The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, ran for office in 2012 but lost to the KMT’s incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou. This time around, with the popularity of the KMT administration at a nadir and the DPP fresh from a landslide victory in the 2014 local elections, Tsai is the favourite to become the first female president of the Republic of China.
The KMT, by contrast, had difficulty coming up with a viable candidate. Hung threw herself into the KMT primary in an attempt to prompt heavyweight male candidates to throw their hats into the ring. KMT Chairman Eric Chu declined, citing his commitment to the constituents who had just re-elected him as Mayor of New Taipei City. The speaker of the Legislative Yuan (Taiwan’s parliament), Wang Jin-ping, was waiting to be recruited were Hung to fail to cross the threshold of 30 per cent support in the primary poll. Vice President Wu Dun-yih, the heir apparent who has been closely associated with President Ma’s lacklustre performance, didn’t even bother to test the waters.
While others have faltered or stumbled in their calculation, Hung’s straight talking and combative style appear to have rejuvenated the much-maligned KMT and its supporters, as she won the primary with 46 per cent of the poll. She far exceeded the minimum quota and, by default, becomes the KMT’s standard bearer in the upcoming presidential election.
Taiwan will not be the first Asian democracy to have a female president. The Philippines, Indonesia and South Korea have all elected women as head of state. And India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Thailand have experienced rule by female prime ministers in their respective parliamentary system.
Almost without exception, these female politicians have hailed from prominent political dynasties — the widow, the daughter or even the sister of famous male politicians.
Taiwan, too, used to have many female parliamentarians who came to power after their politician husband had been indicted for dissenting views or seditious activities. But they rarely advanced beyond the positions held by their husband. In the past, the KMT government prescribed gender quotas in both local assemblies and the national parliament. Now female candidates are as competitive as their male counterparts and no longer need the protection of a quota to ensure their representation. Former vice president Annette Lu, the highest ranking politician in Taiwan’s history so far, rose to power mostly on her own merits without the name recognition of a political family.
One of the most intriguing developments in the upcoming election, other than gender, is that the usual profile of candidates from the each major party seems to have been reversed. Tsai comes from a well-to-do business family and has enjoyed a relatively comfortable material lifestyle. Hung, though born in Taiwan, is the daughter of mainland Chinese parents. Her father was a victim of political persecution. During his three years in prison, Hung’s mother worked in a factory to eke out a living. Such a humble background, coloured by political victimisation, is usually reserved for DPP politicians.
Tsai’s academic credentials appear more like those of a KMT technocrat or scholar-turned-politician, similar to those of President Ma. Tsai graduated from the law department of the top National Taiwan University and went on to obtain a master’s degree from Cornell University Law School and a PhD from the London School of Economics. Hung went to the same high school as Tsai and studied law as well, but at the less prominent Chinese Culture University.
Tsai was recruited into the government as former president Lee Teng-hui’s national security advisor in the late 1990s, serving as deputy premier in the DPP’s Chen Shui-ban administration (2000–08). Hung, hailing from New Taipei City, is one of the most senior legislators in the parliament and is considered the leading authority on education issues. Her elevation to deputy speaker in 2012 appeared to be the apex of her career before her surprising candidacy this year. Again, Tsai’s English fluency and internationalist stance is typical of KMT candidates, while Hung’s grassroots leanings and local legislative focus can be seen in many DPP politicians.
Tsai exudes an intellectual arrogance and policy dogmatism that has earned her the moniker ‘Professor Tsai’. Hung, on the other hand, has been noted for her sharp tongue and tough stand on issues — hence her nickname, ‘little spicy pepper’. She possesses a confrontational approach that is usually associated with DPP lawmakers.
With the KMT’s devastating defeat in the 2014 local elections and the low approval rating of President Ma, the DPP appear well-placed to gain power with Tsai expected by many to become the next president of Taiwan. But the candidacy of Hung seems to have resurrected the KMT from their defeatism. Even with some encouraging poll numbers, Hung faces an uphill battle ahead. Yet more importantly, Taiwan will have Asia’s first all-women contest for head of state. This is a fascinating reversal of Taiwan’s usual political patterns, which — no doubt — is good for democracy.
Chen-shen J. Yen is a Research Fellow at the Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan.
“Hung’s grassroots leanings”
Since when? Hung is an insider’s insider, a mainlander and a servant of the KMT colonial elite who has adopted its unificationist ideology completely. She’s completely out of touch with Taiwan and its grassroots.
Her total lack of connection to the grassroots is in fact a serious problem for the KMT, with legislators already jumping ship to other parties or striking out on their own, because her strident, rigid, non-mainstream rhetoric threatens their positions. The KMT is splitting over her candidacy precisely because she has so little appeal outside the north where there are more pro-KMT voters.
