While no Japanese prime minister has resigned because of an approval rating below 50 per cent, Abe undeniably now faces his first test of adversity. There are ebbs and flows in politics, and frequently when the tide turns, things never go back to what they were. Looking back, it may become clear that the turning point for Abe’s political future was approval of the right to exercise collective self-defence, leading to the loss of the Shiga Prefecture gubernatorial election.
If Abe is to maintain a firm grip on power — and deal firmly with internal party contenders, including Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba — his approval rating must rise.
Abe’s ‘brain’, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, had expected such a development. According to a source close to Suga, from the start he has envisioned a strategy of using foreign policy to help restore approval ratings that have soured because of national security issues, including collective self-defence.
Of particular focus is the return of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea during the 1970s and 1980s, an issue of extreme importance to the Japanese public. On 11 July at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan, Suga commented: ‘Resolving the abduction issue is the Abe Government’s highest priority. Since the launch of this Government, we are under the Prime Minister’s instructions to use every means available, and we have worked together as one’.
The key person linking Abe and North Korea is Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj. Abe is actively trying to leverage this strong personal relationship in order to make progress on the abduction issue. The two have met regularly since last September, with meetings even taking place at Abe’s private residence. Via Elbegdorj’s mediation, Abe has approached a key member of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s government. This has allowed not only for Shigeru and Sakie Yokota — parents of high-profile Japanese abduction victim Megumi Yokota — to meet Megumi’s daughter, Kim Eun-gyong, but also for the establishment of a North Korean special investigation committee on the abduction victims.
The Japanese public wants to know who among the 17 officially recognised abduction victims will return. While five were returned in 2002, North Korea claimed the other 12 were deceased or had never entered its territory. In early July the Nihon Keizai Shimbun referred to a ‘list of survivors’ of Japanese abductees in North Korea. This was not precisely true. Something similar to this was shown to the Japanese during intergovernmental negotiations but it apparently only included one or two names of officially recognised abductees. The remainder included people who Japanese public safety officials couldn’t reliably identify, such as missing persons and Japanese displaced by war, and onetime ethnic Korean residents of Japan who were ‘repatriated’ as part of a return-to-the-homeland movement.
Prime Minister Abe met with Mongolia’s Elbegdorj again on 22 July. What concrete details regarding the resolution of the abduction issue did the two leaders discuss? Japanese government officials have been racking their brains to come up with a plan that will please the family of Megumi Yokota, who have become the symbols to the Japanese public of all abductee families. Unfortunately, it is unknown whether Megumi is alive or dead. However, intergovernmental negotiations on the status of their granddaughter, Kim Eun-gyong, are underway. This is complicated by the handling of Kim Eun-gyong’s family (including her South Korean abduction victim husband and their daughter). It seems likely that Abe asked Elbegdorj for help with this issue.
There are four others who may be repatriated this time: Miyoshi Soga, Kyoko Matsumoto, Keiko Arimoto, and Minoru Tanaka. The Prime Minister’s office has long been studying possible scenarios. If the results of North Korea’s special investigation committee provide evidence of the survival of Keiko Arimoto and Miyoshi Soga and they wish to return to Japan, Abe would immediately fly to Pyongyang to bring them back.
If Abe can accomplish a surprise visit to North Korea and return with abductees — particularly before Okinawa’s November gubernatorial election — his approval rating would rise. But once the initial excitement dies down, the public will undoubtedly begin asking ‘what about Megumi Yokota?’ Thus, repatriation without poster child Megumi Yokota may not have the necessary effect on Abe’s approval rating, and, as more time passes, disappointment would grow. At least that is the pessimistic view of some of the Prime Minister’s staff. The risk for Abe to rush to Pyongyang solely for the return of Arimoto may be too high.
On 23 July, the Japanese edition of the Wall Street Journal ran an editorial warning: ‘If he is not careful, Mr Abe may only have a short time left as Japan’s Prime Minister’. While the tone of that article may be a little excessive, a falling approval rate and the loss in Shiga are undoubtedly troubling for Abe. The DPRK abduction issue is a possible remedy and it has become a nerve-wracking concern for the Abe government.
Takao Toshikawa is Chief Correspondent for The Oriental Economist Report.