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The promise of a Jokowi presidency in Indonesia

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In Brief

Most would concede that the contest that saw the election of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) as Indonesia's next president was a tough test for democratic transition in Indonesia. The election campaign was certainly one with an edge to it — 'one of the dirtiest election campaigns in Indonesian history', as Marcus Mietzner has called it. There are still legal appeals to be heard, but the size of Jokowi's victory and the very public evidence on the count, make anything but confirmation of the result a most unlikely outcome.

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Jokowi’s opponent, the tough talking Prabowo Subianto, former son-in-law of ousted president Suharto, was advised by American consultants, previously mentors to Republican candidates on how to drown out opponents in smear campaigns. Prabowo’s electoral machine spread false rumours that Jokowi was a Singaporean Chinese and a Christian. Jokowi was pushed onto the defensive by the bite of these attacks among Indonesia’s devout Muslim community. But, though the contest tightened in the run to the wire, Jokowi emerged the clear winner.

What is clearer day by day is how remarkable a victory this was, not only for Jokowi but for Indonesian democracy and the entrenchment of its institutions.

It’s not just a question of the success of the process delivering the vote, as Thitinan Pongsudhirak has remarked. The efficiency with which an election of the scale of the Indonesian contest was run ought to be a matter of national pride and, in some respects, puts the conduct of elections in much older democracies to shame. The turnout was over 70 per cent and running the poll passed without significant incident.

It is also the way in with the contest has been managed and is being concluded, despite the heat in it, that distinguishes it as ‘pivotal to the fate of democracy and regionalism in Southeast Asia’, as Thitinan claims. ‘Indonesia has its fair share of scandals and intrigues, such as the conviction of the former head of the Constitutional Court, Akil Mochtar, for corruption’. But this election was free, fair and unmarred by violence. And, when it came to the end point, incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the candidates and the other key stakeholders all acted to preserve the dignity and integrity of the democratic state.

But what Jokowi’s election to the presidency offers Indonesia, its people and the region above all is the promise that politics is not the preserve of the elite — those with established power and privilege — to hold and to handle as if by some self-appointed divine right. And that is a promise that is of truly historic significance.

Promises, of course, may end in tears. And there’s no doubt that whether Jokowi succeeds in delivering on the promise of his presidency will depend greatly on how he is able to manage Indonesia’s economy.

The Indonesian economy has been doing quite well over recent years, with an average growth in real terms somewhat above 6 per cent annually. But the growth rate has slipped below 6 per cent this year and the World Bank and the IMF both forecast that it’s unlikely to recapture its lustre next year. Jokowi has taken up the challenge, saying on 21 July that he aims to push the growth rate above 7 per cent, to a rate that would double Indonesia’s income over the coming decade.

In our lead essay this week, Shiro Armstrong argues that this is not only possible but necessary to create jobs for the tens of millions joining the workforce each year. He explains that the recent slow growth comes at the tail end of the resource boom, although the effect of end of the boom was not felt immediately because of the easy money in global capital markets from quantitative easing in the United States. To keep inflation under control and avoid a balance of payments crisis, the fiscal and monetary authorities have been engineering a slowdown and demand-side consolidation. ‘That a slowdown was necessary when growth is below 6 per cent in an economy at Indonesia’s level of development — and with its young and growing population — points to major structural problems in the economy’, says Armstrong.

Dealing with these structural problems and lifting growth to its true potential between 7 and 10 per cent is the big challenge for the Jokowi presidency.

In a series on the Indonesian economy this week, Stephen Howes and Robin Davies argue that success with the economy will require a tighter fiscal focus on productive government expenditures, instead of wasteful spending on a range of subsidies and supports and, in particular, the phased retreat from fuel subsidies that account for a whopping 25 per cent of government expenditures.

Armstrong argues that there will need to be a significant supply-side effort to lift productivity by restructuring the economy. Compared to its neighbours, he notes, Indonesia largely remains outside regional production networks. Participation in global supply chains allows countries to specialise more efficiently and realise their comparative advantages, generating employment and importing technology, capital and know-how.

To do that Jokowi will need to quell protectionist and nationalist as well as vested interest influence on policy and encourage the country to embrace openness to trade, investment, people and ideas. And that’s where the promise might become a tad more difficult to deliver.

Peter Drysdale is Editor of the East Asia Forum.

One response to “The promise of a Jokowi presidency in Indonesia”

  1. It is important not to exaggerate the significance of Jokowi’s victory. The siren-calls of Jokowi’s lobby in Australia need to be treated with some scepticism. Jokowi’s main business partner, and an important financial backer,is Luhut Panjaitan, a retired lieutenant-general who was ambassador to Singapore and then minister for trade in Gus Dur’s cabinet. He is a typical product of the Soeharto era, a military officer who became a very wealthy businessman. In other words, he is very much a member of Indonesia’s political elite. Singapore is notorious as one of the richest pickings for an Indonesian ambassador. Let’s just say that Panjaitan is not suspected of having been the most honest appointee to that post.

    Panjaitan is on Jokowi’s transition team, and has just published a ghost-written article in the Strait Times. Also on the transition team as an adviser is retired general Hendropriyono, a former head of BIN, Indonesia’s main intelligence agency who has more than one skeleton in his cupboard.

    Jokowi is very much under Megawati’s influence. What he probably wants to do is to update and modernise Sukarnoism for the contemporary era. Australians should take Sukarnoism seriously. It will matter during Jokowi’s tenure, whatever compromises with it Jokowi makes.

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