The ruling Indian National Congress has virtually accepted defeat with vice president Rahul Gandhi already focussing on the 2019 elections. This means that the opposition BJP and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi should shift their focus from the Congress to working out a strategy to meet the challenges posed by the rapidly emerging AAP. The BJP needs to keep in mind that in 1977 the Janata Party was cobbled together in three weeks and went on to rout the Congress Party. The BJP must now counter the electorate’s growing infatuation with the AAP.
The BJP should not assume that the AAP’s appeal could not spread beyond the middle-class-dominated Delhi. The electronic media now has the power to influence voters in remote India, and blur distinctions between rural and urban voters’ behaviour. The image of an AAP minister visiting a night shelter and the news of power tariffs being reduced by 50 per cent travelled countrywide, leaving a deep impression on voters’ minds.
The BJP must also make the effort to occupy centre-stage in the national media. And the BJP cannot secure a strong presence in the media simply by depending on its spokespersons that work without a consistent script. Today, the BJP needs a ‘book of ideas’ that allow the spokespersons to speak in a cogent, forward-looking manner.
The party has to quickly change its current twin strategy of Congress Party-bashing and showcasing the success of the Gujarat state. The former is now becoming a bit redundant. Astute observers, like Vinod Mehta, do not give the Congress Party more than a double-digit number of seats in the next Lok Sabha. To go beyond Gujarat’s success, the BJP has to demonstrate that it has a vision for the country — one that will inspire voters, especially young ones, and attract them to the party. This was done successfully in all three states where the BJP was victorious in the recently concluded assembly elections.
Such a vision could prove to be the urgently needed ‘book of ideas and issues’ that the BJP has lacked so far. Party cadre and spokespersons can use this ‘book’ to talk about a development agenda for the electorate. It will also allow the party to make a far better impression on the national media. The national media has already started to demand that Modi spell out how he sees India in the coming years.
This demand will only get stronger. But it could be met by producing an inspiring and well-articulated vision that influences, even dominates, public discourse in the run-up to the elections.
The BJP could enhance its credentials for participatory democracy by putting forward the ‘vision document’ as a public document.
This will energise the campaign beyond rhetoric, and reduce the distance between the BJP political brass and the common voter. If the BJP publicly discusses the ‘vision document’ there will be a better chance for the party to reclaim the attention it has ceded to the AAP, which hammers away its 17-point agenda to great effect.
Today, the people demand more specific plans and measures — not vague assurances. So, the BJP’s vision will have to be backed up with detailed targets and timeliness to show that the BJP is intellectually equipped to take the country forward. To shy away from targets and timeliness would allow the AAP to completely take over the policy space for inclusive growth.
The BJP should unequivocally make the case for market-based, private sector-led, sustainable and inclusive growth. It should detail measures for fighting corruption and crony capitalism. It is important for it to publicly state how an efficiently regulated private sector, when working together with an effective government, can deliver the highest rates of inclusive and sustained growth. This will highlight the contrast with the AAP whose populist and statist policy prescriptions can result in a reversal of the reform process. For example, it would not be surprising if, after a Comptroller and Auditor General audit of distribution companies, the AAP moved to re-nationalise electricity distribution in Delhi to provide subsidised electricity. This would be disastrous for the country.
The BJP must clearly state its position on national issues to present a viable alternative to the Indian National Congress and, far more importantly, the AAP. Otherwise, the BJP and Modi risk losing credibility. Spokespersons and Lok Sabha candidates may also be reactive, making promises that seem inconsistent with the national interest.
The electorate is not yet sure of the direction Modi will take the country — it is time that he publicly articulates his vision and presents it for deeper and wider scrutiny.
Rajiv Kumar is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, India.
This article was first published here, in Mail Today.
The caption of the article reflects the voices of the people. It is true that after the emergence of AAP, the BJP faces an uphill task in retaining its core constituency (Urban Voters).
The Author’s arguments do underline the mood of the people across India except for one thoroughly unfounded observation that Congress party under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi has already conceded defeat and is focusing on 2019. Actually, it is a media creation and the media has been well managed by BJP. It is a well planned strategy of BJP to talk low of the Congress party. An independent observer will call it a mischievous game-plan of the main opposition party BJP and some regional parties, who wish to retain their Muslim minority vote bank at the expense of Congress party. Therefore they altogether wish to paint the Congress party black
The Indian public at large knows that Congress party has very strong resilience and invariably re-surfaces even after humiliating defeats. Also the beauty lies in the fact that Congress is credited with a trust-worthy Leadership of Gandhi family whereas in parties like BJP, there is a continuous crisis of leadership. As of today, Narendra Modi is their show-man. He has left the party way behind, which eventually will irk many of the senior leaders towards the run up to the Lok Sabha poll due May this year. It will be advantage for the Congress party.
BJP does have a very strong team of Spokespersons who are not only good orators but have mastery in rumor mongering. Once they made “The Hindu Diety Lord Ganesha” drink the milk! It took more than a year for the rural public to exactly know that it was a product of ever-mischief-making brains of the saffron (BJP) party.
Congress Spokespersons go by the book and the brief; which fully conforms to the code of conduct and ethics. They are cool and thus follow the perception that they are weak too. Yes, they too need to be aggressive to win some points so as to boost the morale of their cadre. After all, all is fair in love and war.
AAP has, as of today, no anti-incumbency factor. Their victory is fresh. If they continue their game plan of taking on the corruption and identify with the public voice, they will certainly tease the BJP in a big way, and, may cut into their votes, up to the extent that BJP’s tally may fall by 30 plus seats, decimating all their dreams of occupying the Delhi Throne.
Another excellent piece of analysis from Rajiv Kumar. To present itself as suggested in the third last paragraph, the BJP will also need to work to shed its communalist skin, as still evidenced in the communal riots in UP. I would like to hear from the author on how this might be done, so that the BJP can present itself as a modern, secular party. Or in doing so, will it destroy too much of its base?
Sandy Gordon
People understand well what AAP has done against corruption……..just lip service. and on the name of aam aadmi they started projecting celebrities in poltics just like other parties.
People understand AAP’s greed for power. Leave freebies (even congress provides lots of freebies) what else they have done in Delhi when they were in the power. They made biggest mockery of AAM ADMI when they were in power.
Several AAm Admi died on the streets of Delhi in chilly winters in their tenure. They failed to save even lives of these people. How they can be solution to problems of Indian Politics?