India’s population in 2050: extreme projections demand extreme actions
Published: 05 April 2013 Reading Time: 1 mins
In Brief
In 2050 India’s population is projected to be 1.69 billion — China’s will be 1.31 billion.
India has experienced extraordinary population growth: between 2001 and 2011 India added 181 million people to the world, slightly less than the entire population of Brazil.
Mr. Goswami’s message is one that deserves to be highlighted. As an observer of the Indian scene for almost 50 years (beginning when its population was around 400 million), population growth must be the country’s paramount existential challenge. Moreover, it seems that there are only two options for stabilizing the population in the near term: an Indian version of the one-child policy or mass deaths due to starvation, disease, or conflict.
The 1 child policy will result in a large dependant senior population like that of Europe and China. Graying nations are never good: encouraging immigration is the way to go.
That’s a weird suggestion! Immigration isn’t at the whim and fancy of India.
China’s 1-child policy, despite the issues of human rights it raises, has been beneficial. And European countries have a good lifestyle, despite their being in economic depression for a while.It’s a crisis situation in India, that needs a solution. The current government is frustratingly unable to grapple with the issue.
So you want the poorest people in that country to pack up an move their entire family to another country? With no education and no money, they’ll just be poor somewhere else, but maybe there’s a chance they won’t starve to death. So okay I see your point a little.
You should control india’s population otherwise it will be totally mess .shortage of food,water will occur. Many will remain jobless .many children will not get proper education .more number of poor will be their and it will get a bad impression on people who are visiting India
This cannot be done just by one person, it is a teamwork where mentality of people has to be changed, by making them literate. Lack of education leads to such problems, I believe.
India’s version of one-child policy would be greatly preferred
Well the developed world , especially the West , has to refuse immigration from India until they do something about excessive population growth .
This is the only thing that will make the Indian government react , and Indians understand that they cannot go on in the way they are , often just for the sake of religion.
The worlds resources are finite , and the pollution produced by countries like India is unacceptable today . Also the fact that the pollution from their rivers goes into the Indian Ocean and effects many countries in the world has to stop .
India is a peculiar democratic country. There is no uniform rule here for the whole citizen. No. of marriages certainly be one of the indicators for population growth. But the number of marriages permitted officially is different for different communities. Single marriage system is a rule for one community but other communities are permitted many marriages for the sake of religion. How it can be solved? So, There is a big question mark regarding population control here.
Dr. Ashutosh Das, how do you explain the population explosion in Bihar, which has a very small Muslim population? While Muslims(your “other communities”) are permitted four wives for religious reasons, the reality is that they mostly have single spouses. If every Muslim adult male married four women, where do the women come from, given that the male:female ratio among Muslims is roughly 1.2:1? Population growth among Hindu communities in UP, Bihar, MP, etc., are at par with Muslims in the same areas, so how would you explain that?
Population growth in India is a result of poverty, functional illiteracy(not the Indian standard of knowing how to write your name) and ignorance spurred on by religious propaganda from both Muslim and Hindu activist groups. Indian Christians and other minorities are falling below replacement birth rates, and Hindus in the south are not far behind. The main problem appears to be with Hindus and Muslims in the north, which is where religious fervor is highest.
Furthermore, your “one community” includes Hindus, Christians, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis, Jews and tribals. You need to take off your religion blinders, which are a huge part of the problems of India today.
Whether you like it or not, whether you force your opinion on others or not, the FACT remains Muslim TFR is at least .5 or more higher in all states, including most literate state of Kerala. Govt of India last published religion based TFR data on 2001 census.
It would be nice to refer to that data, before muzzling anyone for their free speech.
The issue in India needs to start from the top down, who do people look up to? religious leaders, politicians, elders, etc. These leaders need to be educated to speak out to not just the masses but to all and everyone that it is the duty of all mankind, not just Indians, to limit population growth, families should be encouraged to have just two children. As people become more educated they are known to have less children, which benefits all mankind in the long term.
You cannot blame any one religious group for India’s population growth. Empowering women, educating girls and boys and school and college is also the key, telling them that when you have children you MUST feed and provide for them, that having 1 or 2 should be the goal, giving your children a good education that involves religious tolerance too.
Patel
Immigration is not solution. No country can take so many illiterate people. So forget about this.
ONE CHILD POLICY is the only solution for India. There is no other solution. All others are sweet talks.
ONE CHILD POLICY has to be for all Indians. No other way.
We all have to remember that we are penalizing our children & grand children for having lower standard of living if we do not adopt ONE CHILD POLICY today. Can we be that selfish today? If we do not go for ONE CHILD POLICY today, history will not pardon us.
No country can take so many people whether they are illiterate or literate. If you look at the USA, the population is now 300 million people , people fleeing from Central and South America due to the USA economic and drug war policies, plus American employers importing legal and illegal workers in this country. America has now mega-size regional municipal areas because of this population growth. You wonder how crowded the USA will be if the population becomes 600 million?
