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Is Modi’s Middle East diplomacy enough?

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In Brief

India has revamped its Middle East policy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has laid the foundation for strategic interdependencies with the region by focusing on counterterrorism cooperation, deeper economic and security ties, and by engaging the large Indian diaspora. Well-timed visits to all key Middle Eastern states have prevented the Indian agenda from being hijacked by the region’s internal divisions and rivalries.

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But India’s economic and energy reliance on the region necessitates a larger strategic presence. It is crucial that India avoids being crowded out by old and new entrants like Russia, China and Pakistan.

Modi’s visits to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates resulted in stronger security partnerships, with the resultant joint statements expanding cooperation. Saudi Arabia and India agreed on ‘the need to intensify bilateral defence cooperation, through exchange of visits by military personnel and experts, conduct of joint military exercises, [and] exchange of visits of ships and aircrafts’. And they made an unprecedented agreement to jointly develop arms and ammunition in India.

On terrorism, Modi not only garnered support for the adoption of India’s proposed Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism at the UN, but also gained recognition for India’s security concerns vis-à-vis Pakistan. Both statements referred to ‘states using religion to justify, support and sponsor terrorism against other countries [and] give religious and sectarian colour to political issues and disputes, including in West and South Asia’.

While this was a diplomatic victory for New Delhi, it also highlights the importance the Gulf states place on elevating ties with India. Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s close ties with Pakistan have always eclipsed their relations with India. But Islamabad’s refusal to commit greater military support to Saudi Arabia’s regional policies opened the opportunity for New Delhi to reshape these partnerships. As the Gulf looks for alternative security partners, an elevated Indian profile in the region will allow New Delhi to ensure its place in the region.

This new impetus to build security ties with the Gulf also saw the onset of negotiations over an Internal Security Cooperation pact between India and Bahrain in February 2015. Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar visited Oman and the UAE from 20–23 May 2016, making him the first Indian defence minister to travel to the UAE. Ahead of his visit, an Indian flotilla of warships was dispatched to the Persian Gulf on 3 May, with tours to the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. Another Indian warship visited Iran’s Bandar Abbas port at the same time.

Yet it will be Modi’s Qatar visit in June 2016 that will serve as the litmus test for elevating India’s strategic profile in the region. There has been much speculation about India–Qatar security ties since the two countries signed a security cooperation agreement in 2008. The expansive agreement committed India as a security provider to Qatar and was hailed as ‘just short of stationing Indian troops in the region’.

Despite a vast mandate, there has been little movement between the two countries in the defence realm. But rising stakes in counterterrorism cooperation, intelligence sharing and maritime security will continue to raise the bar in terms of expanding defence relationships between India and the Gulf.

As India strives to consolidate the security dimension of its partnerships with the Gulf countries, relations with Iran remain primarily economic. Modi’s landmark visit to Iran in May 2016 saw the two countries sign 12 agreements, including one on the strategically critical Chabahar Port. Yet any progress on enhancing the security relationship was missing from the dialogue. This lack of security ties has undermined India’s strategic partnership with Iran. A lackadaisical Indian policy towards Afghanistan has also impacted India’s standing in Iran’s strategic calculus.

India and Iran’s strategic convergence on Afghanistan received a boost with the establishment of the Trilateral Transport and Transit Corridor on 23 May 2016. The agreement, inked between the leaders of India, Iran and Afghanistan, opens up a number of commercial opportunities for the three countries. It also offers a strategic alternative to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, operated by China since 2013. But further maturation of ties between the three countries will require New Delhi to reinvent its approach to Kabul. It will be crucial for India to emerge as a critical partner in the stability of Afghanistan.

Unlike India, China has shown greater willingness to both use chequebook diplomacy and expand its security presence in Afghanistan and the Middle East. China, for instance, was quick to capitalise on a sanction-free Iran. President Xi Jinping’s visit in January 2016 led to 17 deals in nuclear energy, oil drilling and infrastructure projects that connect Iran with its ambitious One Belt, One Road project. China has also conducted naval exercises with Iran and its fighter jets have refuelled in Iran.

As greater integration emerges between China–Iran–Pakistan and China–Iran–Russia, India’s regional diplomacy must supplement a larger strategy that supports its geopolitical interests in the Middle East.

Kanchi Gupta is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

One response to “Is Modi’s Middle East diplomacy enough?”

  1. I hope Modi realizes what a complicated and potentially dangerous process he is engaging in. The Saudis and Iranians are rivals struggling for hegemony in the context of the Shia/Sunni hatred. Can he build alliances and share info and anti terror efforts with both sides while depending on the oil from the ME? GOOD LUCK!

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