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Contradictions of Duterte’s presidency

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In Brief

Less than three months into his term, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is confronting a paradox of power. Duterte has amassed enough political capital to radically reform and revitalise the country’s emaciated institutions.

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He has swiftly expanded his grip on the Philippine political system, making him arguably the country’s most powerful president since the fall of the Ferdinand Marcos regime.

Not long ago, Duterte was dismissed as a political outsider with little foothold in mainstream Philippine politics. Now he enjoys a ‘super-majority’ in the legislature that, in the view of some critics, has been reduced to a presidential rubber stamp. The Filipino leader has also partly defanged a historically weak and underfunded judiciary, which has struggled to put breaks on his root-and-branch campaign against drugs.

In fact, over the next few years, Duterte will be appointing the majority of Supreme Court justices, which will further enhance the executive’s influence over the  guardians of constitutionalism. As the commander-in-chief, the firebrand Filipino president has also been on a charm-offensive with the armed forces and law enforcement agencies.

The Philippine National Police (PNP) has welcomed his uncompromising anti-crime rhetoric and his unconditional support. Ronald Dela Rosa, Duterte’s former lieutenant in Davao City, currently leads the PNP — which has been promised better compensation, equipment, training and legal protection.

The Armed Forces of the Philippines — which has a history of tense relations with the government — seems to have also warmed to the former mayor of Davao who has promised to expand their health benefits and emergency care, double their salaries and take care of their families.

In one month, Duterte visited 14 military camps, underscoring the significance he attaches to winning the hearts and minds of those in uniform. Almost every important speech made by Duterte has been delivered before the military, many of whom have been enamoured by his tough talk. He has made it clear that the military will be in the loop when it comes to the discussion of key national issues, particularly Duterte’s ‘shock and awe’ offensive against illegal drugs and organised crime.

Duterte has also built inroads with civil society, mainly thanks to his appointment of leading environmentalists and leftist activists to cabinet positions. Progressive sections of civil society now enjoy unprecedented influence in several departments, including the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, the Department of Agrarian Reform, the Department of Labor and Employment, and the Department of Social Welfare and Development.

Make no mistake, Duterte also enjoys significant popularity within the electorate. The latest survey put his trust rating at 91 per cent, the highest on record. Though his approval ratings are unlikely to hold this high in the future, Duterte’s single-minded crackdown on drug-pushers seems to have struck a chord with a huge section of the populace who have been yearning for a more decisive — if not autocratic — brand of leadership.

Yet Duterte’s strongman populism has also been accompanied by growing tensions in the realm of foreign policy, particularly with regards to the West. Over the past few weeks, the Philippines’ foul-mouthed president has been caught in one diplomatic dust-up after the other, first with the United States’ Ambassador, then US President Barack Obama and most recently the European Union Commission.

The main point of contention is growing international concern over the state of human rights in the country amid Duterte’s aim to eliminate the proliferation of drugs within his first year in office. Washington and Brussels — along with human rights groups, major local and international media outlets and liberal intelligentsia — have expressed increasingly tough criticisms of any scorched earth strategy to combat drugs.

Instead of backing down, the Duterte administration has vowed to divert the Philippines’ foreign relations away from the West to instead favour the Eastern powers. Ahead of his October visit to China, Duterte has dangled the prospects of deeper military cooperation with the Asian juggernaut, while cancelling joint patrols with America in the contested waters of the South China Sea.

The Filipino leader has even threatened to expel US Special Forces from the conflict-ridden island of Mindanao, where Filipino troops have been waging an escalating war against extremist groups. Amid the commotion, the stock market is down to its lowest in months due to growing political uncertainty, with major business groups warning of the economic fallout of Duterte’s ‘war on drugs’ and diplomatic confrontation with the West.

Leading credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s are already warning about creeping erosion in policy predictability under the new administration, which has struggled to focus its considerable political capital on the most urgent priorities. Still, the Duterte administration is expected to enjoy significant popularity and institutional influence for the foreseeable future.

Many hope that Duterte will gradually shift his attention to key challenges such as infrastructure development, investment and poverty alleviation as he begins to learn more about the requirements of national governance.

Richard Javad Heydarian is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at De La Salle University, Manila.

2 responses to “Contradictions of Duterte’s presidency”

  1. By courting the military and the PNP it seems as if Duterte is trying to ensure that he is not overthrown, let alone assassinated, by two of the major institutions whose support he needs to continue to enforce his war on drugs. Will he moderate his behavior towards the USA and the EU or will he court the PRC as a way to counter the concerns that the former have about his actions? And will he ‘learn more about the requirements of national governance’ in order to address the kinds of concerns noted at the end of this article? Or will he continue to be a ‘strong man’ populist? Time will tell.

  2. The tragic farce of the first three months of the Duterte experience does have one redeeming feature. Hopefully it will provide a salutary warning to voters across the Pacific in the November US presidential elections. They, especially sincere conservative Republicans, need to dispel themselves of the illusion that an intellectually-challenged, delusional demagogue, with scant regard for justice let alone democracy, can somehow be controlled once he is elected to the highest office in the nation. Counter-balancing institutions are only as strong as those who control them and work within them.

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