
JCP	Absolutely opposed
Japan Restoration Party	Participate in the TPP negotiations but oppose if it harms the national interest
Social Democratic Party	Firmly opposed to participating in a TPP that destroys people’s lives
People’s New Party	Participate in the negotiations, but respond cautiously based on the national interest
Green Wind Party	Opposed
New Party Daichi	Absolutely opposed
Anti-TPP — Nuclear-Free Party	Opposed to participating in the negotiations
New Renaissance Party	Consider cautiously, on the premise of disclosing sufficient information and protecting the national interest
New Party Nippon	Opposed because the TPP will ruin the country
Tomorrow Party of Japan	Opposed to participating in the TPP negotiations

 

Among the smaller parties, only Your Party is categorically in favour, while the Japan Restoration Party (JRP) has adopted a slightly more qualified position, having joined forces with the Sunrise Party, which was cautious about the matter. Approximately 70 per cent of the JRP’s candidates reputedly support the TPP.

The former leader of the DPJ group ‘cautious’ about the TPP, Yamada Masahiko, used his anti-TPP stance as the main organising principle for his new party, in which he teamed up with Kamei Shizuka, the anti-postal privatisation former leader of the People’s New Party. The new mini-party was called the Anti-TPP, Anti-Nuclear Power, Consumption Tax Hike Freeze Realisation Party, or Anti-TPP for short. It later joined forces with Nagoya City mayor Takashi Kawamura’s Tax Cut Japan to form the Party to Achieve Tax Cuts, Oppose the TPP and Abandon Nuclear Power Plants (the Nuclear-Free Party). Kawamura has said that he is cautious about the TPP.

Ozawa’s People’s Life First Party, which is firmly opposed to the TPP, has now made a decision to dissolve itself and merge with the new Tomorrow Party of Japan. It has been joined by the Nuclear-Free Party and some in the Green Wind Party. These parties share an anti-TPP position, and stand to gain more seats united than as mini-parties competing against each other for votes.

The TPP is unlikely to be the defining issue for many voters. According to NHK News 7 on 26 November, 31 per cent of voters are in favour of Japan participating in the TPP, 16 per cent are against and 44 per cent do not hold a strong view either way. Voters rate other issues as far more important, including the economy, social security and nuclear power.

Whether parties will stick to their stated positions in post-election coalition bargaining and in government is another question. It is possible that election manifestos will be dishonoured, following the example set by the DPJ after the last election. Finally, Diet politicians are renowned for their poor policy discipline. Regardless of official party standpoints, candidates will push their own opinions in their electorates and in party policy-making contexts.

Aurelia George Mulgan is Professor at the University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.