True. Exploding Indian population can not be accommodated any where. By not controlling population, India is not only penalizing Indian only but the world at large. We simply can not feed so many mouths.
Illiterate politicians since Indian independence are responsible for this. God only knows where country shall go after 5,10,20 years.
Canada has about 35 million people and 97per cent of its population live within 10 miles of the USA/Canadian so it could be possible to spread the Indian population to the rest of empty Canadian land. The problem is that then you have developed rail, roads, airports and all other things like utilities, police and fire services, hospitals and that will take time to develop those things and trained the necessary workers to provide the services.
Another problem would be trying to convince the Indian population to settle in those areas hundreds of miles away from the USA/Canadian border. Who would want to live in the Yukon, the Rocky Mountains, the Hudson Bay area, out in the middle of the prairie in Alberta, or near the Artic Circle?
I am from Canada, and yes, the environment gets less friendly the further north you go. I live in the prairie areas, and the winters can be quite cold. It is a lovely place, though, once you get used to the cold.
But the weather is less the issue. The truth is, sending massive numbers of illiterate Indians to empty Canadian wilderness will not happen simply because the Canadian government is very, very particular with whom they will allow into the country.
The amount of paperwork alone is daunting and if a person has no means of supporting himself when he arrives (a trade, specialized skills in demand) or family members here in Canada that pledge to support him so he is not a drain on the system, he will not get in.
I fear the government of India will need to face this problem head-on, and hopefully soon. It’s all good and well to worry about human rights concerns when restricting the number of births, but nature doesn’t give a single penny for any of that, and her solutions of starvation, pestilence, and disease are unspeakably cruel.
I would rather live with the limitation of having a certain number of children, than starving to death or die of disease, spread by unsanitary conditions that will arise if India proliferates to an unthinkable 500 people per square kilometre.
Let us hope Indian officials with some sense react to this problem soon.
V G Vachani you are right ..one child policy is only the solution.
How can you link immigration with Indian government? Legal immigration happens because host countries need skilled people or on humanitarian grounds. Your comments about linking the two do not make sense.
This article seems to be inaccurate. If recent trends are taken into consideration.India’s population should stabilize by 2035-2040 as the TFR will fall below 2.1 replacement level well before then. It is 2.5 right now. Also India’s population right now is 1.22 billion. It’s unlikely that it will increase by 470 million in just 37 years especially as TFR and population growth rates decline. Also how can China’s population be only 1.31 billion considering it is already 1.35 billion?
The source of the data for projected population in 2050 is taken from one of the most reliable organizations related to the area: Population Reference Bureau from its 2011 study. As per Population Reference Bureau, in 2050, likely population of India would be 1.692 billion and China 1.31 billion. The website, if it can be added here, is: http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011population-data-sheet_eng.pdf
Moreover, TFR falling below 2.1 does not immediately ensure a stabilizing or decreasing population, as China has been having less than 2.1 TFR for more than two decades now. China’s population growth has slowed down, but it has not yet stabilized or started declining in absolute terms. It depends on reproductive age group demography, which tends to be/will be extremely high in India until 2050 or even beyond. Moreover, what is not noted in the article, but is of interest, is that population of the under 15 years age-group in India is 410 million against 223 million in China against that of 199 million in entire developed world. This can help one understand the basis of the 2050 population forecasts.
The trends can change quickly … as more and more people become modern and addicted to modern gadgets – they will have smaller families. inflation will play a big role too ..I think in worst case scenario the population will stabilize in 2050
One possibility is to bring in borders. Yes let’s amend the constitution. Why should other Indian states suffer because UP,Bihar, Rajasthan, MP and the like have poor leadership. The priority of these of these states should be the education of girls, getting women into the workforce, labour reform(manufacturing/labour intensive jobs needed), and urbanization. Of course the same goes for all states, but these states should be doubling their efforts.
Surprisingly there are no efforts from government to overcome this problem of overpopulation. In decades of 80s, 90s we used to see campaigns on TV, wall paintings etc. to educate people. Any idea why that is not happening now?
Yes, I have wondered about the same too. Maybe, the one child policy should not be forced on people, but campaigns are absolutely legitimate and they work. I remember in Shimla, there were writings on the wall asking people not to dirty the streets and the streets were way cleaner than any other hill station I have seen. Probably someone brainwashed the Indian government about this demographic dividend. But sadly our politicians are not competent to make use of the demographic dividend.
It is clear since 1977 election. Any one talk of one child, he is against human. This will lead to loss of power. Is there a single politician in India who is ready to loose the power. None…whatsoever…..It seems talking of population control has become now taboo. All the politicians are in business of schools, colleges, hospitals where more population can bring more profit. Will they talk of reducing population. Only a person of vision of 40-50 years for India can talk of population stabilization.