Finally, it is not a foregone conclusion that Hung will run. The KMT has a party congress on the 19th of Jul and it looks like people are waiting to see if the Party pulls the plug on her. However, because she is strongly supported by the anti-Taiwan, pro-China, pro-unification hardline colonial core of the KMT, she may be retained as candidate even though she will likely do grave damage to the party’s legislative prospects (the legislative and presidential election are the same day). Hung is so damaging that the KMT recently attempted to have the elections separated to improve their chance to retain the legislature. Many observers are predicting that if Hung really gets the nomination, the Party will lose the legislature.
PS: Hung got 46% in the KMT poll for two reasons: (1)she’s such an awful candidate that many pro-DPPers participating the polls gleefully supported her and (2) the KMT’s method of creating 46% was basically to dump all undecideds from the final tally, inflating her numbers.
Finally, this comment:
“Tsai exudes an intellectual arrogance and policy dogmatism that has earned her the moniker ‘Professor Tsai’. Hung, on the other hand, has been noted for her sharp tongue and tough stand on issues — hence her nickname, ‘little spicy pepper’. She possesses a confrontational approach that is usually associated with DPP lawmakers.”
is completely clueless ideological cant. “Policy dogmatism” for Tsai? Evidence please. Tsai is so centrist that at one point before her rise in the DPP there was talk of her becoming President Ma’s running mate before the 2008 election.
All of this is on the internet and there are many fine writers and commentators who understand the situation very well. It’s a shame that EAF did not turn to one of them for a piece on this critical election.
Michael Turton
Tsai has not run for any local election or legislative seat. She was a non-constituency member on the party list one time. Hung, on the other hands, ran several times in New Taipei City and thus has had greater experience with grassroots politics.
Hung is indeed a lightweight in the KMT. While other heavyweights chose not to run and waited to be drafted, Hung at least had the courage to throw her hat into the ring. Those who felt she is not the ideal candidate should either run of persuade their preferred choice to run in the primary. They assumed Hung is not going to cross the threshold and waited for the draft to happen. When the draft did not happen, they tried to justify their stance against her by leaving or threatening to leave the party. So far, only one former legislator has done so.
If Tsai is not dogmatic and a centrist, she would have earned the confidence of the U.S. back in 2012 and maybe the presidential election as well. An example of her dogmatism is she claimed that China should work with Taiwan in announcing its replacement of entry permit with an IC card. She claimed that “normally, the entry document issue should be the result of a bilateral negotiation, but this time China has unilaterally made the announcement, showing that there are political motivations behind the move.” There is no IC card from Taiwan for mainlanders and thus precluding the need for joint announcement.
Please get the chronology right on the 2008 presidential election. Tsai already served as the Chair of Mainland Affairs Council (2000-2004), non-constituent legislator (2004-2006) and Vice Premier (2006-2007) under the DPP government. There was no possibility at all that she would be the running mate of Ma in 2008.
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“””If Tsai is not dogmatic and a centrist, she would have earned the confidence of the U.S. back in 2012 and maybe the presidential election as well.”””
She lost by six points, in a race against the richest political party in the world, which apparently forged government documents in an attempt to implicate her in a scandal, and was attacked by Obama Administration officials who were hoping for lucrative consulting work with China after they stepped down. And she had never run in a major election before.
Very obviously she was a centrist, since voters in the deep south turned out less for her, since they perceived her as not “independence oriented” enough. A large chunk of the electorate voted for her in 2012, and today, polls show that middle of the road voters prefer her by 2-1 margins to Hung, that under 50s prefer her to Hung, and that her overall lead on Hung at the moment is 20 points (see the latest TISR poll). Very obviously a centrist!
“”””There was no possibility at all that she would be the running mate of Ma in 2008.””””
And yet, people briefly talked about it.
More important than any of these quibbles is your claim that Hung has resurrected the party. That is flat out wrong, a serious and substantial misrepresentation of reality — The reality:
UDN, the former KMT party newspaper and deeply pro-KMT, on Hung today:
“”An exodus crisis has broken out in the KMT, as its localist legislators are revolting one by one, either quitting their campaigns or leaving the party altogether. A source within the party says that judging from the present blue breakup, the KMT may not even keep 30 seats (of 113) in the next election, losing half its indigenous district seats in the process. What the party should be thinking about is how it will continue and not break apart after the January 16 election, he said.”””
Many of us have been predicting that the KMT might not survive this election, given its lack of viable candidates, its lack of a viable party structure — it is the political organization of a colonial ruling class, not a true political party, the lack of leadership at the top, the lack of new blood, the fact that the local factions are not loyal but merely bought by patronage funds, and are now pressured by the KMT’s insistence on economic deals with China that appear to favor China, and the fact that its supporters are increasingly old. The young and the new political activists despise it — indeed, KMT party ID is declining rapidly at present, among most age groups and economic groups.
