While attention is currently focused on the Korean peninsula on account of North Korea’s development of ballistic missiles capable of hitting the United States, the crisis over Taiwan is quietly brewing in the background. Indeed, it is over Taiwan that the United States and China could potentially come into direct conflict.
For China, Taiwan represents unfinished business from the Chinese civil war and an emotionally charged nationalist issue that far outranks tensions in North Korea, the Senkaku Islands and the South China Sea. For a rising great power that is increasingly confident, assertive and nationalistic, the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland is its top, non-negotiable national priority.
The sweeping electoral victory of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the January 2016 elections in Taiwan, winning both the presidency and a majority in the legislature, has set Taiwan on a collision course with a Chinese administration that is increasingly impatient for reunification to occur. The result set off shock-waves in China, as it represented the failure of its strategy of winning over the Taiwanese people through economic integration; a policy it pursued in cooperation with the previous Kuomintang (KMT) government. In choosing the DPP, the Taiwanese electorate has sent a strong message of repudiation to China.
The increasing economic integration with China as a result of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in 2010, and the prospect of even closer integration through the subsequent signing of a services agreement, alarmed many Taiwanese, who fear being dominated economically by China and do not want large numbers of mainland Chinese in Taiwan.
Greater contact with mainland Chinese in recent years has accentuated the different identities on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwanese society, which is civil, polite, considerate and democratic (a mirror image of its former colonial power, Japan), has been shocked at the uncivil attitudes of some Chinese visitors. The Taiwanese have also watched the failure of ‘one country, two systems’ in Hong Kong, where a sense of alienation from China led to the Occupy Movement in 2014 and the emergence of a nascent independence movement.
The new DPP government under Tsai Ing-wen has signalled it will not push for independence. But it is undertaking various initiatives that strengthen Taiwan’s de facto independence from China: diversifying its economy to reduce dependence on China, increasing military spending and developing its own weapons systems, such as submarines.
The strategic context of intensifying US–China rivalry due to China’s rise and its challenge to US hegemony over East Asia has meant that Taiwan has increasingly assumed greater strategic significance to the United States. Although the new US president, Donald Trump, initially attempted to woo China in the hope that it would help the United States deal with North Korea, the most recent developments suggest that the Trump administration will eventually harden its position on China.
In June 2017, the US Senate voted to allow US warships to visit Taiwan, and a US$1.4 billion arms sales package was also approved. Given the strong anti-China sentiments in the US Congress, it is unlikely that the United States would fail to respond to any use of force by China over Taiwan. The United States is also aware that a takeover of Taiwan by China would significantly alter the regional status quo, with immense consequences for regional and global security.
Unlike the previous Taiwan Strait crises in the 1950s and 1995–96, another Taiwan Strait crisis today would be fraught with immense risks. The huge asymmetry in military force in favour of China provides China with a military option it did not previously have. The US strategy drawn up to counter China, known as Air Sea Battle (subsequently renamed as the Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons or JAM-GC), envisages direct attacks on the Chinese mainland, targeting command centres and critical military nodes — surely a recipe for rapid escalation into a nuclear exchange. Any precipitous move by China in the near future could result in a series of uncertain and unwanted outcomes.
Any conflict over Taiwan would also pose huge challenges for US allies now heavily dependent on China economically, including Australia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. One only hopes that the key player here — namely, China — will eventually develop the confidence to temper its own nationalism and, through its restraint and adherence to peaceful measures and regional norms in the pursuit of its national interests, win broad legitimacy for its role as a regional great power and force for stability.
Andrew Tan is Associate Professor with the Department of Security Studies and Criminology at Macquarie University.
The United States needs to know if China’s ‘carrier killer missiles’ really work. The easiest way to find out is for a United States carrier strike group to visit Taiwan via the Taiwan Strait.
No doubt the piece is an interesting analysis of the contemporary issues in Taiwan. But there are serious lapses.
1 “Given the strong anti-China sentiments in the US Congress, it is unlikely that the United States would fail to respond to any use of force by China over Taiwan.. Indeed, it is over Taiwan that the United States and China could potentially come into direct conflict”.
In my view, this is not a crisis but only a little storm in a tea cup as long as Taiwan does not declare Independence. If it did, then all Hell will break lose.
The US is unlikely to intervene in any war over a disputed territory, after a civil war unless it wants a full scale “fire and fury” nuclear war with China, which is a far more formidable foe than the DPRK. And Russia has to come to China’s aid because if China loses the war, heavens forbid, then Russia is next on the Menu.
China cannot possibly lose as she has successfully tested many hypersonic nuclear bombers, EACH of which can rain 8 nukes over targets in the US at 10 times the speed of sound, after a guided re-entry from a sub-orbital flight. The DPRK does not have such a technology yet. And so far the US has no defense against hypersonic bombers which are being deployed by China and Russia. The THAAD, deployed by the US, has no missile that can intercept any target that travels at 10 times the speed of sound.