A portion of India’s demographic dividend will be exported to the rest of the world as well, it seems. That’s what the 21st century is like. Your problems are my problems, and my problems are your problems too. But man oh man… India’s population growth is a big f****** problem.
If the Govt is unable to achieve a near 1 child policy like China, in less than the next 15 years we will witness a crisis of unthinkable bounds. There will be civil wars in many states. Grabbing money, food, housing and land and any other assets by the have-nots from the haves will flourish.
Very harsh words but such is the plight of the hungry. Lawlessness has already commenced.
I would not say in next 15 years. I will say immediately. It shall take minimum 40 years to stabilize population with strict ONE CHILD POLICY.
This is the best comment here. Castesism, communalism and communism is a phenomenon of Hindi belt only in India. One day will come that there will be 400 MPs from Hindi belt out of 543 in India.
The whole governing system is flawed and needs to be overhauled.
For one, this article needs to be read by more people
I am not an expert on this subject, but I am wondering whether the widespread practice of female fetocide will have any effect in India’s population growth. By logical conclusion, although it may sound cruel to say but actually this may reduce India’s population growth. As in many states a substantial number of male population will never marry so they will not be able to reproduce. Of course such massive numbers of unmarried male population will also make our society unstable, but that’s another matter.
It is the orthodox Malthusian discourse when we start a balance sheet of food supply and mouths to feed. The consumption pattern across the world clearly tells where the threat to food supply and nature’s resources comes from.
What is really required today is to redefine the orthodox concept of development – seen as mere economic growth. Everything, including the population problem, will fall in place if we follow Amartya Sen’s capability theory of development or the human development approach as place people at the center of development, in place of economics or GDP growth.
It is time to shed the myth of perpetual economic growth.
This article did not take climate change into account. With 1 degree of global climate increase, there would be approx 15% reduction in grain output. It is expected that it will be 3 – 5 degrees global temparture rise by 2100 ( business as usual scenario by IPCC). Also, there will here diction ground water and less water in rivers due to glaciers melting in the long run, though there would be floods in short-term. Because of jet streem pattern change, indian monsoon may change. With all these changes coming in this century, can India survive this century?
I think adopting one-child policy is NOT a great step in controlling population. What is very important to be noticed is that 76% of the population lives in less than $2 per day, which means couples are irresponsibly having children irrespective of the education, food and life they can provide for them. I think making sure they are not abusing their human rights to start a family (with any number of children) by asking for an explanation for such irresponsible behavior would be important for a country like India. One-child policy will be very cruel to the ones who have been responsible all through their life.
So what will be the ultimate solution to these problems? I think India is not alone in population problems. Many Southeast Asian countries are also struggling with how to resolve the ever increasing population and poverty in their countries.
The trends sometimes hurt other countries more. Even the policies in the country will change as time passes.
This argument is not based on sound analysis. Do you realize that India is only second to Canada in the amount of natural arid land in the world? India has not industrialized farming. Let’s put that into perspective; industrial scale farming in the west allows western countries to produce four times their population requirements on average. Indian farming, which is still medieval in practice, is still able to produce three times population requirements. So whats the problem? 65 per cent of that food cannot be stored and is allowed to waste. 25 per cent is consumed in India, while 10 per cent is still exported. India is the worlds largest meat exporter This is despite not having industrial farming or proper storing methods. The space theory does not make sense. If every person on earth was to be given 1000 sq meters they would all still fit in a country the size of Texas.
I think you mean 1000sqft and not 1000 sq meters.
Some more realistic calculations:
The total land surface area of Earth is about 57,308,738 square miles, of which about 33% is desert and about 24% is mountainous. Subtracting this uninhabitable 57% (32,665,981 mi2) from the total land area leaves 24,642,757 square miles or 15.77 billion acres of habitable land.
Divide this figure by the current human population of 6.8 billion (that’s 6,800 million people) and you get 2.3 acres (just under one hectare) per person. If all the habitable land on Earth were equally distributed among all human beings present on the planet, this is the per capita share of good land per person. Again, however, we have not allowed for any amenities such as highways, schools, hospitals, shopping malls, stadiums, agricultural fields, rivers, lakes, reservoirs, parks, golf courses, etc. Even so, could you live on 2.3 acres?
Efforts have been made to estimate the amount of land needed to sustain an average individual human. A person living the lifestyle of an average American requires almost 24 acres, ten times the world per capita share.
Well said Dr Seb,
I persionally do feel that the key to population is education, empowerment, politicians, financial incentives from governments, and local ground level empowerment that lots of charities in India and around the World are doing. I have two children, that’s enough for me, I have four grandchildren, that’s more than enough for me.
