As predicted, the US reaction was quick and strong. President Donald Trump threatened that the United States will rain ‘fire and fury’ upon North Korea if it is to attack.
For China, this turn of events has heightened the urgency of addressing the North Korea nuclear issue. Among other things, it has increased the likelihood of a US pre-emptive strike against North Korea. And, even if the United States refrains from doing so, harsher sanctions as well as more frequent and larger military exercises are on the cards. In turn, this would sharply increase the chances of a military conflict and of a crisis erupting in North Korea.
China has already stepped up its efforts to implement UN sanctions against North Korea. Importantly, Beijing has suspended coal imports from North Korea, which is generally believed to be a key source of Pyongyang’s income. China hopes that North Korea will see the light and accept China’s ‘two suspensions’ proposal, meaning that North Korea would suspend nuclear and missile tests in exchange for suspension of joint US–South Korea military exercises. Beijing believes this is the only way to cool down the situation and pave the way for resuming dialogue and negotiation between the two sides.
But North Korea has largely ignored China’s efforts. Pyongyang has not only continued with missile tests, but also publicly vowed to destroy Guam with nuclear weapons if the United States uses force against it. The omens of war on the Korean peninsula loom larger by the day.
When war becomes a real possibility, China must be prepared. And, with this in mind, China must be more willing to consider talks with concerned countries on contingency plans.
The United States and South Korea have long tried to persuade China to hold talks on contingency planning. So far Beijing has resisted the idea for fear of upsetting and alienating Pyongyang. But, given recent developments, Beijing may have no better choice than to start talking with Washington and Seoul.
In any such talks, the first issue that Beijing may wish to talk about is who would control North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal. After all, these weapons are too dangerous to be left in the hands of a North Korean army caught in political chaos.
On the one hand, China may not be opposed to the idea that the US military do the job since this would prevent proliferation. North Korea’s nuclear weapons are of no technological value and it would be very costly to take care of them.
On the other hand, China may have a problem with the US military crossing the 38th parallel, reviving memories of the Korean War in the early 1950s. On balance, China may wish to take care of the nuclear weapons itself. The United States may accept this for the reasons of non-proliferation and cost. The US does not have the same historical baggage against the Chinese military taking such actions in North Korea.
The second issue Beijing might wish to talk about is how to deal with the expected refugee problem. Beijing may accept the suggestion that the People’s Liberation Army march across China’s border with North Korea to create a safety zone in order to build shelters for refugees and stem a massive refugee inflow into China’s northeast.
The third issue Beijing may wish to talk about is who is to restore domestic order in North Korea in the event of a crisis. The South Korean forces? The UN peacekeeping forces? Or some other forces? China would probably object to US forces doing the job because that would require the US military crossing the 38th parallel.
The fourth issue Beijing may wish to discuss is the post-crisis political arrangements of the Korean peninsula. Should international society set up a new government for North Korea? Or should it endorse a UN-sponsored peninsula-wide plebiscite on reunification in preparation for a united Korea?
Finally, Beijing may also wish to talk about the removal of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from the peninsula when Pyongyang’s nuclear program is gone. Beijing believes that the system undermines China’s security and has urged the United States and South Korea to remove it. Washington and Seoul are likely to accept the idea. After all, both have repeatedly claimed that the deployment of the THAAD system is nothing more than a response to North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
As before, China does not wish to face a crisis situation in North Korea because it threatens a nuclear war, political turmoil, a massive refugee problem and other unpredictable negative consequences. But as the situation on the Korean peninsula deteriorates, China has no alternative but to get prepared.
Jia Qingguo is Professor of diplomacy and international relations and Dean of the School of International Studies, Peking University.
This is an important articulation of what must surely have been longstanding, if quietly articulated, analysis among China’s top strategic thinkers. But Prof. Jia raises these issues publicly which suggests to me that the PRC is getting increasingly frustrated with the DPRK’s provocative and destabilizing behavior. Today’s vote in the UNSC for tougher sanctions provides some hope for US-PRC cooperation in dealing with what is surely the biggest challenge to regional stability in Northeast Asia today.
There is one other element the author fails to note: that the PRC might, quietly of course, actually work to undermine and possibly replace the Kim regime. That would truly be a revolutionary event!
The truth is that the world community wants peace. This truth should be respected by every country.The manufacturing of nuclear bombs by North Korea is a threat to the World peace. North Korea wants its nuclear programming recognized by every country in the world.The US does not want to recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons manufacturing country.So, the tussle between the Us and North Korea has occurred.
North Korea needs to be reasonable. At least, it should not venture to create condition that will disturb much sought world peace.Hence, it has to stop its programmes of manufacturing nuclear bombs.
There are several problems for China if we follow Prof. Jia’s line of thinking. China and North Korea are still nevertheless in a quasi-alliance relationship, the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty still stand until 2021. If China preempts the war to discuss the post-war arrangements with NK’s potential enemies, then it will be a direct violation of the article 3 of the treaty and Chinese credibility and image will suffer immensely, and the overhaul of decades of efforts to cultivate a friendly image with a fellow socialist country could potentially be destabilizing domestically. That being said, China can, in theory, privatly engage with US and SK, but this action also carries huge risk as there is no guarantee that US or SK will in the future deem that threatening to leak that past to the public could provide significant leverage over China. The question is whether the usually risk-averse China now frustrated enough to judge the war is imminent, unavoidable and therefore forced to preempt with US and SK? Unfortunately, there are simply not enough signs to suggest we have already passed that threshold.
It is not the DPRK causing the crisis. The crisis has been manufactured by Trump through bellicose rhetoric and belligerent actions. China had best wake up and get tough with Trump–or face dire consequences. That is, if China (and Russia) refuse to get in Trump’s way, a war with America will become inevitable. The only way to deal with a bully is to get tough and mean. Otherwise, the bully will become emboldened to cause even more trouble….
Right, Trump has been railing against the NK nuclear program since the 1990s, correct? Go see your therapist about Trump Derangement Syndrome. The problem is the guy in the bad suit who thinks that having a couple (even a score) of nuclear weapons makes him a world player. Maybe if the crazy NK leaders would feed their own people they might have an economy that produces something the world wants, like their south Korean cousins do.
I have been on the Korean Peninsula and I have experienced life in country. Most people are like any other people in the world. Life, work, family, and security are the basic needs.
I would like to see a combined peacekeeping/Law Enforcement force to control both the south and the north, consisting of Chinese, North and South Korean and NATO forces enforcing agreed upon Laws and directives. I would also like to see the people of both North and South Korea Vote to install the type of Government they wish.
Umm, don’t the South Koreans already have free and fair elections?
“After all, these weapons are too dangerous to be left in the hands of a North Korean army caught in political chaos.”
That’s a big assumption on two counts. The first that in the event of war those weapons would remain unused and the second that attempting to take them off the hands of the North Korean army would not see them used. This is one of the fundamental problems with disarmament via military action: it induces a “use ’em or lose ’em” attitude in the one you are attempting to disarm.