The attempt on 28 September backfired; the use of tear gas against peaceful student protesters provoked an enthusiastic response. Many more people have taken part in the protests.
Despite months of official propaganda against the Occupy Central campaign, describing them as an illegal activity disrupting the local economy and plotting in vain to exert pressure on the central government, the Hong Kong people finally forced the CY Leung administration to negotiate, implicitly recognising the legitimacy of the protests.
It is not expected that Chinese leaders will agree to the two demands of the protesters: the resignation of CY Leung and the withdrawal of the decision of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee announced at the end of August.
The decision was opposed by the local community because despite the offer of universal suffrage, pro-Beijing elites will almost certainly win an absolute majority of seats in the Nomination Committee which decides the candidates who may run for election, and this absolute majority in turn will control the entire list of candidates. The people of Hong Kong will have no meaningful choice, and there will be no genuine competition in the election.
The protesters believe that they are not only fighting for a democratic electoral system, they are also trying to uphold their values, their lifestyles and their dignity. They do not want to allow Hong Kong to be reduced to merely another big city in mainland China.
The Chinese leaders want the Hong Kong community to realise the limits of the ’one country, two systems’ principle. The Hong Kong local economy is increasingly dependent on that of mainland China, and business elites have been toeing the Beijing line. The territory’s contributions to China’s modernisation, on the other hand, are seen to be less significant. As Hong Kong is considered expendable, Chinese leaders are reluctant to tolerate Hong Kong exceptionalism any longer.
In fact, since the massive protests against the Article 23 legislation in July 2003, Chinese authorities have become more worried about the territory’s political stability and its loyalty to the Party regime. This concern has led to more interference that in turn has generated more resentment among Hong Kong people, creating a vicious circle. This explains the lack of trust between the Chinese authorities and the local pro-democracy movement, and why no constructive dialogue between the two parties has been established on the issue of political reforms in the past 18 months.
The pro-democracy movement is prepared for a long-term struggle. It hopes to be able to launch wave after wave of peaceful, non-violent civil disobedience campaigns. It hopes that the Occupy Central campaign may be maintained for some months, with the occupation concentrated in the Admiralty area.
The strength of the protest activities has been its spontaneity, but this spontaneity also implies difficulties in co-ordination. Ensuring that the protesters speak with one voice and maintain unity in action will be the biggest challenge ahead. There are natural differences between the moderates and the radicals.
The ability of the pro-Beijing united front to mobilise support is not to be underestimated. It has powerful and resourceful machinery at its disposal, and it has overseen between four and six thousand civic groups in recent years. The United Front Department has been trying to smear pro-democracy activities, cajoling them with carrots and sticks, and attempting to defeat opposition by adopting a divide-and-rule approach. But this will not win the hearts and minds of the Hong Kong people.
All parties concerned want to avoid a Tiananmen Square type of scenario. But Hong Kong society will be further polarised. The political struggle of Hong Kong youths is perceived to have brought hope to the territory. Although the prospects for democracy are far from promising, the protesters demonstrate the Hong Kong spirit, which has been the foundation of the territory’s success story.
Joseph Cheng is Professor of Political Science at the City University of Hong Kong.