The best way to keep the population explosion in control is provide incentives for those couples (parents) who limit themselves to two children possessing one girl child compulsory and come from poor financial background irrespective of caste, creed, religion or race or culture. These special groups should be identified as Most Important Groups (MIGs) and they will provide with huge amount of subsidies viz., free education, free hi-tech healthcare, free insurance, free accommodation, free transportation, free food, free agril.land and other agril. and non-agricultural subsidies etc till they were elevated to above poverty line. These things will be provided to the family upto 20 years starting from the first birth of child up to 20 years. This will not only avoid discrimination on female children but also it provides an opportunity for the masses and classes think about themselves.
Population control is the crying need of the hour
(a) Awareness campaigns do work – the govt must try them in high fertility states
(b) the government can try to stop unwanted births first (through making family planning solutions available)
otherwise a disaster of unprecedented proportions awaits us.
Sujay Rao Mandavilli
On population front in India, I have concluded that talking about demographic dividend is gone. We are already late. Now it is time to take proactive actions. But who shall do it? Political leaders? Illiterate Indian people? Or some God from the sky?
I think people who believe that immediate actions are needed to stabilize population should be elected as leader. Do we have any one in this line? No.
Minimum thing we can do as individual is to spread awareness of population stabilization and improving living standard. Next, talk to law maker and pursued them to take up this matter in parliament and make necessary laws.
You should mention where the demographic growth is happening in South Asia.
The vast majority of growth in focused in Pakistan and Northern India, while Southern India, Maldives and Sri Lanka have near-sub-replacement fertility rates.
One Child Policy isn’t so good because in China, there are about 15 million orphans who were born after their families already had a child. The same will happen in India unless doctors sterilize the woman after she gives birth. There will then be more murders of daughters because in the Indian culture, having a son is more important than having a daughter.
India has reached the “perfect storm” environment for an accelerated growth rate. Enough wealth to stop a lot of people from dying and starving, but not enough to educate and create “middle class” desires. Want to control population growth. Educate and empower women. As for the 1 child policy. Careful what you wish for. This one will sneak up an bite you.
All educated people should understand ‘what is happening to India’s population and what it’s implications will be for the future: unemployment problems, high level competition, migration to other countries,lack of food production etc.Therefore we should have controlled population growth in our nation.We should enforce 2 child policy for every couple. People should understand that population growth is only to the advantage of elected representatives, so they always support population growth.
The demographic issues surrounding fertility rate in India is widely overlooked but is in fact quite serious. The majority of states containing South Indians are socially progressive with negative fertility rates (in-line with Sri Lanka) whereas most states containing North Indians are socially held-back with positive fertility rates, with Muslims universally having strong fertility rates over that those of Hindus and Buddhists (in-line with Pakistan and Bangladesh I should add).
We have already seen from the horrors happening in Europe what a unmanaged population boom can do to a country, with French Muslims making up majorities of schools and jails, the top seven Belgian baby boys’ names recently were Mohamed, Adam, Rayan, Ayoub, Mehdi, Amine and Hamza. and “British Asians” now practically referring to Muslims only.
Another solution would be the Balkanization of the continent, so that it has the ability to restrict freedom-of-movement between the richer and poorer states. This would allow certain states to prosper and consequently subsidize the poorer states when able.
Immigration is not the answer, it is a band-aid solution. Population growth at the rate India is going is unsustainable long term. If everything remains the same a day will come where people will eat the last leaf off the last tree to survive, drink the last cup of water from the last lake . India Gandhi had forced sterilization in the 50’s she could see the writing on the wall. Of course, this sort of thing does not go over well. Create incentives for sterilization, make contraceptives readily available . Secondly, get all the children educated. Higher educated populations, results in a decrease in population. Common sense policy if person cannot provide, food , shelter, medical , or school for a child then don’t have any, it is
The article “India’s population in 2050: extreme projections demand extreme actions” raises important concerns about the country’s future population growth.
The article reports that India’s population is projected to reach 1.69 billion by 2050, up from 1.3 billion in 2013. This would make India the most populous country in the world, surpassing China.
The article also notes that India’s population growth is putting a strain on the country’s resources, such as food and water. It is also leading to environmental problems, such as deforestation and pollution.
The article concludes by calling for “extreme actions” to be taken to address India’s population growth. These actions could include providing access to family planning services, educating people about the importance of family planning, and creating incentives for people to have smaller families.
I agree with the article that India’s population growth is a serious problem that needs to be addressed. I hope that the government will take the necessary steps to reduce the country’s population growth and to ensure a sustainable future for India.
In addition to the article, you may also want to refer to the Exam Notes article on population explosion. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the issue, including its causes, consequences, and solutions.
https://www.allexamnotes.com/2017/02/population-explosion-india/
The Exam Notes article also includes a number of resources that you may find helpful, such as statistics on population growth, government policies on population control, and organizations that are working to address the issue of population explosion.