2 It is true that “For China, Taiwan represents unfinished business from the Chinese civil war” but it is not “an emotionally charged nationalist issue” as President Xi has said in a conciliatory tone during the historic meeting with President Ma in Singapore on 7 Nov 2015, that “China and Taiwan are brothers. The bones may be broken but we are united by flesh.”
3 It is also true that “the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland is its top, non-negotiable national priority.” It is, in fact, China’s core interest and Donald Trump understands that now, after an initial kerfuffle when he took the bait from President Tsai to potentially denounce the ‘One China Policy’.
4 “The sweeping electoral victory of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the January 2016 election in Taiwan .. has set Taiwan on a collision course with a Chinese administration that is increasingly impatient for reunification to occur.“
This is not true as the DPP’s electoral victory has turned out to be a damp Squib. President Tsai’s approval rating has dropped precipitously because Taiwan risks being left out of the lucrative multi-trillion dollar Belt & Road Initiatives(BRI).
Though under the One China Policy Taiwan has a pole position to benefit enormously from the BRI, all bets are now off. Because of her intransigence President Tsai was not even invited to attend the launched of the BRI earlier this year.
5 It is also questionable that “In choosing the DPP, the Taiwanese electorate has sent a strong message of repudiation to China.”
Given that elections always reflect reality on the ground, it is more likely that the Taiwanese electorate sent a strong message of repudiation of the KMT for Taiwan’s moribund economy.
6 “Taiwanese society, which is civil, polite, considerate and democratic (a mirror image of its former colonial power, Japan), has been shocked at the uncivil attitudes of some Chinese visitors.”
Why tar 1.4 billion Chinese people over the “uncivil attitudes of SOME Chinese visitors? If the Taiwanese society is so civil, polite, considerate and democratic then how does one explain the uncivilized and violent behaviours of members of the Taiwan legislature who routinely fought one and another with fists, elbows and chairs during acrimonious ‘parliamentary’ debates?
If the Japanese are ever so civil, polite, considerate and democratic how could they possibly have invaded China from 1931 to 1945 and killed an estimated 25 million innocent people, committing atrocities, genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity by forcing hundreds of thousands of young women to work as sex slaves in Korea, China, Malay and Indonesia to serve Japanese troops?
7 “The Taiwanese have also watched the failure of ‘one country, two systems’ in Hong Kong, where a sense of alienation from China led to the Occupy Movement in 2014 and the emergence of a nascent independence movement.”
This is simply not true. The occupy movement is another “colour revolution”, orchestrated and funded by some egregious NGOs in the United States and it has failed because MAJORITY of the people of Hong Kong support the ‘one country, two system’ arrangement and do not support any independence movement at all.
8”The new DPP government under Tsai Ing-wen has signalled it will not push for independence.”
She has come to the realization that a push for independence is a push down a slippery slope and it could pave the way for a nuclear war between the two whales, even though it is unlikely. She intuitively knows that when the two whales make love, the shrimp (Taiwan) will be squashed. What if the two whales make war? The shrimp will be obliterated. So she knows that peace is a better option.
9 “Any conflict over Taiwan would also pose huge challenges for US allies now heavily dependent on China economically, including Australia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore.”
This is not true for Singapore. The last time I checked, Singapore has been a member of the Non-Aligned Movement since 1970 and is a friend to all powers, big and small.
A well-written critique, from a People’s Republic of China perspective (eg the Occupy Movement in Hong Kong being funded by US interests). It is true most Hong Kongers know independence won’t work, but many are rather unhappy with how things have turned out – the communist party certainly has much work to do there to win them over. But of course China can be patient and does have plenty of time for this to work since it has sovereign control over the territory.
The Sunflower Movement in Taiwan (2014) which was overtly anti-China and laid the groundwork for the electoral results in 2016, was certainly genuine and not funded by foreign interests. Again, there is much work for the communist party in winning the Taiwanese over, though it could start by acknowledging and then addressing the concerns of many Taiwanese.
Singapore, by the way, has always been a strong and reliable US ally (re. comprehensive security agreements in 2005 and 2015), has taken a position on the South China Sea that is at variance with China’s, and hosts the US Navy’s latest warships and anti-submarine warfare aircraft. Singapore has been left out of OBOR (though there has been a recent public debate in Singapore amongst its top foreign affairs diplomats over its response / position on China). How long Singapore can maintain this relationship with the United States in the face of China’s rise and pressure asserted by China on it remains to be seen.
As for the US being unwilling to help Taiwan in a crisis, or losing a conflict once it has started, the question must be: what if China’s assumptions on this are wrong, and it miscalculates on this? History is in fact replete with miscalculations leading to major conflict. Won’t it be better for China to acknowledge the concerns of the Taiwanese, be patient and try a new, more sophisticated approach to winning them over, since true reunification can only occur if the Taiwanese themselves wanted it? Indeed, if the majority of Taiwanese wanted it (and it is a democracy), the United States would be powerless to intervene even if it wanted to.