Now even the pro-KMT papers are saying that Hung will break the KMT…
Also this week several legislators have left or said they are leaving, like Chang Chia-chun in Yunlin, who said…
Chang said Hung’s “one China, same interpretation” policy involves questions of identity and will have a huge influence on local elections. “I can’t understand, how can Hung pop off such urgent unificationist statements?” she asked. She agreed with media evaluation that Hung’s candidacy represents the New Party-ization of the KMT and said that’s another reason she’s considering leaving. Chang believes that Hung should show respect for the KMT’s localist comrades when she speaks, because otherwise she will “absolutely cause the KMT to split.
Chang emphasized that she “cannot accept” discourse involving questions of personal identity that go beyond the social consensus, and Hung’s discourse “is making me seriously consider leaving the party.””””
The KMT is a mess. The pro-unification, pro-China, anti-Taiwan core of hardliners is supporting Hung, but the local factions on which KMT strength depends hate her because she is killing their chances to retain their seats. That is why many of them are trying to cut deals with the PFP. Just today local papers in Taichung reported that Red Faction leaders here are negotiating with James Soong to support him for the presidency, rather than the KMT.
Most of them are hanging back, waiting to see if Hung’s candidacy is killed by the Party Congress on July 19. But if the KMT retains her, there could be a huge exodus of factions from the KMT in the next few months.
The KMT can save itself, but it looks like the people at the top lack the flexibility and imagination to take the necessary steps. And there are too many people, especially among the pro-KMTers in Taipei, who live in a bubble universe where Hung is a very good thing and can’t believe they could lose. Look around you: your party is heading over a cliff.
Michael Turton
“Tsai has not run for any local election or legislative seat. She was a non-constituency member on the party list one time. Hung, on the other hands, ran several times in New Taipei City and thus has had greater experience with grassroots politics.”
Tsai did run for the mayoralty of New Taipei City in 2010. I’d say her inexperience showed. It may have been more relevant experience, though, compared to Hung’s legislative campaigns. Those were never head-to-head elections; they were in multi-member districts or she was on the party list.
Hung does seem to have invigorated part of the KMT, but not necessarily the part that needs it (the light-blue/centrist voters). It’s a risky move. She’s coming across as dogmatic in the way she insists that her proposed policy is a “one-China” framework when it sounds an awful lot like what everyone imagines a two-China framework would look like. If she were able to get the PRC to recognize the ROC it would be a big deal and quite popular in Taiwan, but it’s no more realistic than asking the PRC to recognize an independent Taiwan.
Tsai, in contrast, appears to be taking a quiet, long-term approach to the pan-green push for independence. I’d hardly call that arrogant or dogmatic – quite the opposite.
I suspect we’ll see something more happen on the pan-blue side, like Soong Chu-yu running for the PFP.
Since Hung became the candidate all of us have been watching Soong. He’s not disappointing:
Today the Taipei Times reports:
“”””“It is not that the PFP has turned ‘green,’” Soong said, addressing criticism that the party has aligned itself with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). “It is that we can no longer say for sure whether the KMT is lan [藍, blue] or just lan [爛, rotten].”
….
“The PFP is willing to stand by good KMT candidates, but if the KMT cannot break away from [President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) inner circle], we have no other choice but to field our own,” the chairman said.
When asked whether he would run for president, Soong said he would consider the possibility if the public calls for it, but added that it was not yet time to make a decision and he would continue to keep an eye on the KMT’s and the DPP’s policies.
Separately yesterday, KMT Legislator Cheng Ru-fen (鄭汝芬) of Changhua County said she would turn down the party’s legislative nomination. She is the seventh KMT lawmaker who has decided not to run for another term.””””””
Three lawmakers have crossed over to the PFP at the moment, 7 have decided not to run, and 2-3 others have left the party. The factions are slowly melting away. The PFP will surely collect some, if not most, as happened once before, fifteen years ago.
Soong probably can’t win either, though he will do better against Tsai than Hung, who has been on the party list the last two cycles and hasn’t had to face a vote. Before that she ran in a safe seat in Taipei. Unlike Soong or even Tsai, she has no experience putting together a coalition of different kinds of voters.
Many major media are running “Will the KMT split?” pieces, like RTI and The Journalist. Last night Next TV devoted two hours to discussing the KMT meltdown. Interestingly, the China Times is backing Hung totally.
Will the KMT save itself? As a longtime political watcher, I can’t wait to see what happens on the 19th. But as someone who loves Taiwan, I hope they stick with Hung.
Michael Turton