1 “A well-written critique, from a People’s Republic of China perspective(eg the Occupy Movement in Hong Kong being funded by US interests).”
Thank you but why imply that I write from the People’s Republic of China’s perspective when I characterise myself as an independent commentator on Asian Affairs?
2 If you are still not convinced the Occupy Movement was funded by US interests, suggest read American writer, Mr F. William Engdahl’s piece “Hong Kong’s umbrellas are Made in USA”. He wrote, to wit,:
“The “umbrellas” for Hong Kong’s ongoing Umbrella Revolution are made in Washington. Proof of that lies not only in the obscenely-rapid White House open support of Occupy Central just hours after it began, following the same model they used in Ukraine. The US State Department and NGOs it finances have been quietly preparing these protests for years. Consider just the tip of the Washington Hong Kong “democracy” project.”
“Same dirty old cast of characters… With almost by-now-boring monotony, Washington has unleashed another of its infamous Color Revolutions. US Government-steered NGOs and US-trained operatives are running the entire Hong Kong “Occupy Central” protests, ostensibly in protest of the rules Beijing has announced for Hong Kong’s 2017 elections. The Occupy Central Hong Kong protest movement is being nominally led by a 17-year-old student, Joshua Wong, who resembles a Hong Kong version of Harry Potter, a kid who was only just born the year Britain reluctantly ended its 99-year colonial occupation, ceding the city-state back to the Peoples’ Republic. Behind these Hong Kong faces, the US State Department and its favorite NGO, the US Congress-financed National Endowment for Democracy (NED), via its daughter, the National Democratic Institute (NDI), is running the Occupy Central operation.” Unquote.
3 “It is true most Hong Kongers know independence won’t work, but many are rather unhappy with how things have turned out..”
According to Martin Jacques, the British author, “A 2016 Chinese University of Hong Kong poll showed 17% supported independence from China, nearly 60% opposed independence and 23% were “ambivalent.” The people who are unhappy and want independence are in the minority. Why they did not migrate to Britain as British citizens then, prior to the 1997 handover of Hong Kong, is a mystery.
4 “But of course China can be patient and does have plenty of time for this to work since it has sovereign control over the territory.”
That I agree.
5 “The Sunflower Movement in Taiwan (2014) which was overtly anti-China and laid the groundwork for the electoral results in 2016, was certainly genuine and not funded by foreign interests.”
But it contradicts your claim that “Taiwanese society is civil, polite, considerate and democratic”. And if all Taiwanese are allegedly anti-China why would the Taiwan Investment Commission bother to approve a total of 252 China-bound investment applications in 2016?
6 “Singapore, by the way, has always been a strong and reliable US ally ..”
This is not true. The Opinion Page editor of The Straits Times, Ms Chua Mui Hoong, wrote in the piece “3 myths about Singapore-China ties” that “On the security front, Singapore, as a small city-state, wants to be friends with all big powers. Its Changi base, for example, is open to other navies, not just America’s. When Mr Lee Kuan Yew was interviewed for the book One Man’s View Of The World a few years ago, he made the point that one day, Singapore would be prepared to host the Chinese navy there too. That was his stand. It is not common knowledge, but today, China also makes use of the Changi base, sending its navy ships there for refuelling. Singapore also conducts bilateral military and navy training exercises with China.”
7 “has taken a position on the South China Sea that is at variance with China’s,”
This is simply not true. Dr Tommy Koh, Singapore’s Ambassador at large, reiterated at a public forum in China that Singapore does not take sides in the South China Sea issue, nor is it aligned with or against any of the major powers. He assured his Chinese audience that “the bottom line is this: Singapore will never allow its relationship with any major power to harm China”.
Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/tommy-koh-rebuts-view-that-singapore-has-acted-against-china
8 “Singapore has been left out of OBOR”.
This is also not true. National Development Minister Lawrence Wong attended the BRI Forum and Singapore is still China’s top foreign investor, and China is Singapore’s largest trading partner.
9 “As for the US being unwilling to help Taiwan in a crisis, or losing a conflict once it has started, the question must be: what if China’s assumptions on this are wrong, and it miscalculates on this?
If there is any miscalculation on either side, then that could usher in WW3, which will no doubt please the global banker elites who will profit enormously from the nuclear conflagration (if the world as we know it still exists) because war is a racket, wrote Mr Paul Craig Roberts, a former Treasury official in the Reagan administration. But the US and Chinese military bosses are not that stupid.
10 “Won’t it be better for China to acknowledge the concerns of the Taiwanese, be patient and try a new, more sophisticated approach to winning them over, since true reunification can only occur if the Taiwanese themselves wanted it? “
I agree. China has already made a compromise with the KMT and there will be peace across the Taiwan Straits if President Tsai adheres to the ‘1992 Consensus’. But don’t hold your breath.
How is Taiwan the problem? It is clear that ambitions of Mr Xi and his threats to attack Taiwan is the problem. If that were not the case then there would be no problem.